Fantasy Hockey Poll: Scoring Increase Streaks
Rick Roos
2024-06-19
It's time for another of my annual offseason polls. This one focuses on players who have seen their scoring pace rise for three or more consecutive seasons, or who've played a total of only three seasons but scored at a higher pace in each one thus far. To stress how difficult this is, of the 20 who had streaks going into 2023-24, only six managed to keep them intact, plus only 15 others met one of the criteria for inclusion; so if you see some names that are not on everyone's fantasy radar, it's because there were no other options, aside from Valeri Nichushkin, who I felt probably was not best to include given his uncertain future. Who will keep their streaks intact after 2024-25? That's for your votes to decide.
Specifically, vote for any and all players you believe will score at a higher pace in 2024-25 than they did in 2023-24. And just to be clear, the measuring stick is scoring pace, not actual points. Listed below are the 20 choices, in alphabetical order with their scoring rate for 2023-24 plus the number of consecutive seasons, through 2023-24, of scoring rate increases, or an indication that they're one of those who have only played three seasons but have had an increase in scoring rate every season so far. A link to cast your votes will be at the end of the column.
Quinton Byfield (56-point pace, three seasons)
This season saw Byfield make a major leap. He did slow quite a bit in Q4 though, but that just might have been a function of him playing more than 53 NHL games for the first time ever. It stands to reason that he should improve, although who's to say on such a balanced LA team and in view of him being a larger frame player who'd be more likely to make a leap at or near the 400 games mark, rather than circa 200 games.
Charlie Coyle (60-point pace, three seasons)
Things have gone well for Coyle since he came to Boston, with steady improvement. Even though the Bs made the playoffs and won a round, their lack of scoring depth was evident when matched against the Panthers. If the Bs go and get a more traditional first line center, we might well be at the end of Coyle's upward trajectory.
Sean Durzi (44-point pace, only been in the league three seasons)
Although Durzi was put in position to produce, and saw gains in scoring rate, he didn't exactly pile on the points. Also, with the team's move to Utah and being under an ownership that is apparently intent on improving the squad, Durzi's "spot" could be at risk, and, with that, his scoring streak.
Joel Eriksson Ek (68-point pace, six seasons)
I'm guessing most of you would not have surmised it is Eriksson Ek who holds the title of the longest current scoring rate increase streak among all NHLers. But in view of Eriksson Ek finally getting a chance to center Kirill Kaprizov in the second half, and Kaprizov exploding, chances are they stay paired together again, with a higher than 68-point pace for Eriksson Ek seemingly well within realistic reach.
Morgan Frost (47-point pace, three seasons)
He barely did better than 2022-23, but that is still a decent accomplishment considering Frost saw lower ice time overall and was in and out of Torts' doghouse. But Frost's best came in the second half, to the tune of 25 points in his last 38 games, so all he'd have to do to keep his streak intact is score at that rate for all of 2023-24.
Brandon Hagel (75-point pace, four seasons)
Those expecting Hagel's ascent to end have thus far been kept waiting. Yes, PP time has still evaded him; but he's finding a way to score. To some degree that is due to his spot on a line with Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point; however, that is not a guarantee of success, since many a winger has failed to succeed to anything close to this extent despite playing with the likes of Connor McDavid or Sidney Crosby. But unless more PP time does come, Hagel finding a way to see his scoring rate rise even further could be a much taller order.
Thomas Harley (49-point pace, three seasons)
After a total of six points in 40 career games, Harley sported a very healthy 49-point pace, and that was despite only five points in his first 17 contests. Yes, his double-digit SH% is concerning, but he's now seemingly joined at the hip with Miro Heiskanen, so chances are they can form a one-two scoring punch that benefits them both.
Quinn Hughes (92-point pace, three seasons)
This was the campaign where Hughes went from star to truly elite. He was able to go full throttle thanks to having a full season with the defensively-minded Filip Hronek beside him. Yet Hughes' SOG rate still lags behind that which would be expected from someone who scores at this rate, and could impede him from doing even better.
Dakota Joshua (42-point pace, three seasons)
Drafted ten years ago, Joshua still has yet to hit the 200-game mark. But thanks to occasionally being utilized on the top line, Joshua breezed to a career best. If he can stay in a featured role, plus score even better while continuing to hit a ton, he could be a multi-cat gem.
Adrian Kempe (80-point pace; five seasons)
Although he easily surpassed his previous career best scoring rate, it's not entirely clear why, as he didn't see much more ice time at ES or on the PP and shot lower than his usual rate. Success on the PP definitely helped, but he might have room to still do better; the only question is if he can, given the balanced offensive approach favored by the Kings.
Philipp Kurashev (59-point pace, three seasons)
Things look bright for Kurashev, having ended 2023-24 with 20 points in 20 games and finding chemistry with phenom in the making Connor Bedard. Sooner or later Chicago will bring in proven talent; however, Kurashev might've already shown enough to ensure he sticks alongside Bedard for the long haul, in which case he should sleepwalk to a higher scoring rate for 2024-25.
Alexis Lafreniere (57-point pace, three seasons)
After seeing his scoring pace inch upwards in his first three seasons, and still never cracking the point per every other game mark, Laffy hit his stride in 2023-24. Whether it is due to playing alongside Artemi Panarin matters only to the extent Panarin could be gone after 2024-25; but by then Laffy may well have come into his own enough to shine without a lift from others.
Dylan Larkin (83-point pace, three seasons)
Another case of a player who has made tiny strides, but improvement is improvement. And one has to think at some point everything will fall into place and Larkin will explode. The magic questions of course are when, and if in the interim will his scoring rate not continue to progress?
Mike Matheson (62-point pace, four seasons)
Now having firmly proven he's for real, Matheson has to show he can hold onto his top dog spot with the upstart Lane Hutson figuring to be a full timer in 2024-25. Still, if Matheson can keep doing what he's done and the Habs improve as a team, a rising tide should lift his boat further.
Mason McTavish (54-point pace, only been in the league three seasons)
Yes, he slowed after a very impressive start, but he's also likely ahead of whatever curve the Ducks envisoned for him. With ample room for him to get better, as well as his team to do the same, he could very well keep this streak intact.
William Nylander (98-point pace, three seasons)
Much like Hughes, Nylander took things to a new level this season and escaped the long shadows cast by Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. But in his case all the metrics have been in tune, as his SOG rate has risen just as his scoring rate has. And even if the Leafs retool, Nylander figures to be a focal point, perhaps even more so.
Darren Raddysh (33 -point pace, only been in the league three seasons)
Not a well-known fantasy commodity as yet, Raddysh quietly ended 2023-24 with 12 points in 19 games, which is above a 50 point pace. And he was even getting a smattering of PP time. Yes, there's no question he's a distant third in the pecking order among Tampa d-men, but he is Victor Hedman's partner at ES, so points are bound to come.
Marco Rossi (40-point pace, only been in the league three seasons)
After a measly one point in 21 games spaced between two seasons, Rossi hit the 20-goal mark and nearly a point per every other game. The issue is 24 points came in the first half when he was centering Kirill Kaprizov, who was faring poorly. Chances are the two don't take the ice together much if at all in 2024-25, making it difficult to envision Rossi improving.
Dylan Strome (67-point pace, three seasons)
Although the Caps made the playoffs, they're clearly a team on the decline. But Strome didn't get that memo, as he keeps doing better and better, clearly staking a claim to the #1 center job for the Caps. And that should still pay dividends for at least a little while longer.
Nick Suzuki (77-point pace; four seasons)
Despite a supporting cast that has not done him a lot of favors, Suzuki chugs along, doing better each season. With the outlook for the Habs in 2024-25 better than it's arguably been in some time, Suzuki stands to be a major beneficiary.
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You've seen the names, now it's time to decide which ones have the talent, deployment, and/or other factors in their favor enough to score at an even higher pace in 2023-24 than 2022-23. Remember that you should vote for any and all players you think will score at a higher pace in the 2024-25 season. But do keep in mind that only six of 20 carried through their streaks from 2022-23 to 2023-24.
Note that the forum poll lists McTavish twice by mistake, and if you want to vote for Larkin then you should vote for the second McTavish listing.
Click here to cast your votes.
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Questions for Mailbag Column
Next week's mailbag is already pretty full, but might have room for another question or two. To get your question to me, either private message "rizzeedizzee" via the DobberHockey Forums or email [email protected] with "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line.