The Wild West – Unrestricted Free Agent Defenders – Salary Valuation

Grant Campbell

2024-06-17

Last week, we looked at the impending UFA forwards and their possible valuations and this week we will look at the most intriguing defensemen. Here is the full list of 2023-2024 Defense valuations.

Remember that this value is based on what each player did in the 2023-24 regular season, not on future performance or what a team will pay them in free agency.

The formula is a little different for forwards as the average salary and rating are lower for defenders.

The valuations below should be used as a baseline for any future contracts. As the players listed are all UFA and a little older, it is highly doubtful that many will be on the rise.

Brady Skjei (30) $6.0 to 6.4 million

Skjei is entering free agency after a six-year deal at $5.25 million AAV. He had his most productive season yet in 2023-24 with 13 goals and 34 assists in 81 games and was very effective in the playoffs with nine points in 11 games. He is perhaps the second-best defender available as a free agent which could create a bidding war for his services. Don't be surprised at a six-year deal at over $7.5 million AAV.

Matt Roy (29) $5.5 to 6.0 million

Roy was a bargain for three years at $3.15 million AAV on his expiring contract. Roy has been a member of the 100 Hits and 100 Blocked Shot club four times in his career. He is a much-coveted right-shot defender who logs over 20 minutes per game, kills penalties and can move the puck well enough. The risk is term for a player like Roy as it is likely that a team gives him five or six years at over $5.5 million AAV as it might be hard to get value in years four and five.

Brandon Montour (30 years old) $5.1 to 5.8 million

Montour had 73 points in 80 games in 2022-23 but dipped to just 33 points in 66 games in 2023-24. He's had another very good postseason and has played 40 playoff games over the past two seasons with 11 goals and 12 assists. His value is lower than what he will get because of his dip in production, but he could get an offer of five or six years north of $7.5 million AAV.

Shayne Gostisbehere (31) $4.7 to 5.1 million

Gostisbehere signed a one-year deal with Detroit for $4.125 million in 2023-24 and is now looking for term, one would think. He is kind of a one-dimensional defender in that he can run a power play but does struggle without the puck. He had 56 points in 81 games with Detroit, which was his best production since he had 65 points with Philadelphia in 2017-18. I wouldn't be comfortable giving him anything more than two or three years at $4.5 to $5 million.

Sean Walker (29) $4.6 to 4.9 million

Walker had his most productive regular season with 10 goals and 19 assists in 81 games split between Philadelphia and Colorado but struggled in the playoffs with the Avalanche, going pointless in 11 games. His expiring contract was at $2.65 million AAV over four years. He is a right-shot defender who skates very well and had 100 hits and 100 blocked shots for the first time in 2023-24. I can see him getting a four or five-year contract for $4 million AAV. It would be hard to justify anything more than that as his body of work just doesn't support it.

Dylan DeMelo (31) $4.3 to 4.8 million

DeMelo is another coveted right-shot defender who has hit 100 hits and 100 blocked shots four times now in his career and three of the past three years. His expiring contract was for four years at $3 million AAV. I would be comfortable giving him a deal for three or four years at the lower end of the range above.

Tyler Myers (34) $4.0 to 4.1 million

Myers is coming off a five-year contract at $6 million AAV, in which he wasn't very close to that value in any of those seasons. Rumor has it that he could leave some money on the table and re-sign with Vancouver at $3 million AAV for three or four years, otherwise, he is looking at around $4 million AAV.

Alec Martinez (36) $3.6 to 4.7 million

Martinez struggled in the playoffs and only has a few years left in his career at the age of 36. He has played more than 60 games just once since 2017-18 and should be at a value at the lower end closer to $3.6 million AAV. I can't see a team giving him more than two years.

Chris Tanev (34) $3.5 million

Tanev has made between $4.45 million and $4.5 million for the past nine seasons. He is one of the most difficult players to assign a value to because his stats don't tell us everything about his overall game.

I think a team will offer him three or four years between $4.5 and 5 million AAV, but it certainly comes with some injury risk.

Brenden Dillon (33) $3.4 to 3.5 million

Dillon is coming off a $3.9 million AAV four-year contract with Winnipeg. He set a career-high with eight goals and 241 hits in 2023-24 and has blocked more than 100 shots six times in his career. He can slide into being a team's fourth or fifth defender for the next two or three seasons, so I'd expect him to sign a three-year deal for about the value above.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson (32) $3.3 to 3.5 million

After being bought out by the Vancouver Canucks when the 2022-23 season ended, Ekman-Larsson signed a one-year deal with Florida for $2.25 million and could win the Stanley Cup in 2023-24 after playing just 25 career NHL playoff games in the 13 years prior. He certainly wasn't worth the $8.25 million AAV that he was bought out from, but I'd expect him to sign a two or three-year deal for between $3 and 4 million AAV.

Mike Reilly (30) $3.0 to 3.8 million

Reilly is 18 months removed from playing 32 games in the AHL in 2022-23 while signed with the Boston Bruins. He had a solid 2023-24 with Florida and the NY Islanders and is probably set for a raise from his one-year deal at $1 million. I don't think he will get the value above, but he could see north of $2 million AAV for one or two years.

T.J. Brodie (34) $2.8 to 2.9 million

Brodie was slightly overpaid at $5 million AAV for four years while with Toronto. I think his next contract will be in the two to three-year range and be a little above $3 million AAV.

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Jani Hakanpaa (32) $2.7 to 3.2 million

Hakanpaa is a huge (6-7 222lb) defender who hits (196) blocks shots (123) and kills penalties. He was injured for all 19 games of the playoffs for Dallas and was missed. His last contract was for three years at $1.5 million AAV. He should get a similar term for over $2.5 million AAV.

Alexandre Carrier (27) $2.7 to 2.8 million

At just 27 years of age, some teams might look at Carrier as a defender who could still see some improvements in his game. He was one of the better Nashville players in their six-game series against Vancouver in the playoffs. He's a good skater, who has a bit of offense and isn't afraid to block shots (137). He could sign a four or five-year contract for over $3 million AAV to the right team.

Erik Gustafsson (32) $2.4 to 2.5 million

Gustafsson hasn't had more than a one-year deal since 2019-20 and it seems like he has to give up his salary to get a one-way deal. He's had two solid seasons in a row and has a little more bargaining power. I think he should get a two or three-year deal for around $2.5 million AAV.

Brett Pesce (29) $2.2 to 2.4 million

Pesce had a down year in the final year of his six-year contract that had a cap hit of $4.025 million AAV. He might have to take a one-year show-me contract for around $2.5 to 3.0 million to get into position for another three or four-year deal.

Nikita Zadorov (29) $2.2 to 2.3 million

Some of the numbers I've seen bandied about for Zadorov are a tad high. He had an excellent playoff showing and it could be argued he was the best defender for the Canucks in 13 games. We can't forget that he has played 642 career games and is 29 years old and it is unlikely that he has turned a corner to be that player on a nightly basis. His expiring contract was for two years at $3.75 million AAV and that should be the cap for most teams.

Dmitry Kulikov (33) $2.1 to 2.2 million

Kulikov might very well win the Stanley Cup this summer, but teams should be wary of paying more than they need to for him. He has been steady as a sixth defenseman on an excellent Florida team but has averaged just 16:31 per game in the regular season, which dipped to 13:56 in 19 playoff games. I would limit my offer to one or two years at $2.2 million AAV.

Jalen Chatfield (28) $2.0 to 2.1 million

Chatfield has never had an NHL contract above the league minimum but deserves to be above that for 2024-25. Any team that signs him just needs to set their limitations on what to expect as he is a consummate sixth defender. I have his value at around $2 million AAV but I'd expect him to get around $1.5 million AAV for two or three years. It would be well deserved.

Ilya Lyubushkin (30) $2.0 to 2.1 million

Lyubushkin will hit (176), block shots (168), and kill penalties, but his other contributions are limited. He's a tempting addition for a few teams and could fetch north of $2 million AAV for two or three years to a team that covets those components.

Matt Dumba (29) $1.9 to 2.0 million

Dumba has had two years of minimal production (0.16 to 0.18 pts/g) and is coming off a one-year deal at $3.9 million after a long-term contract of five years at $6 million AAV before that. He'd be a great addition at around $2 million AAV for two or three years.

Ian Cole (35) $1.9 to 2.0 million

Cole has had three one-year contracts in a row ranging in value from $2.9 to $3.0 million AAV. At 35 years of age, he is perhaps in line for another one-year deal, but I can't see it being more than $2.5 million AAV. He was exposed a little in the playoffs for Vancouver.

Tyson Barrie (32) $1.4 to 2.5 million

After just 15 points in 41 games, Barrie will likely need to take a short-term contract and prove that he can get back to putting up some points. I think that if a team can get him for under $2.5 million AAV for one or two years, he might be a good gamble or insurance for an existing PP quarterback.

Oliver Kylington (27) $900k to 2.1 million

Teams might focus on the season Kylington had in 2021-22 and see the nine goals and 31 points in 73 games and think that he can get back to that level after playing just 33 NHL games over the past two years. Calgary might get the first kick at the can, but if Kylington wants near the top end of the value above or more, they might let him test out free agency.

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Thanks for reading and if you have any questions or players you'd like me to look at please message or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15.

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