In one of the truly shocking signings of the day – which is saying a lot – Chandler Stephenson's time with Vegas came to an end as he signed a monster contract with another Western Conference team. Not long after signing Brandon Montour to a seven-year deal, the Seattle Kraken did the exact same thing with Stephenson:

After posting back-to-back 60-point seasons, Stephenson fell to 51 points in 75 games in 2023-24. Let's break it down.

What Seattle Gets

There is no way to sugarcoat Stephenson's 2023-24 campaign from a real-life perspective: it was awful. His game on offence is playmaking and last year he managed 2.23 scoring chance assists per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play (helpers on teammate chances), per AllThreeZones. For a reference, Vegas's team average among forwards was 2.97 and Stephenson's rate was lower than both Paul Cotter (2.33) and Michael Amadio (2.50). In 2022-23, Stephenson's rate was 4.74 per 60 minutes, more than double that of last season. Back in 2021-22, his rate was 3.37, or about 50% higher than 2023-24. Long story short, he went from a high-end, first-line playmaker to a below average option.

What makes this even more problematic is that the new Kraken forward played about 44% of his 5-on-5 time with Mark Stone and the team's share of both expected goals (43.7%, per Natural Stat Trick) and actual goals (48.5%) were much, much worse when Stone and Stephenson were on the ice than when Stone had anyone else on his line (61% and 62%, respectively). It can't be pinned on a down year from Stone because he did so much better elsewhere, which is probably why Stephenson’s HockeyViz chart looks awful:

A negative number on the top left is bad, and a positive number on the bottom left is also bad. This is bad. It is quite bad.

If Stephenson can revert back to the guy he was in 2022-23, he might not contribute much defensively to Seattle, but that's not what they need. They need someone who can help the likes of Matty Beniers, Jaden Schwartz, Jordan Eberle, and Oliver Bjorkstrand score some goals. When Stephenson is at his best, he can elevate the scoring rates of his line mates. When he's not, he's not a very useful real-life or fantasy player.

To that end, the power play usage is also an issue. Maybe a new coach changes things, but Frozen Tools has Seattle with nine (!) forwards earning between 42%-52% of the team's PPTOI last season. A couple of them have moved on, but adding Stephenson doesn't change the equation a whole lot. Going from 55% of the power play time in Vegas to 45% of the power play time in Seattle won't help Stephenson improve much on the 13 power play points he had last season. In fact, Seattle had just two forwards accumulate more than 13 power play points, so it's an uphill climb. It is doubtful he improves much on the 51 points he had last season, if at all.

Back in Vegas, with Stephenson and Jonathan Marchessault leaving, it is great news for guys like William Karlsson, Pavel Dorofeyev, and the newly-acquired Alex Holtz. My guess is that Karlsson gets first crack at being the fourth forward on the power play, but it leaves Dorofeyev just one step away from top PP minutes. It also likely means that Nicolas Roy is locked in as the third-line centre, but that will be made more certain in training camp.

Who This Helps

Jordan Eberle

Oliver Bjorkstrand

Who This Hurts

Tye Kartye

Seattle Goaltending

Eeli Tolvanen