Fantasy Take: Monahan’s Bet Pays Off Big, Signs For Five Years in Columbus
Michael Clifford
2024-07-01
After leaving Calgary and betting on himself in Montreal, Sean Monahan posted a 26-goal, 59-point season in 2023-24, plus a brief playoff run with Winnipeg. As a result of reclaiming his value, Monahan has found a home in the Eastern Conference with the Columbus Blue Jackets:
Monahan goes to a team that looks to be through with its rebuild and wants to start pushing for the playoffs. Let's break it down.
What Columbus Gets
This is an interesting move for Columbus as they have Boone Jenner signed for two more years, have Adam Fantilli ready to break out, and Dmitri Voronkov had a breakout season of sorts in 2023-24. Monahan certainly adds centre depth to a team that got thin last season but that was due to injury and if they can stay healthy, they have a bit of a logjam. To me, that says Fantilli at least starts the season on the wing while they run a trio of Jenner-Monahan-Voronkov down the middle. Or maybe it's Voronkov that goes to the wing while the Fantilli stays down the middle. Either way, if Monahan is now the second-line centre, one of the younger guys is going to be on the third line (almost certainly Voronkov). There is also Cole Sillinger, who took some big minutes at the end of the season. He might go from 19 minutes a night on the top line in April of 2024 to 12 minutes a night on the fourth line in October of 2024.
Despite being known for his goal scoring, it was Monahan's playmaking that stood out in 2023-24. His scoring chance assist rate at 5-on-5 was right on the line of one standard deviation above the league average, per AllThreeZones, and that is easily a first-line rate:
He was able to score 26 goals, but his 33 assists tied for the third-highest mark of his career. In guys like Fantilli, Voronkov, Yegor Chinakhov, and Kirill Marchenko, there are goal scorers on the wing. Having a centre who can get them the puck is good to have, and that's what Monahan can do.
Adding Monahan does greatly muddle the top power play unit. Zach Werenski is running the blue line and Johnny Gaudreau is staying there. If Patrik Laine isn't traded, maybe he's there as well. After that, there are probably a half-dozen guys with a decent case for a top role. If we assume Laine gets traded, there are two open forward spots between Fantilli, Jenner, Marchenko, Chinakhov, and Voronkov. My bet is that Fantilli and Jenner get first crack, but it feels like a fluid situation unless they're lights out from the get-go. It should also be mentioned that Winnipeg's goal scoring rate on the PP declined with Monahan, so he's not a one-stop fix for Columbus's PP woes.
On top of Tyler Toffoli leaving Winnipeg, this leaves a couple holes in the Jets roster. Again, Cole Perfetti seems primed for a bigger role but I'll believe it when I see it.
Who This Helps
Kirill Marchenko
Who This Hurts
Dmitri Voronkov