Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

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1. This week – particularly Monday July 1 – has been extremely busy with signings, trades, and other news. You can read through any or all of the fantasy implications of the major transactions in the Fantasy Take – Latest NHL Moves page.

The goalie market on July 1 wasn’t that significant relative to other positions. For the most part, teams have a plan in net for the coming season. Jacob Markstrom and Linus Ullmark were the biggest names on the block, and they were both traded before the playoffs had finished. That doesn’t mean there weren’t goalie signings, though. Many goalies signed contracts on July 1 and even the days after.

With the tidal wave of signings that usually occur on July 1, we simply didn’t have time to break down the goalie situations that day. I’ll discuss a few goalies that switched teams, but not goalies that re-signed with their existing team (eg. Juuse Saros, Joseph Woll). I’ll also focus on goalies with the highest cap hit and/or goalies that will take on the most significant workload. For example, Ilya Samsonov (below): (july6)

2. Samsonov to Vegas (1 year, $1.8 million cap hit)

Samsonov couldn’t really cash in after signing the one-year “prove it” contract with the Leafs last summer. He’ll get another crack at a larger multi-year contract by signing for one year with the Golden Knights. The Knights also acquired Akira Schmid while trading Logan Thompson. Schmid is expected to be the third-string goalie who will start the season in the AHL.

Adin Hill is the much higher-paid goalie ($4.9 million cap hit) with the Stanley Cup ring as well, so he’s likely still the opening-night starter. Hill has had his share of injuries and has never played more than 35 games in a season (which was in 2023-24), so Samsonov should receive more than just the odd start beyond back-to-backs. He may thrive under a less-pressured environment than he faced in Toronto. The question still remains whether he is the Samsonov of his first season in Toronto (2.33 GAA, .919 SV%, 17.66 GSAA) or his second season in Toronto (3.13 GAA, .890 SV%, -14.56 GSAA). (july6)

[Follow the link for more…]

3. Here is the list of players that have filed for arbitration:

Jake Christiansen, Blue Jackets
Connor Deward, Maple Leafs
Jack Drury, Hurricanes
Ty Emberson, Sharks
Jet Greaves, Blue Jackets
Ryan Lindgren, Rangers
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Sabres
Beck Malenstyn, Sabres
Kirill Marchenko, Blue Jackets
J.J. Moser, Lightning
Martin Necas, Hurricanes
Spencer Stastney, Predators
Joe Veleno, Red Wings
Oliver Wahlstrom, Islanders (july6)

4. The Oilers have traded Ryan McLeod and Tyler Tullio to the Sabres for Matt Savoie. McLeod looked okay as a bottom-6 forward for the Oilers during the playoffs, but Savoie seems like a lot for the Sabres to give up for a return of McLeod and mid-level prospect Tullio. Savoie was the Sabres’ first-round pick (9^th overall) in 2022, who just came off a 71-point season in just 34 games in the WHL. That’s two points per game! From the Prospects Report, only nine players have scored at least two points per game in the Dub over the past 25 years.

Maybe the Sabres are thinking short-term and like the element that McLeod brings to their lineup. Trades also take time to play out, and we sometimes forget that prospect success is never guaranteed. But right now, it’s hard not to think that the Oilers won this deal. It’s been a tough offseason for Sabres fans, considering that their most significant signing is Jason Zucker after clearing a bunch of cap space with the Jeff Skinner buyout. For more on Savoie, see his Dobber Prospects profile. (july6)

5. As mentioned above, July 1 was something, wasn’t it? I’ve had fantasy drafts that have taken longer than it took for most of the significant names to fall off the board. If there really is a tampering rule, then no one is following it.

Vladimir Tarasenko was widely considered the top remaining free agent on the board after the mayhem that was July 1. Now that Tarasenko is off the board, let’s examine what’s left of the free agent crop and what value they might hold in fantasy leagues.

[Fantasy Take: Red Wings Land Tarasenko]

(At time of writing) Forwards who could be fantasy relevant if signed: Daniel Sprong, James van Riemsdyk, Alex Nylander, Max Pacioretty, Tyler Johnson.

For perhaps defensive reasons, Sprong doesn’t seem to fit into the plans of teams despite back-to-back seasons of 40+ points and double-digit power-play points. All of this despite only 11-12 minutes per game. As I write this, 10 teams still have over $10 million in cap space. The Ducks and Flames have $20 million in cap space. The Sabres were a massive disappointment in free agency. Also, what says you, Leafs fans? (july5)

6. I was surprised that the Blue Jackets did not qualify Nylander. Upon being traded to Columbus in what seemed like a meaningless deal at the time, Nylander scored 11 goals in 23 games. Maybe he wasn’t Don Waddell’s kind of player. That short run made me interested in whether there could be more.

It feels like now or never for the 35-year-old Pacioretty. Just two seasons ago he was a point-per-game player. Then an Achilles injury that cost him nearly the entire season. Then a midseason return where he scored at a 40-point pace. If he doesn’t make something happen this season, then this could be it for the former Canadiens captain. (july5)

[Follow the link for more…]

7. Defensemen who could be fantasy relevant if signed: Kevin Shattenkirk, Justin Schultz, Tyson Barrie, John Klingberg, Adam Boqvist, Calen Addison.

Lots of power-play experience to choose from here. These are the kind of players that a team could pick up if their top power-play option is injured. Shattenkirk fits that profile to a tee, as that’s what he did when Charlie McAvoy was injured.

I’m still intrigued with Barrie, as I think he got the bum’s rush in Nashville. During the COVID-shortened season, Barrie led all defensemen with 48 points in 56 games while QBing the Edmonton power play. It’s no secret that he’s not a great defender. But stick him on a more offensive-minded team than Nashville and he might pull his weight just on offense. For example, I think the Canucks could use an extra defenseman. (july5)

8. Has anyone heard anything about Klingberg? I know his brief time with the Leafs wasn’t great, but remember how high the fantasy community was on him during his first few seasons with Dallas.

Addison (24) and Boqvist (23) are quite young compared to these grizzled vets. For Addison, 17 points and a minus-38 in 72 games for the Sharks looked really bad. Sheltered minutes with power-play time on a better team seems ideal. Boqvist might just have to avoid injury and find a better team than Columbus. I remember during his draft year when his name was discussed in the same breath as Quinn Hughes, Evan Bouchard, and Noah Dobson. How things change in a few years. (july5)

[Follow the link for more…]

9. I was going to include Jack Roslovic in the list of forwards that could be fantasy relevant when signed, but he recently inked a one-year, $2.8 million contract with the Hurricanes. Roslovic finished with 31 points in 59 games split between the Blue Jackets and Rangers in 2023-24. He also finished with eight points in 16 playoff games for the Rangers.

According to the Carolina depth chart on Frozen Tools, the Canes look kind of weak on the left side, with Jack Drury the only option to “maybe” get into the top 6. Roslovic should provide scoring depth in that area, although his career high of 45 points suggests that he is not a top liner. With the Martin Necas trade still possible, the Canes’ roster may not be a finished product anyway. The Canes also still have to take care of contracts for RFAs Drury and Seth Jarvis. (july5)

10. There were still a handful of key restricted free agents left on the board at mid-week. One of them was Florida’s Anton Lundell, who signed a six-year contract carrying an average annual value of $5-million.

Lundell, fresh off a Stanley Cup win and a 35-point season, will be heading in his age-23 campaign for 2023-24.

For fantasy purposes, especially in cap leagues, this is a bit dicey. Lundell doesn’t hit much – his 61 hits in 2023-24 were by far a career-high – and he doesn’t shoot much, as he’s been around 2.1 shots per game each of the last two seasons. All of Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, and Matthew Tkachuk have long-term contracts, and all will be on the top power play unit. Both Sam Bennett and Carter Verhaeghe have one year left, too. Things can change fast, but Lundell is probably capped in the 40- to 50-point range until those two move on. He could be a fine value in cap leagues started with the 2025-26 season, but next year will be tougher to manage.  (july4)

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For all those interested: Dobber has started his polls on the Forum to vote for the 2024 Fantasy Guide Lowdown writeup for one player per team. You can place your votes and even state your case in the thread! For other teams, search through the Forum, although some polls have expired.

And of course, the Fantasy Hockey Guide will be available on July 29. Everything that you’ve come to know and love about the guide is included again this season – its 19^th year. Preorder yours today!

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11. Free agency has really settled down and all that is left for this offseason are a few important names, but likely more importance should be put on the trade front. Let’s use today to take another look at some of the most impactful moves from our fantasy perspective. 

Elias Lindholm

Anyone that watched their fair share of Boston games in 2023-24 knows they had to address the centre position. They tried to ride out a season post-Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, and did find some success, but it was clear they were lacking a go-to- top-line option that they could use in all situations. I am personally not nearly as high on Lindholm as many other people seem to be, but the Bruins certainly think that of him. He should be going straight to the top-6 forward mix, though it’s not a guarantee he plays primarily with David Pastrnak. They will get time together – the season is 82 games long – but whether it’s 55% of their even strength time or 30% is very much up for debate.

The real reason this is an important signing is it gives them a player who is likely to going to be stuck on the top power play unit. One under-discussed aspect of Boston’s season was a power play that really, really struggled: with Pastrnak, Marchand, and Charlie McAvoy on the ice at 5-on-4, the team scored 5.99 goals per 60 minutes. Across the league, that is worse than some players from Seattle and Chicago. It is not nearly good enough, and it’s fair to wonder if Lindholm will help, given the lack of help he gave the Vancouver Canucks.

All that said, it now gives the team three forwards to use on the top PP unit. The fourth is likely to be Pavel Zacha, and that will push Matthew Poitras to the second unit for much of the season. However, Poitras will be taking the place of Zacha or Lindholm at times, and this is far from a death knell to his fantasy value. (july4)

12. Jeff Skinner

It is hard to imagine a bigger glow-up than going from Buffalo’s bottom-6 forward mix at times towards the end of the 2023-24 season to moving to Edmonton’s top-6 forward mix for the 2024-25 season. This is another section that won’t run long because I have written extensively about how Buffalo overhauled their offence and it hurt the offensive production of nearly every important player on the roster with a couple of exceptions. Nashville literally did this one year ago with Matt Duchene and we saw how that went with his move to Dallas.

The real question for Skinner is whether or not he gets top power play time. All four top forwards that were on Edmonton’s premiere unit are returning, so there’s no guarantee at all that Skinner will be getting top power play time, and that’s important. Consider that over the last three seasons, no Oilers forward reached 40 even strength points unless they were named Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Skinner represents an offensive upgrade on most any name the team has had outside those four players, so maybe he can reclaim his Buffalo production from 2021-22 and 2022-23, but even then, without top PP time, 70 points would be his upper limit.

If he does get top power play time, though, this could very well be a career year for Skinner. I have a lot of faith that he can bounce back for a year or two, and he’s in the best position possible to make that happen. (july4)

13. Steven Stamkos

There isn’t a whole lot to add to what Alex wrote about Stamkos at the time of the signing. It is a bit of a downgrade for Stamkos’s power play output – though I don’t think it’s going to fall off in a big way – and it could help Tommy Novak add some points to his total. That line would struggle defensively, so it’ll be interesting to see what they do with the line combinations. Tampa Bay tried to insulate Stamkos by using him with Anthony Cirelli at 5-on-5 and that had very mixed (and often poor) results. It might be better just to shelter a Stamkos/Novak duo and live with whatever defensive issues crop up.

I will say that Nashville’s top PP unit was pretty good last season. With the trio of Filip Forsberg, Ryan O’Reilly, and Roman Josi on the ice, the team scored 9.6 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-4. It is a fair bit lower than the 11.3 goals/60 scored by Tampa’s top unit, and I don’t think Stamkos gets back to nearly 40 PP points again, but 30 points with the man advantage is very much in play. If he and Novak can find some offensive chemistry that Stamkos and Cirelli couldn’t, maybe it’s not far-fetched that Stamkos pushes for a point per game again? (july4)

[Follow the link for more on Tyler Bertuzzi and David Perron…]

14. On ther re-signing of Victor Hedman in Tampa. A lot of people are saying they gave the exact $8 million to Hedman instead of Steven Stamkos, and they’re drawing conclusions from that. In reality though, they took an extra million and gave it to Jake Guentzel this year. Hedman's new deal doesn't kick in until next year, so him and Stamkos were not fighting for money from the same pie. Hedman's $8 million is actually going to be a lower cap percentage than he's at this year, so he's just keeping his own slice of the pie. It was an either-or with Stammer or Guentzel, and Hedman has nothing to do with it.

Stamkos makes his return to Tampa as a Predator on Oct 28^th. Pencil him down for two goals and an assist.

I know a lot of people don’t like plus-minus as a stat much anymore, but it can be telling over the sample size of a season when used relative to teammates. Stamkos was worst on the team with a minus-21 mark, much worse than most of his frequent line-mates. The Bolts also got rid of Mikhail Sergachev, Tanner Jeannot, Calvin De Haan, Alex Barre-Boulet, Tyler Motte, Matt Dumba, who mark seven of the bottom ten on the team in the stat. They are tightening up as an insulation measure for the current core.

This is all very good news for Andrei Vasilevskiy next year by the way. (july3)

15. Looking at the rest of the free agent signings from the first two days of free agency, there were over 230 contracts signed in total if you include the noteworthy re-signings on June 30^th as well, so there’s a lot to sift through.

I was happy to see that I called the landing spot for Teuvo Teravainen. I think the Blackhawks overpaid him a bit, but then again who haven’t they overpaid over the last two years – that seems to be the whole idea. I do think he will be a great fit with Bedard, especially on the power play. Unfortunately for Lukas Reichel, he likely fills the exact role that Reichel would like to grow into. Three years isn’t forever, but it’s probably a year or two longer than Reichel owners would really like to see. (july3)

16. Here are my top- and bottom-five signings from the past few days. (At time of writing).

Top five:

– Shane Pinto C, Ottawa, two years at $3.75 million:

The most recent signing is a great one in my eyes because it’s something the Senators had to do on a shorter-term deal – they already have too much term up the middle locked up in uncertainty with Josh Norris – and they managed to keep the AAV lower than expected. I was wondering whether Pinto might cost as much as five million, so to have him at under $4 million is a win that Ottawa needs, especially after giving away Mathieu Joseph and Jakob Chychrun.

– Jonathan Marchessault RW, Nashville, five years at $5.5 million

Not even the biggest name signed by Nashville, but being a year younger than Stamkos while also being a recent 40-goal scorer. Usually that kind of production would cost a lot more, and with Marchy’s style of play, he should be able to keep up his production for at least a few years. The last year on the contract might be a burden, but if only one year out of five is a miss in free agency, and the other four are bargains, that’s worthwhile in free agency. (july3)

[Follow the link for more…]

17. The NHL released their schedule for the upcoming season, which runs from Friday October 4^th in Prague, to Thursday April 17^th, where interestingly only Eastern Conference teams are playing. This likely sets up the Western Conference to begin the first round of the playoffs on Saturday April 19^th with two or three matchups.  

I haven’t had a chance to really dive into and analyze the schedule, but will have some more research into it once I have it transferred from the Frozentools schedule planner (which is already updated) to my own spreadsheet, where I can analyze it from a few different angles, especially with Fantasy H2H leagues in mind.

Andrew Santillo also does an excellent breakdown of the schedule including back to backs, off nights, and more for the Fantasy guide. You can pre-order that here. (july3)

18. I remember seeing a tweet back in the spring about Nikita Gusev possibly considering another NHL attempt, and didn’t think much of it at the time.

Here is the tweet from @chris0njd: Gusev is not currently under contract in the KHL, coming off a record-setting 89-point season.

And now, the latest from @JamesNicholsNHL: For whatever reason, Nikita Gusev is at #NJDevils development camp.

The Devils have apparently clarified that he is “just in town training” but sometimes coincidences have a little bit more to them. Regardless of whether it’s with the Devils or another NHL squad, there’s a significant chance that we see NHL games from Gusev again this season. (july3)

19. Though the Flyers have done very little in the offseason, they did announce that Matvei Michkov has signed his three-year entry-level contract. The Flyers don’t have a ton of cap space anyway so they weren’t making a big splash, and just adding Michkov to the top-6 is probably more of an impact than any forward they could have signed outside of the very top of the free agent class. I really, really can’t wait to watch him and Travis Konecny or Owen Tippett play together.

Elsewhere, there was a big RFA signing on Monday as Juraj Slafkovsky signed an eight-year contract extension with an AAV of $7.6M. That extension kicks in for the 2025-26 season.

As the resident Habs fan, I feel it’s my duty to chime in here. It is a big number for a player who has had two seasons, one of which saw him sent to the AHL, but the same thing could have been said of Cole Caufield a year ago and no one is complaining about that contract.

Also, if the salary cap is, say, $91M next season, Slaf’s cap hit works out to be about 8.4% of that $91M. In 2023-24, Tim Stützle‘s cap hit was $8.35M, or 10% of the cap. For a winger comparison, Matt Boldy‘s cap hit in 2023-24 was $7M, or 8.4% of the cap. If Slafkovský puts up a reasonably productive season without this extension, it’s very likely the cap hit is even larger. Fans always want a cheap cap hit, I get that, but this is the first overall pick who had a five-month stretch in his age-19 season where he played to a 59-point pace. If he plays to a 70-point pace in his age-20 season, Montreal is probably looking at an extra million per season if not more. They are banking on continued improvement, and I don’t see why they wouldn’t.

Also, if Slafkovský turns into a 30-goal, 70-point forward who can put up 200 shots and 150 hits, that’s still palatable in cap leagues, so it really isn’t that bad. It’s a big bet, but one very much worth making. (july2)

20. In honour of free agent frenzy, I thought I’d review some of the big-name signings over the past three years to see if there are any lessons for fantasy managers to take into this season.

2021: Dougie Hamilton

The biggest fish from the summer of 2021, Hamilton signed a seven-year deal with the Devils at an AAV of $9 million. Hamilton earned that contract after posting a 65-point pace over his final two seasons with Carolina before becoming a free agent. Although some look at this signing favourably since he’s been productive with New Jersey in recent years, his debut campaign with the Devils was actually quite underwhelming as he posted a measly 40-point pace. That offensive decline is partially explained by injury as he missed time with a broken jaw, but it’s also worth noting that his share of power-play time was lower during that first year in NJ (53%) than it was during his final and most productive years with Carolina (66%). This highlights how unpredictable deployment can affect a player’s production when they join a new team. (july1)

[Follow the link for more…]

21. I just wanted to offer some more Draft thoughts. For anyone that missed it, last week I wrote about a handful of draftees (before the big night) including Ivan Demidov, Cole Eiserman, Mac Swanson, and more.

First off, my beloved Habs managed to draft Demidov. Needless to say, this is one of those draft picks that vastly turns around my view of this forward group. They had a very good, young top line, as well as a returning Kirby Dach and hopefuls like Joshua Roy and Owen Beck. However, they were missing that game breaker that would allow them to have two potent scoring lines, and Demidov should be exactly that. This is still a very young group that will need a couple years before turning into a serious playoff threat, but this is poised to be the most important draft pick the team has made since Carey Price.

In general, I thought Calgary made out very well. Getting Zayne Parekh at ninth is a tidy bit of business and Matvei Gridin took a jump in his draft year and is a nice boom-bust pick at the end of the first round. Getting Henry Mews in the third round is one of those picks that we could very well be looking back on in 5-6 years and wonder how he fell that far.

It sure seems as if the Anaheim Ducks have a type, yeah? Leo Carlsson last year, Beckett Sennecke this year (6’2″), and Stian Solberg 23^rd overall. This is a team that is building for size and aggressiveness, but they are certainly stockpiling top talent. This should be a fun team to watch grow over the next few seasons.

With Konsta Helenius going 14^th overall, it sure feels like the Buffalo Sabres got a couple long-term pieces in the last two drafts outside of the top-10 pick, having drafted Zach Benson 13^th overall last season. I don’t agree with the team’s buyout of Jeff Skinner, but there’s also not a team in the league that can boast the prospect pool they can. If this franchise is serious about pushing for a playoff spot in April of 2025, they should be active on the trading side of things throughout the offseason.

All of Cole Beaudoin, Liam Greentree, EJ Emery, and Sam O’Reilly going in the final 10 picks of the first round was interesting for me. If I were a betting man – and I am – I think there’s at least one future all-star in that group. Which one, well, I wish I were that good of a prognosticator, but those are four very talented players that all possess varying levels of high upside. (july2)

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Be sure to grab your copy of the 2024 Dobber Fantasy Hockey Prospects Report!

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Have a good week, folks!
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