Fantasy Take: Ullmark to Ottawa; Korpisalo to Boston

Brennan Des

2024-06-24

Stanley Cup Final. Game 7. Fans watching with bated breath as puck drop approaches. All eyes are on Edmonton and Florida, on Linus Ullmark and Joonas Korpisalo – I mean Stuart Skinner and Sergei Bobrovsky. Minutes before the biggest game in recent memory, Boston and Ottawa decided to steal the spotlight with one of the biggest goalie swaps in recent history.

On Monday evening, the Ottawa Senators acquired 30-year-old netminder Linus Ullmark in exchange for Joonas Korpisalo, Mark Kastelic and the 25th overall pick of the 2024 draft – now just a few days away.

As I write this, Ullmark has just one year left in his contract at an average annual value (AAV) of $5 million, but reports indicate Ottawa is currently working with him on an extension. The Sens are retaining 25% of Korpisalo's contract in this deal, which works out to $1 million for each of the next four years. In other words, the Bruins are only paying him $3 million for the next four seasons.

This is a great piece of work from new Sens' General Manager Steve Staios. Ottawa's previous management group made a massive investment in Korpisalo last summer, paying him $20 million over five years. In the first year of that deal, he posted a shocking 3.27 GAA and .890 SV% over 55 starts. He was the worst goalie this season based on Evolving Hockey's Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) model, which assesses a goaltender's performance while accounting for the quality of shots they've been facing. I'll touch on this more later, but it wasn't Ottawa's defense letting Korpisalo down, he was just awful this year. For the small price of a late first round pick, Staios was able to shed the bulk of Korpisalo's contract, while also acquiring a high-quality netminder. Great business.

Let's move on to the fantasy implications of this trade.

Simply put, the Senators were sunk by bad goaltending last year. They actually played decent defense, sporting an expected goals per 60 of 2.72 at even strength. That ranked 14th in the league, slightly behind 12th place Boston, who posted a 2.68. Despite the modest expected goals against, Ottawa was a bottom-five team in goals against per game, giving up 3.43 a night. Considering they weren't giving up too many high-quality chances, but they were conceding a lot of goals, it's fair to place the blame on goaltending – particularly Korpisalo.

With Ullmark, the Senators finally seem to have an answer in net. The 30-year-old goaltender has posted a save percentage of .915 or better in each of the past five seasons. That's a high level of consistency that you rarely find among today's netminders. Although he split starts in Boston, he should see slightly more action as the undisputed starter in Ottawa, while Anton Forsberg settles into a backup role. The Sens were already oozing talent up front and on the blueline. This move could be the missing piece that helps them break a seven-year playoff drought.  

In Boston, Korpisalo should fall into a firm backup role behind 25-year-old Jeremy Swayman. Swayman has shared the net evenly with Ullmark for the past three seasons, so it'll be interesting to see how he handles a greater workload now that he's the bona fide starter. I'd expect something like a 56/26 game split between Swayman and Koorpisalo if both stay healthy and stick with the Bruins all year. It's just hard to trust Korpisalo with much more given the quality of play he put forward last season. Swayman is currently a restricted free agent and needs a new deal for next season, but he’s been solid for a few years now, and after this trade, it's clear the Bruins are fully invested in him.

As a final note, don't be surprised if Boston tries to flip the first-round draft pick they acquired in this deal. The Bruins proved they're still contending as they made it to the second round of the playoffs this year. It might make sense for them to bolster the forward corps in order to compete with an insanely tough Atlantic Division next season.

Who this should help:

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Ottawa Senators' Plus/Minus and Playoff Hopes

Jeremy Swayman (more starts)

Linus Ullmark (more starts)

Who this might hurt:

Me, because I've missed the first period of one of the most highly anticipated Cup Final Finales.

Joonas Korpisalo (fewer starts)

The Swayman/Ullmark bromance

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