Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

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1. We have now reached the slow portion of the NHL offseason and while there are still a few interesting players waiting to be signed – Alex Nylander and Oliver Kylington come to mind – and almost certainly a significant trade or two to come – looking at you, Martin Necas – the rosters that we have now are largely going to be the rosters we’re dealing with in September. As a final wrap on the transactions of the last couple weeks, I want to go over the teams that have changed my perception with their offseason shuffling. We could call them ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ but that’s a bit too simplistic. Rather, it’s just some thoughts on changes made, what it tells me about the improvements/declines that might come, and looking ahead to the 2024-25 season.

One last caveat: these are just preliminary thoughts. My own rankings won’t be ready for at least a couple months, so a lot will probably change between now and then. For more complete thoughts before then, pre-order your copy of the 2024 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide, which is set for release at the end of the month! (july12)

2. Boston Bruins

The two big additions Boston made were Elias Lindholm and Nikita Zadorov, which is kind of funny because my personal opinion is that they’re two of the more overrated players in offseason signing contention. However, the term ‘overrated’ doesn’t mean ‘bad’, it simply means not as proficient as their public perception.

Regardless, these are clearly upgrades for Boston. Zadorov effectively takes the roster spot of Matt Grzelcyk, and that’s a huge boost defensively for the team. Maybe they didn’t necessarily need to get better defensively, but if they’re not going to be a high-powered offence (they won’t), then tightening things up even more defensively is a good idea.

The same goes for Elias Lindholm. I don’t think he’s a high-end, first-line centre; I also think he’s an upgrade over using Pavel Zacha as the top-line centre, allows the team to use Charlie Coyle in a third-line role, and provides flexibility for how they want to use Matthew Poitras. This is a team that really was one of the best in the East and whether they are good enough to really surpass a team like Florida is fair to ask, but even while losing Jake DeBrusk and Linus Ullmark, they are better now than they were three months ago.

Boston’s offseason certainly is tremendous news for anyone with Jeremy Swayman in dynasty leagues. Ullmark is gone and this should be a top-5 defensive team in the league. Imagine Swayman’s ratio stats but with 55 starts instead of ~40. (july12)

3. Nashville Predators

Perhaps no team did more to shake up the roster than Nashville. They shipped out Ryan McDonagh, added Brady Skjei in his place, and shored up a second scoring line by signing Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault. If there was one Achilles heel for this team in 2023-24 – something that kept them from being among the upper-echelon of the West – it was a lack of depth scoring. They have that now, and may even have a productive third line when looking at names like Luke Evangelista, Cody Glass, and Philip Tomasino. I am not ready to say they’re in the Colorado/Dallas/Edmonton tier of teams yet, but they’re certainly above the mushy middle of teams like Minnesota and St. Louis.

The real question for me is how good this team will be defensively. Neither Stamkos nor Marchessault are defensive stalwarts, guys like Glass and Evangelista aren’t that yet, and Skjei is a mixed bag, at best. In 2023-24, Juuse Saros had the worst save percentage of his career. If this team declines even just a bit defensively, from a fringe top-10 team to the middle of the league, it’ll make Saros’s rebound season a little bit of a higher hill to climb. (july12)

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4. Just want to give a shout out to the CapFriendly team for all their work over the last decade. The site went dark yesterday after being bought by the Washington Capitals. It was such an invaluable resource for all of us here at Dobber Hockey that it’s one of those things you don’t notice how much you rely on it until it’s gone. Thank you for all the efforts of the group over the years, and good luck to them in their new chapter with the Capitals. (july11)

5. There will be others that fill the space left by CapFriendly, and once the technology has been created once and the need has been established, it will take any replacement site much less time to fill the void than its predecessor did. I’m currently getting used to the PuckPedia site, and it seems like they’re working hard to make all the upgrades people are requesting. 

As another option, I know Eric Daoust and Dobber are working hard behind the scenes to sort out where Frozentools can pull the salary cap data from, as it also has cap hit, AAV, and salary listed for the remaining length of each player’s contract. On top of that it’s the best site for player data.

I’m also very curious to see what this web infrastructure and personnel expertise is worth to an NHL team once the sale details are released. (july10)

6. In Tuesday’s Ramblings, there were a number of smaller signings discussed and one of them was Flyers defenceman Egor Zamula. At the time, I said that he was one of the more interesting deep-ish defence targets that caught my eye. That was until Tuesday, anyway, when the Florida Panthers announced they were signing Adam Boqvist to a one-year contract. A handful of injuries limited Boqvist to just 35 games in 2023-24 where he totaled 10 points. Boqvist turns 24 years old later this summer and has 209 regular season games across five seasons to his name.

Boqvist is one of those players that has long been interesting to me because of what he does on the ice. His 85 points in 209 games might not scream ‘big point producer’ but he’s done that skating 17:26 per game. His 1.38 points per 60 minutes of total game time over his five seasons is a 78^th percentile mark in the league (minimum of 3000 minutes) and higher than names like Jared Spurgeon, Noah Hanifin, and Seth Jones. It isn’t just power play production, either, as his 1.07 points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 over his career is an 81^st percentile mark, and higher than names like Josh Morrissey, Miro Heiskanen, and Torey Krug. He has just been a very good (not great) point producer.

However, Boqvist is now going to be on his third team in six seasons by his age-24 campaign. The reason for that is his defence has been horrific, and NHL coaches just will not put up with awful defensive play without superlative offensive performance; just being very good isn’t enough. (july11)

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7. I was looking over the Anaheim Ducks roster, and this seems like a giant headache for fantasy purposes, right? For returning players, we have Troy Terry, Alex Killorn, Ryan Strome, Frank Vatrano, Mason McTavish, and Leo Carlsson. It seems like Cutter Gauthier is on the roster in October, too, while they also traded for Robby Fabbri. That makes eight forwards precluding any further signings or trades, or any prospects, that could all slot into the top three lines. That could be the difference between playing 15:30 a night with secondary power play time or 18 minutes a night with top power play time.

We will do our best to sort this out in the 2024 Dobber Hockey Draft Guide (available for pre-order now), and my guess is that at least Terry and Carlsson will get the meat of the minutes, but this does seem a headache elsewhere. It isn’t hard to see Zegras getting 16 minutes a night if he doesn’t bounce back well, or 18 minutes a night if he does. Maybe they stuff Gauthier on the third line with McTavish to try and hide them a bit from tougher competition, or maybe Gauthier is a Rookie of the Year candidate (non-Michkov/Celebrini category) and he goes right to the top-6 with a premiere PP role. Let’s wait to see where ADPs fall, but for a team on the rise, there may not be as much consistent fantasy value as we’d like. (july11)

8. One of the few remaining RFAs to sign is Dawson Mercer. Not that there should be a problem getting him at least a two-year bridge deal, but it just reminded me how far he is from having real fantasy impact. All of Timo Meier, Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, and Nico Hischier are signed for at least three more seasons, and the first three names are signed through to 2030 or beyond. If Mercer really wants to maximize his earnings, is he in the right spot to do it? He will not be earning consistent top power play minutes anytime soon, especially if New Jersey decides to use Ondrej Palat as a sometimes-replacement. That also precludes any other additions or prospects to come. Would Mercer ever ask for a trade? It’s just me thinking out loud, but something I’ll keep an eye on this summer (and for the next couple offseasons). (july11)

9. We may have a Sidney Crosby extension announced very soon. With his next contract, Crosby would have a chance to pass Nicklas Lindstrom for the most games played with one single franchise (he’s about four seasons back of that title). He’s also chasing down Mario Lemieux’s franchise record for points. Even now we can say that him and Mario are the best Penguins ever, and Crosby has been one of the biggest cornerstones for a single franchise ever. The record would just add the cherry on top. (july10)

10. From reading what Rob Rossi and Elliotte Friedman have been saying, it sounds like the Crosby extension might be a three-year deal around a $10M cap hit. With the rising cap giving a bit more space, I wonder if it's three years at $10.87 million.

Kyle Dubas did work the "93" into Marner's cap hit (before the base salary was forced up and changed his final cap hit number), and Dubas was also Lou Lamoriello's right-hand man when Auston Matthews got his "34" into his cap hit too.

Crosby deserves whatever the Penguins can afford to pay him, and more. He's coming off a 94-point season, and his sixth straight season pacing for over 90 points. At this rate, there's no reason he can't keep up his point-per-game ways until he's 40. (july10)

11. On the topic of contracts, there are still some UFAs, and a handful of top RFAs left, but I don’t think there will be many surprises left in those groups. Looking at the players who filed for arbitration last week is where we might still find some intrigue.

Last year there were 22 who filed, with only three of them actually going the full length through to the arbitration award. Two of those three were goalies, which doesn’t bode as well for Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen owners hoping for a quick resolution this year. On the positive side of things, both goalies last year received about $3.5 million on their one-year arbitration awards, and had more experience and better percentage numbers than what UPL put up this past season. If UPL is angling for more than $3.5M through arbitration, he’s going to have a tough time fighting for it.

It might be better for UPL to sign longer term now, but the Sabres might not necessarily want to go that many years with him, as they also have Devon Levi who is the real gem of the pipeline. With Levi likely being primed to take over a full-time volume starter role in a few years, the Sabres won’t want to have a $5 million AAV tied up in UPL all the way to 2030 or beyond. It does seem like arbitration to kick the can down the road might be the most likely outcome here. (july10)

12. J.J. Moser and Spencer Stastney seem like two of the other names on this year's list most likely to get to arbitration, as their rosters are crowded, and the teams are facing some cap pressure. Moser will be an especially interesting case, as he was just traded for, so he won’t have a great rapport with the team yet. Tough way to start, move in and have your new team tell you how you’re not worth much. (july10)

13. The Utah Coyotes Whatevers signed Barrett Hayton to a two-year deal worth $2.65 million per season. Hayton struggled last year with injuries, but even then, someone who plays with Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz as their most common linemate should have more than 10 points in 33 games.

Hayton is right at this breakout threshold, and hopefully has had a healthy summer to train and be ready. His underlying numbers are a little concerning, especially the low IPP, but some of that is also due to luck, as well as trying to keep up with vastly superior linemates. A jump back to a 45-point pace would be excellent for him and shouldn’t be surprising at all.

One strange note with Hayton, is that after being a player who provided a hit per game the first few years of his career, he dropped off to one hit every two games this past season. The full view doesn’t tell the full story though, as there were only six hits in his first 25 games, with the other 11 coming in his final eight – which is also the eight games where four of his 10 points came from. To me that says that he was playing through injuries that were hindering his performance – and especially his physical impact – but then started to feel better by the end of the year. If he comes back healthy, there’s no reason he points shouldn’t pick back up, and the underlying hint will be the hit numbers. (july10)

14. As mentioned further above, there were a handful of signings that are worth noting for those in deeper types of fantasy leagues and we checked them out in Tuesday's  Ramblings : Zamula and a few others like Jack Roslovic, Eeli Tolvanen and Artyom Levshunov.

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Regarding Eeli Tolvanen: They are different players, but it’s not hard to see Tolvanen and Roslovic managing similar offensive outputs in 2024-25 – somewhere around the 15- to 20-goal marks with 40-or-so points. Of course, the big difference is that Tolvanen managed over 200 hits last season and has averaged well over two hits per game across the last three seasons. That is what makes him perennially valuable in banger fantasy hockey formats.

It will be very interesting to see how Seattle’s offence will change under new head coach Dan Bylsma. Since their inception, two things that really limited the fantasy upside of some of the Kraken’s key forwards – outside of not having any bona fide superstars – was their usage. In 2023-24, Alex Wennberg was the only forward to average over 18 minutes a game, just as he was the only to do so in 2022-23. Players can have solid fantasy value skating 17-18 minutes a night, but to really ascend to the next level, they need elite top-line forwards (which they don’t) or heavy amounts of ice time (which is TBD).

The second issue was the power play. They often split across two units as they did not have a single forward reach at least 55% of the team’s power play time in either of the last two seasons, per Frozen Tools. This is a team that doesn’t draw a lot of penalties to begin with, and that kind of usage puts an upper limit of about 2:45 per game in PPTOI on the table. There were over 90 forwards across the league to skate more than that on a per-game basis in 2023-24. (july9)

15. A few of the top 2024 picks have signed their entry-level deals, and Artyom Levshunov is one of them. I won’t go long here because I don’t think that he has much fantasy relevance for 2024-25, but it’s worth noting that Tyler Bertuzzi, Seth Jones, and Alex Vlasic are the only players the team has signed for 2027-28 or beyond. That season would be the first year of RFA status for Levshunov, should he get enough NHL games in during the 2024-25 season. In other words, there really isn’t much for cap implications that would prevent the team from giving Levshunov a real run in the NHL this coming campaign, though he’ll have to prove himself, of course, before that happens.

Might we see the same in Anaheim with guys like Beckett Sennecke and Stian Solberg? They only have Troy Terry with a commitment in the 2027-28 season. I suppose we’ll find out soon enough. (july9)

16. After a busy week of transactions in the NHL, Sunday’s calm gave us a chance to catch our breath and collect our thoughts. With this opportunity, I thought it’d be worthwhile to evaluate how certain players have seen their fantasy outlooks upgraded/downgraded after signing with new teams. Here are my thoughts on a few players:

Sean Monahan – Upgrade
From Montreal/Winnipeg to Columbus

The way I see it, Columbus courted Monahan in an attempt to rejuvenate Johnny Gaudreau. It’s no coincidence that Monahan signed for five years, when that’s exact amount of time Gaudreau has remaining on his contract. We often forget because of all the injuries Monahan battled during his final years in Calgary, but he and Monahan formed a lethal duo for the Flames. Between 2017 and 2019, Gaudreau ranked 11^th in the league with 1.13 points per game and Monahan wasn’t too far behind, sitting 30^th with 0.96 points per game. That’s the kind of magic that Columbus is trying to recreate, and I’d be very surprised if Monahan and Gaudreau don’t start the upcoming season together.

With Monahan likely to fill a top-six center slot, I imagine Boone Jenner will drop to the third line, into a role that better matches his defensively skewed skillset. Returning our focus to the purpose of this article – has Monahan’s fantasy outlook improved since signing with the Blue Jackets? My answer would be yes. Sure, he found himself in favourable situations last year, seeing prominent scoring minutes in both Montreal and Winnipeg, but reuniting with Gaudreau – a player he’s shown great chemistry with – could help him produce even more going forward. Although Columbus has a good amount of young talent knocking on the door, I’d expect them to give Monahan a significant opportunity based on the magnitude of his new contract and his potential to save the team’s biggest investment.  (july8)

17. Brandon Montour – Downgrade
From Florida to Seattle

On the surface, it’s clear to see why Montour’s fantasy value took a hit after he moved from Florida to Seattle. He went from the clear-cut top power-play defenseman on an elite Florida team, where he was frequently exposed to superstar forwards, to a Kraken team that currently lacks high-end offensive ability – underscored by the team ranking bottom-five in goals per game last season. It also doesn’t help that the Kraken have split time relatively evenly between two power-play units in the past, and that Vince Dunn has proven himself as a capable power-play quarterback. For reference, Dunn led the team in power-play share last year and he sat at just 58%. Montour was above 70% in each of the past two seasons with Florida.

To sum up, Montour’s fantasy value is lower than last year because his new situation seems like it will feature less power-play opportunity, less exposure to high-end talent, and more competition for offensive deployment. All this being said, I think it’s important to note that Montour had shoulder surgery last summer and recovery from that procedure caused him to start the year late. I don’t think it’s far-fetched to say that the freshness of the surgery may have impacted his play last year. Feeling 100% might allow him to find the scoresheet more often than last year, even though he’s facing less favourable circumstances.  (july8)

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18. Macklin Celebrini has signed his three-year, entry-level contract with the Sharks. As you probably know by now, Celebrini was the first overall pick in the recent 2024 entry draft.

I’ve already seen questions about where to rank Celebrini. Well, you have an answer already, as he was included in Dobber’s Top 300 Keeper League Skaters. Keep in mind that this is keeper value beyond this coming season, and for points-only leagues.

It seems like Celebrini will be playing in San Jose this coming season. As a freshman, he dominated the NCAA, winning the Hobey Baker while recording 64 points (32 G – 32 A) in just 38 games for Boston University. That was good for third in NCAA scoring, behind future Sharks teammate Will Smith and future Duck rival Cutter Gauthier. With Smith signing his own entry-level contact earlier this offseason, and Gauthier already playing his first NHL game at the end of the 2023-24 season, these three could be in the preliminary discussion for the Calder Trophy. (july7)

19. As far as Celebrini’s single-season value goes, it’s very difficult to project rookies. I won’t add him to the Top 100 Roto Rankings (yet), but he will get there at some point. As precedence, I did not have Connor Bedard in the Roto Rankings until early last season, when injuries started to open up some spaces.

I also had a somewhat conservative estimate for Bedard of 60 points, so I’d guess something a bit lower for Celebrini – maybe around 55 points. They're both first overall picks with high expectations playing for teams in the middle of a rebuild that will likely need a few more seasons before they are a legitimate playoff threat.

The only Shark to eclipse 50 points last season was Mikael Granlund, which demonstrates how bare the cupboard was last season. However, Tyler Toffoli has been signed to give Celebrini and/or Granlund a potential scoring winger, which could really boost their point totals. Although Celebrini and Smith should give the Sharks a crazy good 1-2 punch in the future, they are probably too young to be leaned on as the 1-2 centers for the Sharks in 2024-25, given all of the demands of the position. (july7)

20. This is a great time to mention that the Fantasy Hockey Guide will be available on July 29. Everything that you’ve come to know and love about the guide is included again this season – its 19^th year. Preorder yours today!

One of the sections I have been working on is hits. A few years ago, we made the shift from a section on penalty minutes leaders for each team to a section on hits. More leagues seem to be using hits instead of penalty minutes, as there’s debate as to whether a stat that hurts a real-life team should help a fantasy team.

Today I’ll bring up some hits leaders, not only for the hits stat alone but also when combined with other peripheral stats. In Frozen Tools, you can find these stats using the Multi-Category option under Peripherals (click More Stats when you land on the main stats page). As well, I’ll flip the script and look for the “hitless wonders.” In other words, those players who can bring the scoring but don’t crack an egg when they skate into the boards.

Michael Pezzetta

The Canadiens forward registered 242 hits, which was good for 10^th in the league. Yet what I’d like to turn your attention to is his hits per 60 total, which at 30.5 is the highest among players that have played at least 20 games. Pezzetta played in just 61 games while averaging under eight minutes of icetime per game. If he can find a way to secure a greater role in the Habs lineup, then he could be dominating this category very soon. Over three seasons, Pezzetta has a career high of 15 points, so like Lauzon he won’t score much either. (july13)

21. Matt Rempe

One player who had a higher hits/60 than Pezzetta, although in just 17 games, is Matt Rempe. The tall (6-7) Ranger averaged 31.4 hits/60, registering 50 hits while logging just under six minutes per game. As brief as his time in the NHL has been, Rempe has made himself well-known. It sounds like the Rangers want to work with him to improve his overall game, which could mean that the Rangers have a dominant force on their hands if he can improve significantly.

Rempe has accumulated 71 penalty minutes in just 17 career games. The fact that he is training to be a better fighter could lead to some massive penalty minute totals this coming season. (july13)

Brady Tkachuk

There’s a reason that Tkachuk is drafted so high in bangers and other multicategory leagues. The younger Tkachuk brother led the league in the combined shots, hits, and blocks category (696 SOG+HIT+BLK). That number is mainly hits (294) and shots (357). Some players among the shots leaders provide over 100 hits, but Tkachuk is that unicorn that is top five in the league in both shots and hits. (july13)

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Be sure to also grab your copy of the 2024 Dobber Fantasy Hockey Prospects Report!

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Have a good week, folks!

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