Ramblings: Byfield’s Extension; Looking for Undervalued Options in Fantasy Drafts – July 16

Michael Clifford

2024-07-16

Quinton Byfield has signed a five-year extension with Los Angeles, totalling $31.25M over those seasons. The $6.25M cap hit makes it very palatable for cap league purposes as he's just starting to scratch the surface of what he can produce in the fantasy game. It would not be the least bit shocking to see a 35-goal, 70-point, 180-shot, 80-hit season from him in 2024-25 and that is just fine for what he's earning.

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Work on the 2024-25 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide is underway and now that we're in the thick of the offseason, it's time to start move away from the 2023-24 campaign, the draft, and free agency. I want to use today's Ramblings to take educated guesses at some players that could be undervalued as we head into draft season. I have had a few people ask for sleepers because their drafts are sometime in July so before I do any work actually preparing for the upcoming season, let's do exactly that.

I haven't started any work actually preparing my rankings in various formats, so this is all off the top of my head. I am going to also use a basic multi-cat setup of goals, assists, shots, power play points, hits, and blocks as parameters. I am also going to separate this into two Ramblings, one for today and one for Thursday: guys that can break out with top power play time, and then a list of guys that are unlikely to get top PP time but can still reach another level fantasy-wise. Data from Natural Stat Trick and Frozen Tools.

JJ Peterka

Back in 2022-23, the entire line of Jack Quinn, Dylan Cozens, and JJ Peterka were standouts as part of the young Buffalo Sabres core. They were lax defensively, but they were able to create very well offensively, and scored 2.8 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, which is good-not-great.

Things fell apart in 2023-24 as Quinn was injured most of the season and Cozens's production fell off a cliff. Peterka's didn't, though, and he finished with 25 even strength goals, leading the Sabres and tallying as many as Sam Reinhart and Brady Tkachuk. Importantly, Peterka was second among Buffalo forwards by share of power play time post-Trade Deadline, trailing only Alex Tuch. There is a new coach in town with Lindy Ruff taking over for Don Granato, but buying out Jeff Skinner has removed one stumbling block for Peterka's top power play time.

Peterka added nearly three full shots per 60 minutes of ice time between his first and second seasons, is staring down the barrel of top power play time, and could easily be second among the team's wingers by ice time per game. He won't bring a lot in hits or blocks, but he can very much threaten 250 shots and 20 power play points which, added to another jump in production, would make a very successful fantasy option that may not carry a high ADP.

Cole Perfetti

Much like Buffalo, there is a new coach in Winnipeg and that can only help Perfetti's upside. That he was a healthy scratch down the stretch and into the playoffs is the absolute worst place for a young player to be.

It also isn't as if he wasn't productive. At 5-on-5, his primary points per 60 minutes (goals and first assists) was 1.81, or higher than Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, and Nino Niederreiter, to name a few. He also finished with more high-danger shot attempts per 60 minutes (4.0) than Connor (3.9). The funny part is that after the Trade Deadline, the team outscored the opposition with Perfetti on the ice 9-6 at 5-on-5, giving him a higher on-ice goal share (60%) than each of Niederreiter, Connor, Scheifele, and Gabriel Vilardi. In that stretch, he also led the team in total points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. It really is something.

The one stumbling block for Perfetti is Nikolaj Ehlers, as he's likely to take top power play minutes over his younger teammate. I do feel like Charlie Brown with the football right now, though, as fantasy hockey owners have been itching to see Ehlers get back to 18-19 minutes a game. However, he has one year left on his current deal and may not be in the lineup for Game 1 of the regular season. Perfetti stands to benefit from both a new coach and a bigger role. The kid is very good, he just needs the decision-makers to believe in him.

Kirill Marchenko

When we look at the Columbus roster, there are a number of players that could take top power play time. Johnny Gaudreau, Boone Jenner, Adam Fantilli, Patrik Laine, Sean Monahan, and Yegor Chinakhov are at the top of the list, to start. There is also a new coach that is going to be hired eventually.

Down the stretch last season, Marchenko was fourth among Columbus forwards by share of power play time per game, but one of the names ahead of him was Alex Nylander and he's now gone. If we assume Monahan takes Nylander's role, and the other two forwards are Gaudreau and Jenner, the one big roadblock for Marchenko getting top power play time is Laine. However, there are reports he has asked for a trade, so we could very well see Marchenko on the top power play unit in October. There is still Fantilli to contend with, but that feels like something that happens a month or two into the season rather than right away.

Maybe it's just wishful thinking on my part, but Marchenko is a scoring winger and if Laine is traded, the team is very short on those (depending on where they slot Fantilli). He brings a skill set few (or no) other forwards on the roster brings, and after averaging 26 goals every 82 games to start his career, this looks like a 30-goal season in the making. He could even push over 200 shots and towards 70 hits with a bit more ice time, so this is a guy I'll be interested in when drafts roll around this September.

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Logan Cooley

If I had to guess right now, Arizona's top four power play forwards will be Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz, Dylan Guenther, and Cooley. The reason Cooley gets the nod over other options is that he's a left-handed centre, which would give them one left shot and one right shot (Schmaltz) that can take power play face offs. Barrett Hayton is a possibility, sure, but it seems he's lost some favour with the coaching staff, which is possibly due to injury, so he can win it back. There is also Alex Kerfoot, but I really don't think Kerfoot's offensive upside is near enough for a team that wants to see an improved power play in 2024-25.

After the Trade Deadline last season, it was Kerfoot on the top power play unit. Funny enough, the second PP unit with Cooley (9.6 goals per 60 minutes) greatly outperformed the top PP unit with Kerfoot (7.0 goals per 60 minutes). This is a team that needs to improve their special teams to really take a step forward and has the talent to improve on their mid-level power play. That includes moving Cooley up, especially with how well he and Guenther played together after Guenther's recall.

MacKenzie Weegar

This is a weird one because aside from potential power play production, this player possesses prolific peripheral prowess. Regardless of his special team role, he'll soar past 100 blocks and can push towards 200 hits while adding two shots (or more) per game. That, alone, will make him a coveted fantasy selection.

The worry for Calgary's power play – aside from talent – is that they could make several changes on the blue line throughout the season. It would not be the least bit shocking to see each of Weegar, Daniil Miromanov, and Rasmus Andersson take turns running the top PP unit. Hell, there are probably going to be weeks where all three take turns as the PPQB. That is going to be annoying, but my personal belief is that Weegar is the best puck mover on the team's blue line, and that talent wins out. Ergo, I think Weegar wins out.

Weegar's potential role matters a lot. He seems a lock to be a top-25 defenceman in any multi-cat format, but a consistent top PP role could see him be a legitimate threat to be a top-5 defenceman.

Luke Hughes

Hughes isn't necessarily a sleeper – too many people are too high on him – but I wonder if he's being underrated despite how highly people think of him. We just need to look to the 2022-23 season where Dougie Hamilton skated under 22 minutes a game for New Jersey, he managed just 86 blocks (Hughes had 55 as a rookie), and yet he led standard Yahoo! points formats thanks to great power play production and high shot totals. I don't think Hughes reaches 22 goals or 275 shots, but he can reach 15 goals and 200 shots, and that, along with the plethora of assists he should bring, means a top-15 defenceman at the least. I think he's the next defenceman to really push himself into the elite tier of blue line producers, and he's in a great situation to do exactly that. We'll see where ADPs land, but I can very much see him ending the 2024-25 campaign as a top-20 defenceman in virtually all formats.

Joseph Woll

Goalies are weird and maybe Toronto doesn't want to give Woll 55-60 starts a season after he missed significant time due to injury. All the same, neither Anthony Stolarz nor Matt Murray are significant roadblocks to being, at the least, the 1A starter in a 1A/1B situation, so as long as Woll doesn't fall on his face out of the gate, he should have the cage out of the gate. Whatever we think of the Leafs, they were, at worst, a mid-level defensive team last season, they don't usually take a lot of penalties, and they bolstered their blue line in the offseason. I think there's a real chance they're both at top-10 team by both goals for and goals against in 2024-25, and that is a great situation for Woll.

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Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
PATRIK LAINE MTL
DYLAN GUENTHER UTA
BRYAN RUST PIT
ROSS COLTON COL

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
MATT MURRAY TOR
CHARLIE LINDGREN WSH
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN
SCOTT WEDGEWOOD COL

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency EDM Players
23.1 CONNOR MCDAVID ZACH HYMAN LEON DRAISAITL
11.4 RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS CONNOR MCDAVID ZACH HYMAN
10.8 ADAM HENRIQUE CONNOR BROWN VIKTOR ARVIDSSON

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