Ramblings: Draft Day; Saros; Joshua; Fantasy Spin on Latest Guentzel, Stamkos, Reinhart Reports (Jun 29)

Ian Gooding

2024-06-29

Draft day at the Sphere in Las Vegas was something that the NHL had never seen before. For the last in-person draft, the NHL sure went out with a bang. Other professional leagues should consider this setting if the NHL won't return there.

As expected, the Sharks took Macklin Celebrini of Boston University with the first overall pick. It remains to be seen whether Celebrini will suit up for the Sharks this season, so I won't try to speculate on his fantasy value. In keeper leagues, he should be at the top of the list of any 2024 drafted players.

For an easier-to-read full list of first-round picks with more information, go to NHL.com. The remaining rounds will take place today (Saturday).

If you were looking for trades, there were a few. However, they didn't involve any current players – only trading of picks.

I don't have a detailed breakdown of each pick here. However, Puneet Sharma will provide that over the next few weeks in The Journey. His first draft article will be published later today.  

You can also follow Peter Harling, Victor Nuno, Hadi Kalakeche, and Sebastian High of DobberProspects, who are at the draft this weekend. Apologies if I missed anyone else from their team!

And of course, you can purchase your copy of the Prospects Report for 2024 draft-eligible players, if you haven't already.

The Flyers have placed Cam Atkinson on waivers for the purpose of buying out the remaining year of his contract. Atkinson was held to just 13 goals and 28 points in 70 games, making him an unproductive option in fantasy leagues. He was even healthy scratched at one point. Now 35 years of age, Atkinson will likely need to settle for a near league minimum contract. Assuming he lands somewhere, he might find his way onto fantasy radars again because he was still able to maintain a fairly high shot total in 2023-24 (2.5 SOG/GP).

The Predators and Juuse Saros have agreed to an eight-year, $61.92 million contract, according to multiple sources. The contract is expected be announced on July 1, since that is the earliest date that extensions that start after the coming season can be announced. Over the past three seasons, Saros has played more games (194) than any other goalie, while only Igor Shesterkin has more wins over that span. Saros has earned this contract as a reliable starting goalie that is capable of a heavy workload.

This news raised eyebrows, as it has a direct effect on prospect goalie Yaroslav Askarov. According to Frank Seravalli, Askarov is expected to be back in the AHL next season with the Preds reportedly in the market for a backup goalie. However, Askarov will be an NHL goalie at some point, and it seems more and more likely that the Preds will shop him. If Askarov is not traded this weekend at the draft, expect the Preds to take their time with this.  

Askarov has been a blue-chip goalie prospect ever since being drafted in the first round in 2020. Assuming he is in the AHL again next season, he will need at least five seasons of development before he reaches the NHL. If you're adding a goalie to your fantasy team during his draft year, expect a long wait before he starts contributing to your fantasy team. Knowing that, I would downgrade goalies relative to skaters drafted with similar real-life picks, as those skaters are more likely to contribute to your fantasy roster sooner. Askarov may be the real deal, but five years is a long time.

By the way, no goalies were drafted in the first round of this year's draft.

The Oilers have re-signed Calvin Pickard to a two-year extension with a cap hit of $1 million per season. Pickard started two playoff games and entered another game in relief for the Oilers, posting a solid 2.21 GAA and .915 SV%, keeping Edmonton's playoff hopes afloat in a tight second-round series with the Canucks. Expect him to back up Stuart Skinner next season.

Pickard's signing also makes a Jack Campbell buyout more likely. Campbell has three more years left on a contract with a cap hit of $5 million. His two seasons in Edmonton have been nothing short of a disaster.

The Canucks have been busy these last few days. On Thursday, they were able to extend both Dakota Joshua and Tyler Myers before they could reach free agency.

Myers has been much maligned for his previous contract, which had a cap hit of $6 million. However, a $3 million cap hit for three more seasons should be easier to swallow. He will most likely be a second- or third-pairing defenseman on the right side, and he seems more effective when he is not forced into a top-pairing role.

Joshua is more of a player of interest in fantasy leagues, particularly bangers leagues. Joshua's 18 goals in 63 games surprised many, as he is not a heavy-volume shooter (just 1.3 SOG/GP) and generally did not play on a scoring line. Joshua is a heavy hitter, with his 244 hits (in just 63 games) placing him in the top 10 in that category. He's worth a late-round flier in mid-sized to deep leagues that count hits simply for that category, with any scoring being a nice bonus. He should receive decent minutes on what should be an effective shutdown line with Conor Garland and Teddy Blueger (53.8 CF%).

The first six players for each side of the Four Nations Tournament were announced on Friday. Both obvious and interesting choices were made for Canada, the US, Sweden, and Finland, but I feel like this is a topic that can be discussed another day. Or perhaps wait until the full rosters are announced. Isn't there enough happening at this time of year? Maybe I'll check back on this in August, when news is sparse.

The list of players selected can be found here.

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The Blues and Blue Jackets made a minor deal on Friday. The Jackets traded Alexandre Texier to the Blues for a 2025 fourth-round pick. Texier also signed a two-year contract worth $2.1 million per season. 

Texier seemed like a more promising fantasy option before he missed the 2022-23 season to play in the Swiss league. However, he is only 24 and he registered a career-high 30 points in 78 games in 2023-24. He has the potential to be a streamer in fantasy leagues if he can find his way onto a scoring line in St. Louis.

Late Thursday, the Flames traded Andrew Mangiapane to the Capitals. You can read the Fantasy Take, which Cliffy wrote.  

With the free agency period set to open on Monday, I'll use the rest of this space to examine what the fantasy value of the biggest names will look like. Three names in particular top the list, and there happened to be news on each one of them on Friday.

Don't forget to check back to DobberHockey, as we will have the fantasy takes of the more important signings and trades soon after they are announced.

Jake Guentzel

A return to Carolina would definitely be something that Guentzel keeper owners should be ecstatic about, and it sounds like the Hurricanes could make that happen (8×8, according to Elliotte Friedman). Guentzel scored 25 points in 17 regular-season games with the Canes, then he registered another nine points in 11 playoff games. Until it happens, the possibility Guentzel doesn't sign a long-term deal with Carolina remains, so let's focus on the teams that are rumored to be interested in his services.

Vancouver is reported to be targeting Guentzel, given the history that Guentzel and the management team of Jim Rutherford and Patrik Allvin have with Guentzel in Pittsburgh. That scenario could work on multiple levels, since Guentzel could be the winger that Elias Pettersson desperately needed during the later part of 2023-24. He'd also slot in perfectly on a power play that includes Pettersson, J.T. Miller, Brock Boeser, and Quinn Hughes.

On the 32 Thoughts podcast, Elliotte Friedman said that a contending team might acquire the rights to Guentzel simply to find out what it would take to sign him, then perform the necessary "surgery" to make room for him. Another team in that scenario seems like an ideal situation for him. I think Vegas was mentioned in that sound bite as well.

There were also rumors that Chicago or San Jose could land him because they'd make a huge offer with their acres of cap space. Should that happen, Guentzel might struggle a bit along with these teams initially, but his numbers could improve as the teams get better. I'd like him better on Chicago than San Jose because of Connor Bedard, but that could change.

Steven Stamkos

It's hard to gauge what Stamkos would look like on another team, as he has played only for the Lightning since the 2008-09 season. I don't see the logic of the Lightning reacquiring Ryan McDonagh while letting Stamkos walk, and a $3 million per season offer to a player of Stamkos' accomplishments and ability will do that. Yet according to Stamkos' agent, Stamkos will be a free agent on July 1. Things can change and the agent's comments may be just posturing, but we have to discuss Stamkos as a possible free agent now.

I don't think the now 34-year-old Stamkos would sign with a rebuilding team unless he is given a 4+ year contract, but I think that's one of the only situations where he would lose value. When I say "rebuilding team," I mean teams like Chicago or San Jose – not teams like Ottawa, Buffalo, or Detroit, who may be on the verge of making the playoffs.

The other negative scenarios might involve Stamkos being the odd man out for some reason on a new team when it comes to linemates and power-play minutes. Despite his relatively advanced age, Stamkos is coming off a season in which he scored 40 goals and 81 points in 79 games, so it's hard to imagine him on a team's second-unit power play or third line, at least right away.

Sam Reinhart

Reinhart is believed to be staying with the Stanley Cup champion Panthers. Until recently and for obvious reasons, he likely hadn't thought as much as the other free agents about where he will play next season.

Reinhart is due for a regression wherever he plays, as his previous career high was 33 goals before his 57-goal outburst in 2023-24. In other words, a 24.5% shooting accuracy doesn't seem sustainable, especially when he has ranged between 10-19% throughout the rest of his career. That being said, Reinhart had maxed out at 25 goals for a struggling Sabres team before scoring at least 30 goals in each of his three seasons with the Panthers. The better the team and linemates, the less significant the goal-scoring regression will be.  

Reinhart will likely be overpaid relative to his future production (as will many other UFA signings), but his 50-goal season places him in the top 3 among available free agents. See our 2024 Free Agency Salary Projections, compiled by Alex MacLean.

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