Late Wednesday night, Vancouver traded forward Ilya Mikheyev to the Chicago Blackhawks. I broke down Mikheyev's game and the details of that trade here.

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Today is the big day for a lot of people under the Dobber umbrellas as we have Day 1 of the 2024 Entry Draft. For a much more detailed look into the Draft, players to keep an eye on for fantasy, and a team-by-team breakdown of the current state of each team's prospect pool, be sure to get your copy of the 2024 Dobber Hockey Prospects Report! It is a great way to support the Dobber Prospects crew for all their work year-round.

For today, I am going to offer my thoughts on some of the picks we're going to see this weekend. As I always mention when I do this, I am not a prospect analyst. I peruse things like that Dobber Draft Guide as well as sources I trust like Scott Wheeler and Corey Pronman at The Athletic, Bob McKenzie at TSN, the prospect model from Hockey Prospecting, and so on. I have watched the top picks whether it be from the World Juniors, U18 World Championships, the Frozen Four, the Memorial Cup, or wherever else, but I won't sit here and pretend I'm grinding Medicine Hat Tigers game tape during the NHL season. There are more than enough NHL games to watch and that is pertinent to my day-to-day work. So, take these observations with a grain of salt and all that.

With that preamble out of the way, here are the guys I'm keeping an eye on this weekend.

Ivan Demidov

There has been a lot of chatter lately that Demidov might slide in the draft for one reason or another. This is where we'll note that the Dobber Prospects Report has him as the consensus number-3 prospect in hockey behind Macklin Celebrini and Matvei Michkov, Bob McKenzie has him second in his rankings for this season only, and the HP model has him neck-and-neck with Celebrini for likelihood of turning into a star:

Despite that, it seems other places – specifically at The Athletic – are lower on him. However, as former Dobber writer Cam Robinson notes, drafting out of the US college system has had its landmines as well:

Interesting to note, that in the last 20 years, we've seen SEVERAL American kids either force a trade or play 4 years of college to get to free agency

The worst a Russian has done is wait a bit longer to come over (and then sign long-term) – Kaprizov/ Kuznetsov

But on draft…

— Cam Robinson (@Hockey_Robinson) June 22, 2024

Here's a thought: Demidov has 124 points in his last 74 games in the Russian Junior League (1.68 points per game), or his Draft minus-1 and draft year. For comparison, Kirill Kaprizov had 36 points in 55 games (0.66 points/game) in that same timeframe and, more recently, Kirill Marchenko had 42 points in 60 games (0.7 points/game). Leagues and players change, but that is absolutely preposterous production from Demidov.

Remember when we all thought it would take three years for Michkov to make his way out of the KHL? Yeah, it took one year. Even if it took two years for Demidov for whatever reason (his current contract is for one more season), teams at the top of the draft like Chicago, Anaheim, and Montreal are not playoff teams. They don't need him for 2024-25.

To me, there is no way that Demidov should slide past the second pick, but that may just happen. Montreal picks fifth, and as the resident Habs fan here among the Dobber editors, I will be in a cold sweat after San Jose announced Celebrini's name. Demidov is a future all-star and teams passing on him will likely live to regret it.

Cole Eiserman

Eiserman is the consensus number-6 pick in the 2024 draft, per the Dobber Prospects Report. However, Corey Pronman has him 16^th on his list, McKenzie has him 14^th, and Wheeler has him in the same spot. What I saw of him in the brief time I caught the World U18 Championships, this kid has all the look of a top-6 goal scorer, if not a top-line goal scorer. There are holes in his game, sure, but scoring goals is the hardest thing to do at the NHL level. Getting a guy that can pop 30 a season in 3-4 years' time is not something to be dismissed out of hand, and if he can develop even moderate playmaking around that and be a 30-30 player, there is no way he should drop out of the top-10 in this draft.

As for the Hockey Prospecting model, it has six players with at least a 70% chance of becoming a star in the NHL, and Eiserman is one of them:

Notice that he also has the lowest NHLer probability of that top-6, essentially meaning that if he stays in the NHL as a regular, it's almost a guarantee he'll be a star player. If I am a team outside the top-10 picks that is looking for a home run and doesn't have a ton of forward depth as it is – Philadelphia, Minnesota, San Jose, Detroit, St. Louis – this is the guy I have circled on my sheet. As Wheeler noted in his mock draft, he is close with Celebrini, and it wouldn't be surprising to see the Sharks walk out of the draft with those two players if the chips fall the right way.

Nikita Artamonov

Over at Dobber Prospects, Peter Harling has Artamanov going 26^th overall while Pronman has him just inside the first round (30^th) and McKenzie has him just outside (35^th). Over at the HP model, though, he is 1 of 10 players with at least a 40% chance of becoming a star:

He carries a high probability of just becoming an NHLer, which is due to his successful draft year in the KHL where he had 23 points in 53 games. For an 18-year-old in his draft year, that is very good production, and Pronman even notes he was a big part of his team's power play. Being able to contribute on the power play in that league, at that age, is a very good sign.

He doesn't have the appearance to be a big goal scorer, relying much more on puck skills and playmaking than putting the puck in the back of the net. Artamonov also isn't big, standing a shade under 6'0", so he's not the big, bruising centre that GMs just love. As someone famously put it, "big centres have to prove they can't play in the NHL while small centres have to prove they can".

Even if he doesn't turn into a top-line centre, having a playmaker down the middle who can elevate wingers is great for a team to have. Maybe he won't be Robert Thomas, but if he can be Casey Mittelstadt, that would be a big win. There are lots of teams at the end of the first round like Montreal, Carolina, Calgary, and Philadelphia that could use a playmaking forward.

Mac Swanson

This is a very interesting player. Whenever there is a source I trust that deviates considerably from everyone else, I take notice. I am not terribly interested in consensus picks; I am much more interested in the players that create a divide. To wit: Swanson is not ranked in Pronman's first four rounds, McKenzie's first three rounds, or Wheeler's first two rounds. He is also listed at 5'7", with the hope he can get to 5'8" or 5'9" eventually. It is notable that all of Cam Atkinson, Mats Zuccarello, Alex DeBrincat, Cole Caufield, and Logan Stankoven are listed at 5'8". There are not a ton of players that size that become long-term NHLers, but the 2024 NHL is not the 2014 NHL, and it may gear smaller/more skilled in 2-3 years when Swanson is ready to make the jump.

Oh, that source that was much higher on Swanson. That would be Hockey Prospecting's model, who has him as one of the 10 players with at least a 40% chance of being a star:

I get the size argument, but undersized players are undersized their entire lives and learn to play with it. Considering the slew of late-round picks that will not even sniff the NHL, I would take my chances of finding the next Logan Stankoven as soon as the third round is over.

Henry Mews

Generally projected for somewhere in the mid- to late-second round, Mews is a fascinating player. He had 61 points in 65 OHL games for Ottawa this season, or 0.94 points per game. Comparatively, Sam Dickinson is projected somewhere between picks 6-15 in this Draft, and he managed 1.03 points per game this season. Dickinson also did that playing for London, a team that scored 69 more goals than Mews's Ottawa roster. As far as point production is concerned, factoring in the prolific scoring of the London Knights, there isn't that much separating Mews for Dickinson.

Of course, point production isn't the only thing a defenceman should be concerned with, but this is a fantasy hockey site, and that's what we care about. Relatedly, the HP model has Mews with about half the likelihood of being an NHL star, but the seventh overall defenceman in the draft:

As is often the case with guys I keep an eye on, Mews isn't big, listed at 6'0". I would also note that Jared Spurgeon and Torey Krug are 5'9" while Adam Fox, Quinn Hughes, and Shayne Gostisbehere are all listed under 6'0". To be an effective NHLer, a defenceman doesn't need to be 6'4" and 230 lbs. and considering the puck-moving prowess that Mews has, taking him in the second round seems like a pretty good idea to me.