Ramblings: Panthers Win Game 7 and First Franchise Stanley Cup; Ullmark Traded; Playoff Observations of Lafrenière, Holloway, Lohrei, and More – June 25

Michael Clifford

2024-06-25

Sam Reinhart's 10th goal of the postseason proved to be the difference as the Florida Panthers captured the first Stanley Cup in franchise history thanks to a 2-1 win in Game 7. Reinhart ripped a shot under goaltender Stuart Skinner's glove, and the game-winner was a fitting end to a season where the winger finished second in the league in goals.

Carter Verhaeghe scored his 11th goal of the playoffs to get the ball rolling less than five minutes into the contest, but Mattias Janmark replied a couple of minutes later to tie things up. That set the stage for Sergei Bobrovsky to shut the door the rest of the way, stopping 23 of 24 shots faced.

This was a tremendous game from start to finish. Florida carried the play but Edmonton had their fair share of chances as well. Aleksander Barkov did a very good job keeping the Connor McDavid line in check, and it helped lift his team to a championship. It was a fitting end to a great series.

McDavid was voted as the Conn Smythe winner for the playoff MVP.

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Just before Game 7, we got a preview of the coming few days as Boston traded goalie Linus Ullmark to Ottawa for goalie Joonas Korpisalo, a late first round pick, and Mark Kastelic. Brennan had the breakdown of the trade here.

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Joseph Woll got a three-year extension from Toronto:

This hasn't been officially confirmed by the team yet, but if Kevin Weekes is tweeting it, it should hold up. It might be a lot considering he has 34 career starts, but if he plays the way he has for those 34 starts, this contract will be just fine. At the least, he's in a time share, and will likely have the chance for a 50- to 55-start season if he stays healthy.

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The NHL Playoffs have ended, and I have two more Ramblings this week which will cover the Entry Draft and free agency expectations. For today, I want to take one more spin through the 2024 postseason.

Every year, there are players that are flying under the radar that stand out in the playoffs. In 2022 it was Bowen Byram and in 2023 it was Thomas Harley. There is always more than one player, so I want to go through some non-elite players that stood out in the postseason. As always, data from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, or Frozen Tools with tracking data from AllThreeZones.

Alexis Lafreniere

In the sample of forwards that were tracked by AllThreeZones, the average rate of scoring chance assists – helpers on teammate chances – was 2.58 per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play. Lafrenière was just a shade below that at 2.49, but he also finished second on the team in terms of overall rate of scoring chance contributions – individual chances plus those assists:

All three players at the top of the heap came from the same line, so there's a lot of interplay that is helping all three. It is notable that he slightly exceeded Artemi Panarin, though. What is also notable is that going into last night's Game 7, the top four leaders by primary points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (goals and first assist) were from Edmonton or Florida. In fifth place was Lafrenière. Not only did he contribute to a lot of chances, but he finished a lot of the chances he got himself. Despite not skating on the top PP unit, he finished with one fewer point than Panarin, two fewer than Mika Zibanejad, and out-pointed Chris Kreider.

If people weren't paying attention in the regular season, this postseason showed everyone what Lafrenière is now as a player: one who can use his size and speed to gain the zone, one who knows how to find soft areas of the defence, and one who can finish the plays set for him. As always, he won't ascend to the next level in the fantasy game until he starts getting top power play minutes, so fantasy owners shouldn't get over-excited just yet. He is showing all the promise that he flashed five years ago as a prospect, though, and that's a crucial development for his future production.

Dylan Holloway

Going into Game 7, the only Oilers skater with more goals at 5-on-5 than Holloway was Zach Hyman. Our subject had five, which was as many as Connor McDavid and more than Leon Draisaitl (4). He has just nine goals in 89 career regular season games but has been a useful contributor for the Oilers in the postseason, providing the type of scoring depth this team needs when the top guys aren't filling the net.

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The big note for Holloway is that he's maintained his physical presence. He has 174 hits in 89 career regular season games and had 82 in this postseason run before Game 7. Despite not getting much ice time, he is putting up monster hit totals, and it doesn't matter if it's the regular campaign or the postseason.

As with Lafrenière, the big road block is power play time. The Oilers have a slew of free agents and though there's cap space this summer, Holloway has a reasonable shot at starting the 2024-25 season on the second line with Draisaitl. However, until he earns top PP minutes, he won't be a big point producer. With his hit totals, though, even if he can just be a 20-goal, 35-point player, he'll be a valuable multi-cat option. With better line mates and a modest ice time increase, that is doable for him.

Casey Mittelstadt

There was lots of chatter about how dominant Nathan MacKinnon looked for most of Colorado's playoff run, and that was well-deserved. However, even when Mittelstadt was on the ice without MacKinnon at 5-on-5 (which was nearly all the time), Colorado outscored the opposition 8-7 while carrying the play. In fact, among the forwards with at least 60 tracked minutes, he finished top-10 by chance contribution rate at 5-on-5:

I wrote a postseason review of Mittelstadt a couple of weeks ago so there's not much need to go deeper here (go read that). Suffice to say that not only did he not look out of place as the second line centre for a team that had genuine Cup potential, but he thrived. He is a very interesting RFA case for this summer.

Wyatt Johnston

Writing about Johnston feels like cheating because this guy was also excellent in the regular season but there's a difference between 'This guy is playing extremely well on a second/third line in the regular season' and 'this guy is dominant no matter which line he's on in the postseason'. Going into Game 7, he was still tied for second in playoff goal scoring, and he finished the postseason tied with Jason Robertson for the team lead in points (16).

That graphic added in the section above on Mittelstadt? Look again who is at the top of the list. To be certain, he had a lot more individual chances than assists on chances from his line mates, but getting to the top of this list, and having gone to the Conference Final so the sample isn't tiny, is superb work.

By primary points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, Johnston's rate of 1.76 exceeded MacKinnon, Aleksander Barkov (Game 7 pending), Mikko Rantanen, Panarin, and a host of other stars (and Stars). This was the showcase of a pillar not only of the franchise, but of the league, for years to come. That he led all Dallas forwards in ice time per game by 53 seconds (Robertson was second) shows what the team thinks of him. Get ready for an explosion in 2024-25.

Mason Lohrei

Like Mittelstadt, Lohrei is another player that I wrote about a couple of weeks ago regarding his performance in the postseason. For that reason, we won't go long here. What I will say is that when I watch hockey intent with focusing on players rather than just for enjoyment, I usually watch defencemen. That is why Byram and Harley were named at the top of this article for players that stood out to me in prior postseasons.

Keeping with the defenceman theme, Lohrei is the guy that stuck out to me this postseason. Sure, guys like Evan Bouchard and Gustav Forsling also fit, but they have gotten their fair share of press already.

Between the AHL and NHL regular seasons, Lohrei had 29 points in 62 games, showing off his offensive flair. In the 2024 postseason, Cale Makar led all defencemen by chance contributions at 5-on-5, and by a wide margin. However, Lohrei was in the next group below him and in the range of luminaries like Bouchard and Josh Morrissey:

It is a small sample, sure, but he was well above the league average for defencemen in the regular season, so the evidence is mounting. Expecting more than 30 points in 2024-25 is too much unless he gets top PP minutes but there is a reasonable chance of that happening. He will be a late-round target of mine for drafts next season.

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