Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

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1. Draft day at the Sphere in Las Vegas was something that the NHL had never seen before. For the last in-person draft, the NHL sure went out with a bang. Other professional leagues should consider this setting if the NHL won’t return there.

As expected, the Sharks took Macklin Celebrini of Boston University with the first overall pick. It remains to be seen whether Celebrini will suit up for the Sharks this season, so I won’t try to speculate on his fantasy value. In keeper leagues, he should be at the top of the list of any 2024 drafted players.

I don’t have a detailed breakdown of each pick here. However, Puneet Sharma will provide that over the next few weeks in The Journey, starting with yesterday's Part 1. 

You can also follow Peter Harling, Victor Nuno, Hadi Kalakeche, and Sebastian High of DobberProspects, who were at the Draft. Apologies if I missed anyone else from their team!

And of course, you can purchase your copy of the Prospects Report for 2024 draft-eligible players, if you haven’t already. (june29)

2. Friday and Saturday were big days for a lot of people under the Dobber umbrellas as we had the 2024 Entry Draft.

As I always mention when I do this, I am not a prospect analyst. I peruse things like that Dobber Draft Guide as well as sources I trust like Scott Wheeler and Corey Pronman at The Athletic, Bob McKenzie at TSN, the prospect model from Hockey Prospecting, and so on. I have watched the top picks whether it be from the World Juniors, U18 World Championships, the Frozen Four, the Memorial Cup, or wherever else, but I won’t sit here and pretend I’m grinding Medicine Hat Tigers game tape during the NHL season. There are more than enough NHL games to watch and that is pertinent to my day-to-day work. So, take these observations with a grain of salt and all that.

With that preamble out of the way, here are the guys I was keeping an eye on this weekend (at time of writing):

Ivan Demidov

There has been a lot of chatter lately that Demidov might slide in the draft for one reason or another. This is where we’ll note that the Dobber Prospects Report has him as the consensus number-3 prospect in hockey behind Macklin Celebrini and Matvei Michkov, Bob McKenzie has him second in his rankings for this season only, and the HP model has him neck-and-neck with Celebrini for likelihood of turning into a star. (Ed. note: When all said and done, Demidov was selected fifth-overall by Montreal).  (june28)

[Follow the link for the rest of Cliffy's pre-Draft thoughts…]

3. The Canucks were busy these last few days. On Thursday, they were able to extend both Dakota Joshua and Tyler Myers before they could reach free agency.

Myers has been much maligned for his previous contract, which had a cap hit of $6 million. However, a $3 million cap hit for three more seasons should be easier to swallow. He will most likely be a second- or third-pairing defenseman on the right side, and he seems more effective when he is not forced into a top-pairing role.

Joshua is more of a player of interest in fantasy leagues, particularly bangers leagues. Joshua’s 18 goals in 63 games surprised many, as he is not a heavy-volume shooter (just 1.3 SOG/GP) and generally did not play on a scoring line. Joshua is a heavy hitter, with his 244 hits (in just 63 games) placing him in the top 10 in that category. He’s worth a late-round flier in mid-sized to deep leagues that count hits simply for that category, with any scoring being a nice bonus. He should receive decent minutes on what should be an effective shutdown line with Conor Garland and Teddy Blueger (53.8 CF%). (june29)

Late Wednesday night, Vancouver traded forward Ilya Mikheyev to the Chicago Blackhawks. I broke down Mikheyev’s game and the details of that trade here. (june28)

Vancouver also re-signed forward Teddy Blueger to a two-year contract worth a little under $2M per season. He had a very good year in the bottom-6 of the Canucks with 28 points and 98 hits in 68 games. While he is not overly fantasy relevant, he is a key part of the team’s typically-good penalty kill, and that’s something that can help out Thatcher Demko‘s goaltending numbers. That makes Blueger fantasy relevant, even if it’s not in the way we usually imagine. (june27)

4. The first six players for each side of the Four Nations Tournament were announced on Friday. Both obvious and interesting choices were made for Canada, the US, Sweden, and Finland, but I feel like this is a topic that can be discussed another day. Or perhaps wait until the full rosters are announced. Isn’t there enough happening at this time of year? Maybe I’ll check back on this in August, when news is sparse.

The list of players selected can be found here. (june29)

5. It’s hard to gauge what Steven Stamkos would look like on another team, as he has played only for the Lightning since the 2008-09 season. I don’t see the logic of the Lightning reacquiring Ryan McDonagh while letting Stamkos walk, and a $3 million per season offer to a player of Stamkos’ accomplishments and ability will do that. Yet according to Stamkos’ agent, Stamkos will be a free agent on July 1. Things can change and the agent’s comments may be just posturing, but we have to discuss Stamkos as a possible free agent now.

I don’t think the now 34-year-old Stamkos would sign with a rebuilding team unless he is given a 4+ year contract, but I think that’s one of the only situations where he would lose value. When I say “rebuilding team,” I mean teams like Chicago or San Jose – not teams like Ottawa, Buffalo, or Detroit, who may be on the verge of making the playoffs.

The other negative scenarios might involve Stamkos being the odd man out for some reason on a new team when it comes to linemates and power-play minutes. Despite his relatively advanced age, Stamkos is coming off a season in which he scored 40 goals and 81 points in 79 games, so it’s hard to imagine him on a team’s second-unit power play or third line, at least right away.

6. Sam Reinhart is believed to be staying with the Stanley Cup champion Panthers. Until recently and for obvious reasons, he likely hadn’t thought as much as the other free agents about where he will play next season.

Reinhart is due for a regression wherever he plays, as his previous career high was 33 goals before his 57-goal outburst in 2023-24. In other words, a 24.5% shooting accuracy doesn’t seem sustainable, especially when he has ranged between 10-19% throughout the rest of his career. That being said, Reinhart had maxed out at 25 goals for a struggling Sabres team before scoring at least 30 goals in each of his three seasons with the Panthers. The better the team and linemates, the less significant the goal-scoring regression will be.  

Reinhart will likely be overpaid relative to his future production (as will many other UFA signings), but his 50-goal season places him in the top 3 among available free agents. See our 2024 Free Agency Salary Projections, compiled by Alex MacLean. (june29)

7. Free Agent Frenzy starts Monday and though there isn’t a deep class of stars to pick from, there are still a lot of interesting names that could have significant fantasy value depending on their landing spot. Contract projections will largely be from Evolving Hockey with cap data from CapFriendly and stats from Natural Stat Trick. For today, we will ignore the Big Three of Steven Stamkos, Jake Guentzel, and Sam Reinhart. They will have fantasy value no matter where they land. Same with Brandon Montour.

Jonathan Marchessault

With Marchessault going into his age-34 season, it’ll be hard for him to get a long-term deal. It seems likely he takes something short, perhaps in the 3- to 5-year range, and the contract projection for him is nearly $7M if he’s on the shorter end of that term. The 2023 Conn Smythe winner has 100 goals over his last three seasons, and that’s tied for 31^st in the league in that span. He has managed to produce well whether playing with Jack Eichel, William Karlsson, or Nicolas Roy as his center, so he’s remained productive no matter the type of center he has. That should be something teams are aware of because it allows lineup flexibility on how they want to use his talents.

Though he’s shown his scoring penchant, especially with this 42-goal season he just had, Marchessault is also very good in transition, being able to dig the puck defensively, get it out of the defensive zone, and get it into the offensive zone with efficiency.

All this has led to positive expected goals impacts at both ends of the ice, too. At his age, it’s always fair to wonder when the drop-off will come, but any Cup contender that misses out on the Big Three would have a very worthy consolation prize in Marchessault. That could mean the Carolina Hurricanes, but he would also fit well with Los Angeles or Nashville. (june27)

8. Teuvo Teravainen

It will be interesting to see how team's value Teräväinen. At his peak, he was a very good playmaker, but those days seem behind him now. Consider that over the last three seasons he has averaged 0.9 assists per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play, which is less than teammate Jesperi Kotkaniemi, and tied with names like Victor Olofsson and Marcus Foligno across the league, and that is not nearly good enough. He turns 30 years old in September, so there should still be good years left if he can turn things around, and we saw a similar player in Mikael Granlund do just that once he left Pittsburgh (though that wasn’t a multi-year downswing).

It makes me wonder if this era of Hurricanes hockey was just a bad fit for the crafty winger. Carolina is a team that plays through its defensemen and funnels pucks to the net looking for tips, deflections, and rebounds. That is decidedly not his game. All the same, contract projections have him at five years between $6.5M-$7M, and at that price, I’d rather just sign Marchessault. If he commands less than that, a team that could use help with offensive creativity like Los Angeles, Anaheim, Calgary, and St. Louis should be in the mix. (june27)

9. Viktor Arvidsson

On the topic of Los Angeles, which team is going to take the chance on Arvidsson? In 2022-23, he had 26 goals and 59 points while skating 17 minutes a night. He was injured for much of 2023-24 but still managed six goals and nine assists in 18 games. On the topic of stylistic fits, this is a volume shooter who typically doesn’t finish at a high rate, but this is a versatile player. As recently as 2022-23, Arvidsson could play both off the rush and off the forecheck, getting to the net for rebounds and also setting up for one-timers. He did all this while being very good on zone entries.

The entire problem is he’s shot under 7% at 5-on-5 across the last three seasons. Playing for Los Angeles certainly doesn’t help, but that’s outside the top-12 defensemen of the league, let alone forwards. At a certain point, so many low-percentage shots hurt, so the team acquiring him needs playmakers in the lineup. If he signs a short 1- or 2-year deal (EH has him with one year at about $3M), he makes a lot of sense for teams like Dallas, Vancouver, and the New York Rangers. (june27)

10. Jake DeBrusk

Across the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons, DeBrusk averaged 30 goals every 82 games while skating under 16 minutes a night. That is excellent production. He also skated nearly half his 5-on-5 time with Patrice Bergeron in those two seasons and his on-ice goal rate with the Hall of Fame center was 3.76. That number fell to 2.47 without him, or a decline of 34%. In 2023-24, Boston scored 2.39 goals per 60 minutes when DeBrusk was on the ice at 5-on-5, or about the number from 2021-23 without Bergeron. Individually, DeBrusk’s goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 with Bergeron was 1.57, and over the last three seasons when he didn’t have Bergeron as his center, that fell to 0.87. That is good enough for second-line production, and his contract projection is for five years at $5.8M. It seems fine.

All told, I don’t think DeBrusk is as good as he’s shown in his prime top-line minutes nor is he as bad as he looks when he’s demoted to the third line or something. He is a capable second liner, and if he can get consistent top PP minutes somewhere like Utah, he could have a career year, but he also seems like a good winger replacement in Carolina. (june27)

11. Matt Duchene

Duchene didn’t have a monster season by the boxcar stats with 25 goals and 40 assists, but that’s pretty good, and a nice bounce back after being bought out by Nashville. He also had a higher points-per-minute rate at 5-on-5 than teammates Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz. Over the last three seasons, his goals for/against differential per minute at even strength is higher than names like Elias Pettersson, Brad Marchand, Mark Stone, and Joel Eriksson Ek. There is a very good player here.

The 2023-24 campaign had Duchene succeed in a number of offensive areas that don’t show up in stat lines: assists on teammate chances, high-danger helpers, creating offensively both off the rush and off the forecheck, and all while being a wizard on zone entries.

As an older player like Marchessault, Duchene’s contract projection is on the shorter end, and likely a 3-year term. The cap hit is about the same (a little over $7M), and if he signs that kind of deal, contending teams that fail to sign one of the Big Three, or Marchessault, would do well to kick the tires here. He can help any line improve offensively, and perhaps by a lot. (june27)

12. Brady Skjei

Another Carolina Hurricane that may be on the move is Skjei, who had a career year in 2023-24 with 47 points, registering 13 goals, 185 shots, 12 power play points, and 90 blocks. He isn’t a multi-cat merchant, but this is another player who will be interesting to see where he lands outside of Carolina. Contract projections have him going for seven years at about $7.5M per season. As a percentage of an $88M cap, that would be just outside the top-30 defensemen. Even if there are a dozen RFA d-men that play as top pair options, that kind of money is money for a number-2 defenseman, or in the range of names like Devon Toews and Noah Hanifin. For a guy that is going into his age-30 season, he’s a fringe top-pair guy right now, so he’s best suited to be a second-pair option on a contender. Are there contenders with the cap space and desire to give him that kind of money? We will find out soon, but my guess is if he really is going to get that type of contract, that is more of a Chicago Blackhawks/San Jose Sharks/Calgary Flames signing than a Colorado Avalanche/Florida Panthers/New Jersey Devils signing. (june27)

13. Sean Walker

Very recently, I wrote about the heavy lifting that Walker did for the Philadelphia Flyers as it pertains to zone exits and moving the puck up the ice. This is a guy who loves jumping into the rush and becoming a fourth attacker, if not just getting the puck quickly to the forwards. He is coming off a career year with 10 goals, 19 assists, 150 shots, 127 blocks, and 118 hits all tying or surpassing prior career-best marks. He is going into his age-30 season and his contract projection is five years and around $5M a season. That is second-pair money, and a lot more palatable than what Skjei may be asking for.

Wherever he lands, Walker is unlikely to earn top PP minutes so expecting more than 30 points is expecting too much. However, he is a player that can help at both ends of the ice and can help the forwards improve their scoring rates, however marginally, at 5-on-5. He would be a great addition for the Rangers if they can make the money work, but Boston and Winnipeg could also use his services. The Jets, especially, could use another defenseman after Josh Morrissey that can really chip in offensively. (june27)

14. The new Hockey Hall of Fame class was just announced this past week. As great as it is to recognize the greats, the Hall of Fame is a bit of a farce at this point. Having a lower limit on women’s greats, keeping Alexander Mogilny out of the Hall in favor of someone with outside issues and a lack of hardware like Jeremy Roenick, on top of a lack of accountability with the voting system, none of it is being done properly. Changes need to be made with the system. (june26)

15. The Boston sports teams are masters of ensuring that any of their negative news comes out behind something else in the news cycle that day. Last Monday, it was the trading of Linus Ullmark, which might have been seen as a negative on its own, but with the return as underwhelming as it was, it’s definitely a negative for the fans.

Brennan had his take on the deal here, and I didn’t disagree with anything said, but I wanted to add another little tidbit which centers on Brandon Bussi. Bussi is not waivers exempt next year, and is someone the Bruins would like to keep around. He would probably get claimed if he was put on waivers, and it’s unlikely Boston runs with three goalies. That means that unless Bussi is traded (and he doesn’t have huge trade value to manage that with) then we could see Joonas Korpisalo waived and start the year in Providence. This would allow him to take the pressure off, rebuild his game, and maybe build some trade value. It would also give Jeremy Swayman a clear run with the starter’s role, and Bussi an open trial for the backup spot. Korpisalo is then the fallback options if either of the other two falter.

Or maybe Jeremy Swayman is traded for a top-line center. Wouldn’t that be fun. (june26)

16. Dylan Demelo was re-signed by the Winnipeg Jets to a four-year $4.9 million AAV deal. He’s been a 30-point Dman the last two seasons, but saw his peripherals bump up last year with more minutes. Assuming he keeps the same role next year, then he should be able to keep up the two Hits and 1.7 Blks per game. (june26)

17. The more interesting signing from a fantasy perspective is Casey Mittelstadt re-upping in Colorado for $5.75 million a season for three years. Mittelstadt underwhelmed in the regular season after being acquired from Colorado, with only 10 points in 18 games. However, he picked it up in the postseason, with nine points in 11 games.

Since arriving from Colorado he has played mainly alongside Artturi Lehkonen, with a rotating cast on the other wing. The uncertain status for Valeri Nichushkin means that there is some power play time to fill as well, for a more permanent spot on the lethal top unit.

Mittelstadt paced for 59 and 58 points over the last two seasons respectively, so that’s probably the best spot to begin with his projections for next year as well. (june26)

18. The Hershey Bears defeated the Coachella Valley Firebirds in the AHL final for the second year in a row, with a 5-4 win in overtime. Hendrix Lapierre won the MVP award with two points in the final game to go with 22 in 20 playoff games, and is building up a ton of momentum to help him win a permanent roster spot with Washington in the fall.

Shane Wright looked just as dominant out there for the Firebirds, with 13 points in 12 playoff games, and three points in a losing effort in the final game. He should be a full-time top-six player for Seattle next year, and because of the ELC slides, he still has three seasons left on his entry-level deal, which will be a huge boon to Seattle’s cap situation as they try to jump back into the playoffs. (june26)

19. In case you didn’t fully believe it yet without official confirmation, you can now. Matvei Michkov is coming to North America. His contract with SKA has been terminated, and he will be at Philadelphia Flyers training camp battling for a roster spot. Get excited fantasy owners.

Don’t expect the point-per-game to 100-point player impact right away that Artemi Panarin and Kirill Kaprizov had though, both were older and more developed when coming over, and while Michkov looks fantastic, there will likely still be more of an adjustment period. (june26)

20. Here is Brennan's take on Michkov: He had the talent to go second overall in the 2023 draft. However, due to his KHL contract commitments, there were concerns he’d be stuck in Russia for a few years. Those concerns caused him to fall on draft day, until the Flyers swooped in and snagged him seventh overall. It now appears that those concerns were overblown as we learned on Sunday that Michkov is set to be released from his KHL team, setting the stage for his Flyers’ debut in 2024-25. What are the fantasy implications of this, you ask?

Let’s start with a reminder of where the Flyers are right now. This is a team that surpassed expectations during the regular season, battling for a playoff spot until the very end. Their success was fuelled by strong defense – very on brand for a team coached by John Tortorella. Although their offense ranked 27^th in the league, averaging just 2.82 goals per game, their defense ranked 19^th, with 3.15 goals against per game. I imagine they would have surrendered even fewer goals had the inexperienced Samuel Ersson not been thrust into a starting role. The team’s defensive prowess this past season might be easier to grasp when you consider they surrendered the second fewest shots per game and ranked top-10 in expected goals against at even strength (via NaturalStatTrick). With Philly’s success this season built upon team-first, defensively responsible play, it’s fair to wonder how a 19-year-old offensive superstar fits into that game plan.

On one hand, Tortorella seems to be better at coaching young players today than he had been in years past. On the other hand, as a young, offensively inclined player, Michkov is bound to face some growing pains as Tortorella integrates him into a more defensive style of play. Although Tortorella emphasizes certain defensive aspects of the game, he doesn’t hate offensive superstars. Artemi Panarin posted an 83-point and 90-point pace during his two years under Tortorella in Columbus, averaging nearly 20 minutes of action a night. Sure, Panarin took a step forward when he went to New York where he was surrounded by more talent, but we often forget that the Russian star was more productive in Columbus than he was in Chicago.

With a full offseason ahead of us, rosters are still very fluid, so I’d rather not project linemates at this time. I will say that adding Michkov to the fold provides a significant boost to the Flyers’ offense and players who skate beside him should improve on last season’s point totals. That applies at even strength and on the power play. Speaking of the power play…

Philadelphia has been horrendous with the man advantage in recent years. Their power play has finished dead last in each of the past three seasons, sporting a 12.6% success rate in 2021-22, 15.6% in 2022-23, and 12.2% in 2023-24. Aside from Travis Konecny, they haven’t really had elite offensive talent in the lineup during this period, so their lacklustre numbers on the PP aren’t all that surprising – but that brings us to another point.

During this three-year stretch, Konecny has been the team’s most productive player by far. There’s a chasm between his 181 points and the 123 amassed by second place Joel Farabee. As the team’s greatest scoring threat, you’d expect Konecny to receive significant opportunity with the man advantage, where his offensive ability would theoretically flourish. However, in this case, reality isn’t necessarily logical. Over the past three years, Konecny has only seen a modest 56% share of Philly’s total power-play time. There has been some fluctuation in that number, which moved from 53%, to 61%, to 56% over this three-year span. Still, that’s not the high volume you’d expect from a player that was far and away Philly’s greatest attacker. While most successful teams stack one power-play unit and give that group the lion’s share of action, Philly has been adamant about splitting time relatively evenly between two units. Such a strategy limits the offensive ceiling of the team’s skaters because they don’t get the opportunity to rack up lofty power-play point totals like other players do.   

In a situation where he has freedom and optimal offensive opportunity, Michkov has the talent to produce 70 points as a rookie. However, on a Flyers’ team that probably wants to push for the playoffs after last year’s success, playing for a coach that emphasizes defensive responsibility, Michkov probably won’t get the deployment necessary to achieve lofty point totals in year one. Instead, I’d expect a more modest output – perhaps something in the 55-point ballpark? (june24)

21. And last, but definitely not least: Sam Reinhart‘s 10^th goal of the postseason proved to be the difference as the Florida Panthers captured the first Stanley Cup in franchise history thanks to a 2-1 win in Game 7. Reinhart ripped a shot under goaltender Stuart Skinner‘s glove, and the game-winner was a fitting end to a season where the winger finished second in the league in goals.

Carter Verhaeghe scored his 11^th goal of the playoffs to get the ball rolling less than five minutes into the contest, but Mattias Janmark replied a couple of minutes later to tie things up. That set the stage for Sergei Bobrovsky to shut the door the rest of the way, stopping 23 of 24 shots faced.

This was a tremendous game from start to finish. Florida carried the play but Edmonton had their fair share of chances as well. Aleksander Barkov did a very good job keeping the Connor McDavid line in check, and it helped lift his team to a championship. It was a fitting end to a great series.

McDavid was voted as the Conn Smythe winner for the playoff MVP. (june25)

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Be sure to grab your copy of the 2024 Dobber Fantasy Hockey Prospects Report!

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Have a good week, folks!
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