After being bought out by Vancouver, there was a lot of uncertainty around Oliver Ekman-Larsson's future. Safe to say that after a 32-point regular season with the Florida Panthers that included heavy minutes early on because of the injuries to Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour, capped with a Stanley Cup win, his value has been recouped. As a result, he has signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs:

Let's break down what it means.

What Toronto Gets

With the signing of Chris Tanev, and now Ekman-Larsson, it seems the Leafs are now leaning towards a veteran group on the blue line. Tanev is 34 years old, OEL turns 33 in a couple of weeks, Jake McCabe turns 31 in October, and Morgan Rielly is also on the wrong side of 30. They are really pushing in the chips to win a Cup in the next few years.

As for OEL, one thing he did in Florida was play a smart game. Sometimes that is just hockey babble, but tracking data from AllThreeZones had his failed zone exit rate at 5-on-5 land at 18.1% against a team average of 25.2% from their blue line (26.1% league-wide). He also denied the Florida blue line on opponent zone entries at a 16.1% clip against a team average of 12.6% (league average of 8.8%). Ekman-Larsson didn't turn the puck over that often and helped prevent the opposition from gaining the offensive zone with control. He stood out extremely well in these areas when compared to the league:

The question is if he can bring that game to Toronto with him. If yes, this is a guy who can help the back end on the second and third pairs while also get the puck moving up the ice to the forwards. If he's more like the OEL from 2019-2022, then it becomes a big problem for the Leafs.

As for production, it is worth noting that Rielly had 20 power play points last season for Toronto while every other defenceman combined for 14 power play points. For his part, OEL had 11 in Florida, partly thanks to running the power play for the first five weeks as Brandon Montour recovered from surgery. From the date of Montour's return, Ekman-Larsson posted 22 total points in 64 games, or roughly a 28-point pace. Expecting him to post more than 30 points again, unless he somehow supplants Rielly on the top PP unit, seems like expecting too much. However, he can push for a block per game and triple-digit hits and that, combined with 30 points, is a solid multi-cat performer.

It will be interesting to see where OEL slots in the lineup. He is a left shot but has played both sides at times in his career. Whether he can do that at 33 years old is fair to wonder, but it's not a guarantee he stays on the left side all season. For now, he's probably on the second pair, and that pushes Simon Benoit to the third pair, which is where he should be. It doesn't change much for Tanev or Timothy Liljegren for now.

With both Ekman-Larsson and Brandon Montour moving on, there is now a need for a top power play guy in Florida. Aaron Ekblad had that role just a couple of years ago, so maybe they just give it back to him, but could this be the chance Gustav Forsling needs to get a top PP role? They seemed hesitant to use him like that in 2023-24 but their hands may be tied unless they make a big trade. For now, it's good news for both Ekblad and Forsling, and I'm betting the latter more than the former.

Who This Helps

Gustav Forsling

Aaron Ekblad

Niko Mikkola

Joseph Woll

Who This Hurts

Simon Benoit