Ramblings: Oilers Live to Play Another Day, Defensemen Falling in the Roto Rankings (Jun 16)

Ian Gooding

2024-06-16

The Edmonton Oilers staved off elimination in the most convincing possible way in an 8-1 rout of the Florida Panthers in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final. Call it the magic of Shania Twain, who rocked the Edmonton crowd before the game.

Connor McDavid was finally able to score his first goal of the series while also adding three assists with a plus-2. McDavid had registered three assists over the first three games of the series. McDavid has six goals during the playoffs, which isn't even in the top 10 in playoff goals. In fact, he has fewer goals than the likes of Valeri Nichushkin and Brock Boeser, who were eliminated two rounds earlier.

However, McDavid now has 32 assists in the playoffs, breaking Wayne Gretzky's all-time record of assists in a playoff season (31), set in 1988. I don't think McDavid wins the Conn Smythe since it is usually awarded to a player on the winning team and the Oilers still have a very deep hole to climb out of, but he might at least receive some consideration.

Dylan Holloway scored a pair of goals and added an assist with a plus-3. Holloway had not registered a point in his previous nine games, yet playing on a scoring line with Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins helped him generate some offense in this game. The 22-year-old Holloway has played fewer than 100 regular-season NHL games and has just 18 regular-season points, so it appears he will need further development before he can be widely rostered in fantasy leagues. Look for some growth to occur next season, though.

Other goal scorers for the Oilers were Nugent-Hopkins, Mattias Janmark, Adam Henrique, Darnell Nurse, and Ryan McLeod. Draisaitl and Zach Hyman each picked up two assists.

More on Nurse later, but a weird playoff stat from him: He took six shots in Game 4, but he did not register a single shot on goal in his previous four playoff games and had taken just two shots over his previous seven playoff games. Nurse usually averages just over two shots per game. Perhaps having his cousin and PWHL star Sarah Nurse in the audience helped.

The Oilers had scored just four goals in the first three games of the series, and those goals were from McLeod, Mattias Ekholm, Warren Foegele, and Philip Broberg. All due respect to those players, but those aren't the guys that will lead a team to the Stanley Cup.

Draisaitl, Hyman, and Nugent-Hopkins all entered Game 4 without a point in this series. Hyman and Draisaitl, who were the two leading goal scorers for the Oilers during the regular season, are still without a goal in the Stanley Cup Final.

On the Panthers' side, Sergei Bobrovsky was pulled in the second period after allowing five goals on 16 shots. Bobrovsky's run of six consecutive quality starts came to an end with just his third really bad start of the playoffs. Goalie Bob had a .953 SV% over the first three games of the series, but it dipped all the way down to .912 after the Oilers finally figured out how to score on him in Game 4. He still has to be considered a strong Conn Smythe Trophy favorite, as he has a 71.4 quality start percentage during the playoffs.  

Anthony Stolarz took over from Bobrovsky, allowing three goals on 19 shots. Game 4 was the first action that Stolarz has seen during the playoffs, so getting Bob out of there for a bit of a rest wasn't a bad idea.

Vladimir Tarasenko scored the lone goal for the Panthers in Game 4, giving him goals in back-to-back games and points in three consecutive games.

Anton Lundell, who assisted on Tarasenko's goal, has six points over his last six playoff games. Lundell is fourth on the Panthers and tenth overall in playoff scoring with 16 points in 21 games, so congratulations if you added him as a sleeper in your playoff pool.

Sam Bennett's six-game point streak came to an end in Game 4.

Interestingly enough, the situation in the Stanley Cup Final mirrors that of the NBA Final. The Dallas Mavericks are down to the Boston Celtics 3-1 in the series, but the Mavericks won big in Game 4 by a score of 122-84.

The two teams now rack up more heavy frequent flier miles with the long journey back to Florida for Game 5 on Tuesday. If this series happens to go seven games, the final will end just FOUR days before the NHL draft, which ends TWO days before free agency begins. The NHL really has to space its offseason activity out more. Everything happens in late June and of course on July 1, then mostly a whole lot of nothing for 2+ months. Hurry up and wait for the next NHL season to start, everyone!

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The Top 100 Roto Rankings are now up for June! You can view them here.

I paid close attention to defensemen in particular when ranking players this month. Here are three in particular that fell down the rankings.

Darnell Nurse

We shouldn't always put too much stock into playoff results, but Nurse's playoff performance has me wondering whether he's in store for a somewhat diminished role with the Oilers going forward in spite of his $9 million cap hit. Nurse averaged nearly 22 minutes of icetime during the regular season, but during the playoffs he has averaged just 19 minutes while mainly paired with Cody Ceci, a duo that has struggled more than any other defensive pairing for the Oilers (CF 40.8%). Plus/minus might not reveal much, but Nurse is down to a minus-11 in the playoffs after a plus-3 regular season (Nurse was a plus-3 in the Game 4 rout).

Nurse has also scored just five points in 22 playoff games (with two of those points in the last two games), but his specialty is mainly peripheral stats in multicategory leagues. Hits and blocks aren't a judge of defensive ability on their own, but a drop in icetime could lead to a decrease in these counting stats. Nurse has been at or near a top-10 player in all of HIT+BKS (344), SOG+HIT+BKS (524) and PIM+HIT+BKS (423). The Oilers might be winning in spite of Nurse, but his defensive woes don't necessarily affect his fantasy value. At least not until his icetime is reduced.

Jacob Trouba, who was in the Roto Rankings previously, might also be a player to watch for this reason. The Rangers captain has a similar profile to Nurse as a multicategory powerhouse, but he had a 44.6 CF% during the playoffs and appeared to really struggle at times.

Brent Burns

2023-24 might be the season where Father Time finally caught up to Burns, who is now 39 years old. Burns' 0.52 PTS/GP average (43 points in 82 games) was tied for his lowest in over a decade, dating all the way back to the 2011-12 season, his first in San Jose. Although Burns was able to maintain his usual power-play production (20 PPP), Burns had fewer even-strength points than players like Cody Ceci, David Savard, Josh Manson, and Erik Gudbranson – players not known for their offense. 

The ironic part of this is that Burns is still running on a games-played ironman streak. Burns' 843 games played is the longest ironman streak among active players, nearly 400 games higher than the next-highest player (Ryan Suter). As long as he's available for every game, Burns should hold some fantasy value. However, he should no longer be drafted as one of the top-producing defensemen with an unreal shot total. In 2023-24, Burns did not reach 200 shots for the first full season since 2010-11.

Kris Letang

Like Burns, Letang is another over-35 defenseman whose production isn't what it used to be. Yet how Letang has arrived there is different. The Erik Karlsson trade hurt Letang as far as power-play time goes, as it bumped him off the first unit that he had been a mainstay on for many years. As a result, Letang recorded just five power-play points, his lowest total since all the way back to 2009-10. The good news is that Letang was still a top-10 producer in even-strength points (45 EVP). 

Letang's peripherals also keep his fantasy value afloat. While not at the level of Nurse in that department, Letang still averages over 100 hits and 100 blocked shots per season. Now if he can ever swipe some of that power-play time back from Karlsson, who has frequently been injured throughout his career. The trouble is that Letang has had a long list of injuries in his past, although he also managed to play a full 82 games for the first time since 2010-11. Yet as long as he's not on the Penguins' top power-play unit, Letang's fantasy value will be limited.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 27 - 19:12 DET vs TOR
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Dec 27 - 19:12 N.J vs CAR
Dec 27 - 20:12 DAL vs MIN
Dec 27 - 20:12 STL vs NSH
Dec 27 - 21:12 UTA vs COL
Dec 27 - 22:12 S.J vs VGK

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