Fantasy hockey championships are won by maximizing value – acquiring a player when their stock is low and reaping rewards once fortunes change. The hard part is identifying such targets, because for every player who bounces back from a low point, there are several that don't. One thing that can help is focusing on players that seem to be performing below standard due to a limiting factor that is likely to be lifted. For example, a good player may have seen sheltered minutes under one coach, but the firing of that coach opens the door for improved deployment (see Jeff Skinner under Don Granato vs. Ralph Krueger). Another example of this, the one I'll be focusing on today, is injury. From my perspective, the players on this list underperformed this past regular season because they weren't at 100%. If they can stay healthy next year after a full offseason of rest and recovery, their fantasy value should be on the rise. 

Mason McTavish

McTavish had an incredible start to the 2023-2024 campaign, opening up with 20 points in his first 19 appearances. He then went pointless in his next four outings before missing seven games with an upper-body injury. It's worth noting that in his final two games before the injury absence, he played 13 minutes and two minutes, respectively. 

He wasn't as effective once he got back in the lineup, tallying just 10 points in his next 19 appearances. That brings us to the All-Star Break and Anaheim's bye week. McTavish missed Anaheim's first game out of the break due to an upper-body injury. Now, there's no official word on whether this injury was related to the one that caused him to miss time earlier in the year, but considering both injuries affected the same region, it's a fair assumption. It might also explain why he wasn't as productive leading into the break – perhaps he was playing through something? Thanks to that bye week, McTavish got 12 days of rest while only missing one game. He seemed more like himself once he returned, posting nine points in his next nine outings.

Unfortunately, the injury bug bit again as McTavish then suffered a lower-body injury and was seen leaving the arena in crutches and a protective boot. Miraculously, he missed just two games after that. However, his return may have been premature as he didn't register a point in four games and then proceeded to miss another two contests – again with a lower-body injury. He came back and posted a measly two points in eight contests before spraining his MCL and missing the final six games of the campaign. I know it's incredibly dangerous to speculate and make assumptions without all the information, but missing two stints in close succession with a 'lower-body' injury and then suffering a knee injury doesn't seem coincidental – to me at least.

Conspiracy theories aside, the main point here is that McTavish can have a great offensive impact when healthy, as he showed in the first quarter of this past season. He finished the year with a 54-point pace, but I think his output would've been higher if he wasn't hindered by injuries. If he can stay healthy in the upcoming season, I think the 21-year-old forward can flirt with a 65-point pace.  

Kyle Connor

The 27-year-old winger had an incredible start to the campaign, racking up 17 goals and 11 assists in his first 26 appearances. Unfortunately, a knee injury derailed his momentum and caused him to miss about a month of action. Once he got back in the lineup, it took him some time to reacclimate as he posted just two points in his first nine games back. He was back to his productive self after that, posting 31 points in his final 30 appearances of the campaign. He finished the year with a 77-point pace but It's fair to wonder whether he would have flirted with 85 had he been healthy all year.

Timo Meier

Meier had a solid start to the season. He posted 11 points in his first 14 games while seeing 17 and a half minutes of action a night. Unfortunately, he missed New Jersey's next seven games due to a lower-body injury – later revealed to be an injury that affected both of his MCLs. Upon return, he tallied just four points in 14 games, down to 16 minutes a night. 

Meier was then sidelined with an oblique injury for a couple of weeks. The return from that wasn't smooth either as he posted just seven points in his first 15 games back. Fortunately, that proved to be a valuable adjustment period as he stayed healthy and closed out the campaign with 30 points in his final 26 outings, averaging 19 minutes per game during that stretch. It's fair to say injuries dampened Meier's output this season, so expect him to rebound next year if he can stay healthy and maintain the offensive deployment he saw down the stretch. Although he underwent shoulder surgery at the end of this season, he's expected to make a full recovery before next year's training camp.

Joseph Woll

Looking at Woll's overall numbers from this past regular season won't give you the most accurate account of his performance. He had a strong start to the campaign, posting a 2.80 GAA and .916 SV% in his first 15 games. Then, in early December, he suffered a high ankle sprain that kept him sidelined until the very end of February. His performance post-injury wasn't as impressive as he closed out the season with a 3.14 GAA and .890 SV% over 10 appearances. He was spectacular during this year's playoffs, surrendering just two goals over seven periods of play. Unfortunately, his postseason was cut short as he sprained his back late in Game 6 against the Bruins, rendering him unavailable for Toronto's Game 7 elimination. Health is an obvious concern for the 25-year-old netminder next year, but he has potential to be a valuable fantasy asset thanks to the high-quality team in front of him.

Adin Hill

The 28-year-old netminder kicked off the 2023-2024 campaign on an incredibly high note as he boasted a 1.87 GAA and .935 SV% through 14 games between October and November. Unfortunately, a lower-body injury suffered on November 30^th ended up being the turning point of his season. The injury kept him out for roughly two weeks at first but his preliminary return lasted just six minutes as he reaggravated the ailment and ended up sidelined for just over a month. Hill failed to maintain his previous standard of play once he got back in the lineup, closing out the season with a 3.33 GAA and .891 SV% in his final 21 appearances. He also missed another two weeks of action during that stretch because of a lower-body injury. For what it's worth, Hill said he's working with a world-class doctor to discover preventative measures that would help him stay healthy next season. A healthy Hill is one worth dying on, so keep him on your watchlist during upcoming drafts. 

Sean Couturier

Most players on this list so far have followed the same general pattern: play well to start the year, sit out for a long time because of an injury, and then play at a markedly worse level upon return. Couturier is a bit of a different case because he didn't have the same prolonged absence that others had. Instead, he had several short ones throughout the campaign. Although his play didn't drop off after the first hiatus, it certainly did later on. 

On a podcast last week, Couturier revealed that he underwent a sports hernia surgery shortly after this past regular season came to an end. It addressed one of the many injuries he played through last season. We don't really have a concrete history of what injuries he sustained and when he sustained them, but combining his attenuated offense, sporadic absences, and team acknowledgement that he was playing injured, I think it's fair to conclude that Couturier's productions was adversely impacted by injury this year. 

After playing just 29 games during the 2021-2022 season and then missing the entirety of 2022-2023, it took a lot for Couturier to be in this year's opening night lineup. He kicked off the campaign in style, racking up eight points in his first 10 appearances after almost two years on the shelf. He then encountered his first absence, missing two games with a lower-body injury. As I alluded to earlier, the two-way forward remained effective upon return, posting 21 points in his next 30 games while averaging over 20 minutes a night. Unfortunately, things didn't go as smoothly the next time he got injured. After missing two games in mid-January, Couturier returned to post just nine points in his final 34 outings of the year – a stretch that included a couple more two-game injury absences. His ice time was down to just 15 minutes a night during that period. 

Given his extensive list of injuries and lack of reps in recent years, I can understand why you'd want to avoid Couturier in fantasy formats next season. However, such concerns also serve to discount a player that consistently paced for 70 points between 2017 and 2021. Sure, injuries may prevent him from rediscovering that form, but given where his stock is right now, it won't cost a lot to acquire him. He'll probably start the year as a free agent in your league. Perhaps you can monitor his play early on to determine whether you want to add him to your roster.