There have been rumblings all offseason, and even back to the Trade Deadline, that the Pittsburgh Penguins were looking to move on from Reilly Smith. Things just didn't work out with his new team as evidenced by his 13 goals (lowest for him since 2014-15) and 40 points (lowest in a full season since 2016-17). The trade finally came to fruition as he was sent to the New York Rangers for a second and fifth round pick as well as retained salary on Pittsburgh's end:

Let's break down the deal.

What New York Gets

When Smith is at his best, he's a multi-purpose forward. He can set up teammates for chances, he can score on his own, he can play both off the rush and off the cycle, and can even help out a bit in transition. This is what that looked like in 2022-23 with Vegas, per AllThreeZones's tracking data:

Some of those numbers, particularly the playmaking, were a lot better in 2021-22, but he's a player that can impact both ends of the ice. He also turned 33 years old in April, so there's always the concern this is the start of the true downswing of his career and not just a blip on the radar.

One part of Smith's downturn in scoring was secondary assists at 5-on-5. He managed just 0.36 secondary helpers per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play, per Natural Stat Trick. Over the prior two seasons, that rate was 0.56. An extra 0.2 assists per 60 minutes of play over a full season could be about four points, which isn't a lot, but when we add the downturn in short-handed point production, he was short-changed about 7-8 points through usage and luck. Being able to boost his production by 20% through normal usage and a bounce back in secondary assists is certainly a good start.

There is a two-fold problem with Smith going to the Rangers, though.

The first problem is that he's a left winger going to a team that has Chris Kreider and Artemi Panarin. This all-but-certainly means Smith is going to the third line, and he won't be on the top PP unit, either. Last season, the team's top five forwards – the power play guys plus Alexis Lafrenière – averaged between 13:40 and 16:30 in even strength ice time per game. After them, the next-highest mark was Kaapo Kakko at 12:08. Add that to secondary PP minutes (maybe 1:15 per game) and Smith could be staring down the barrel of playing dropping from between 16 and 18 minutes for nearly a decade to 13-14 minutes. Maybe he gets close to 15 minutes if he gets a spot on the penalty kill, but he is assuredly going to lose ice time. That is infrequently a good thing.

Even if Smith's per-minute production bounces back, it may not mean much of a bounce back in production. Unless he's moved to the right wing, his upside should be about 20 goals and 45 points. There is also a lot of downside if he doesn't find chemistry on the third line, too, so he could very well be a 15-goal, 30-point player in 2024-25.

This is one of those 'better in reality than in fantasy' trades. In theory, a third line of Smith, Filip Chytil, and Kaapo Kakko could be very good. For fantasy, it might mean 35-40 points.

Adding Smith almost certainly means Will Cuylle starts the season on the fourth line. Again, good for the team, but probably not good for his fantasy value. If he can be a 15-goal, 25-point guy, that's a successful season. His game is monster hit totals anyway, and he did have 249 skating 11:08 per game last season, so not much really changes for him. It does block prospects like Brennan Othmann but Smtih has just one year on his deal and injuries happen anyway.

For now, it opens up the left side in Pittsburgh and gives Michael Bunting more security, but that's a team that should be busy on the trade front.

Who This Helps

Filip Chytil

Michael Bunting

Who This Hurts

Reilly Smith

Will Cuylle

Brennan Othmann