With the playoffs over, it's time for a poll I like to run this time every year. The gist is you vote on whether players whose production in the playoffs differed – in a good or bad way – from their 2023-24 regular season scoring rate, are going to score in 2024-25 at a rate closer to what they did in the playoffs. In essence, you're deciding whether we should believe more in what we saw in the shorter time frame of the playoffs, rather than the entirety of the regular season.

Beyond the fact that we're looking at a smaller sample size, during the playoffs teams will often depart from normal approaches to ice time and the like because of the higher stakes involved. Nevertheless, I still think this can be a useful poll to run, since at worst it will better alert us to players whose production did differ in the playoffs versus the regular season.

To reiterate, you want to vote for any and all players whose scoring rate in the playoffs, you believe, will be closer to how they ultimately produce in the 2024-25 regular season, versus how they produced during the 2023-24 regular season. The key is in both cases we're looking at scoring rate, namely their point per game pace multiplied by 82 games, as not only does that allow for missed regular season games, but it is also necessary because no one played over 25 games during the 2024 playoffs.

Here are two examples. Suppose that "Skater A" scored at a 73-point pace in the regular season and a 54-point pace in the playoffs. The midpoint is 63.5 points; if you think he will score at a 63 or lower pace, i.e., closer to his comparatively lower playoff pace, then he should get your vote. If, instead, you think he'll meet or exceed a 64-point pace, then he would not get your vote. In contrast, "Skater B" did better in the playoffs – let's say a 62-point pace versus a pace of 41 in the regular season. The midpoint is 51.5, which means he would get your vote if you believe he'll score at a 52 or higher scoring pace in the 2023-24 regular season, while you would not vote for him if, instead, you believe he'll score at a rate of 51 or less. Here is last year's poll for reference as well.

The 20 voting choices are listed below in alphabetical order with their 2023-24 regular season scoring pace, their 2024 playoff scoring pace, and the midpoint between the two. If a player's midpoint is a round number, treat it as being closer to his playoff rate. A link to cast votes will appear at the end of the column. But before getting to the names, I wanted to point out that far more players than usual scored at a very similar rate in the playoffs as in the regular season. As such, the difference in scoring rates for some of the choices is less wide than normal.

Aleksander Barkov (90-points regular season pace, 75-points playoff pace, 82.5-points midpoint)

This marked the third playoffs in a row where Barkov's production rate was less than it was in the regular season. I think it's a function of him not being a glory hound and trying to be more of an all-around player when it matters most, at the expense of points. But once the following season has rolled around, he's always seen his scoring rise back to expected levels. although there are no sure things in fantasy, this pattern might be pretty close.

Sam Bennett (49-points regular season pace, 60-points playoff pace, 55.5-points midpoint)

For the second season in a row, Bennett produced better in the playoffs by nearly the same scoring rate differential each time. But unlike in 2022-23, it was not as a result of lots more ice time. Instead, he seems to be more of a big game player, plus his sandpaper style is less likely to draw penalties in the playoffs, so that may help explain it. We'll see though if he can parlay this playoff performance into better 2024-25 numbers, or he slides back into familiar territory.

Filip Forsberg (94-points regular season pace, 82-points playoff pace, 88-points midpoint)

Just when poolies had written off Forsberg's 2021-22 production as a UFA push, he had his best point total ever, fat wallet notwithstanding. Although Nashville brought in a lot more firepower, making it so Forsberg will be arguably less of a go to guy than he has been, the net benefit of increased scoring as a team should enable him to replicate his 2023-24 success, rather than his comparatively lower playoff output.

Noah Hanifin (47-points regular season pace, 58-points playoff pace, 52.5-points midpoint)

Vegas paid a hefty price to get and re-sign Hanifin; and if the playoffs are any indication, they see him as "the guy" in terms of their blueline. Still, Shea Theodore is signed for another year, and Alex Pietrangelo looms. But one has to figure that Theodore will be moved, and Pietrangelo had only one productive season out of the last four. It could well be Hanifin's playoff output is a sign of things to come.

Chris Kreider (75-points regular season pace, 61-points playoff pace, 68-points midpoint)

Fun fact – in his 11 seasons since becoming an NHL regular, Kreider has never even once scored at a pace between 60 and 74 points. Instead, it's been two seasons above, the rest below. Yes, the two higher output campaigns have come within the last three; but sandwiched in between was yet another campaign that saw his scoring pace fall under 60. Kreider not only is 33 years old, but plays a rough and tumble style that has led to players starting to break down and/or produce less at ages even younger than he is.

Alexis Lafreniere (57-points regular season pace, 71-points playoff pace, 64-points midpoint)

From one Ranger possibly headed for a downswing in Kreider, to another, in Laffy, who took great strides to show not only wasn't he a bust, but he may be on the verge of thriving. Still, a path for him to PP1 is not realistic to envision for at least the time being, and he ignited when placed on a line with Artemi Panarin (spoiler alert – more on him below), who could leave as a UFA after this season. But for 2024-25, he could still see some modest gains.

Anders Lee (37-points regular season pace, 65-points playoff pace, 51-points midpoint)

After a disaster of a regular season, Lee looked more like his old self in the playoffs. But being that he's 34 and plays a rough and tumble style as well, his regular season struggles might be the new normal. Or perhaps not, especially since the Islanders did not land any players who figure to push him down the depth chart.

Nathan MacKinnon (140-points regular season pace, 104-points playoff pace, 122-midpoint)

It's pretty amazing when a 104-point pace could be considered a disappointment; yet after a Hart Trophy winning regular season, MacKinnon was merely superb in the playoffs. And he did eclipse his previous career regular season best rate by a wide margin during 2023-24, so perhaps a point total closer to what we saw in the playoffs is more realistic.

J.T. Miller (104 points regular season pace, 88 points playoff pace, 96 points midpoint)

As great as Miller looked in 2023-24, he has two things in common with Kreider, in that he too has yet to put together two superb seasons in a row and is a rough and tumble player, although at age 31 one would think Miller could still produce well for a few more years. Then again, some have broken down even earlier. Plus, Elias Pettersson remains the future of the franchise, so if Miller doesn't live up to lofty expectations, he could be at least somewhat deemphasized.

Artemi Panarin (120-points regular season pace, 77-points playoff pace, 98.5-points midpoint)

Much has been made of the playoff shortcomings of Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner; but consider that Panarin, who has scored at a 105+ point pace in three of the past four regular seasons, has scoring paces of 77, 23, 66, and 55 in the past four playoffs. But inasmuch as he always seems to bounce back come the next regular season, it seems like for whatever reason he's just snakebit during the playoffs.

Brayden Point (91-points regular season pace, 82-points playoff pace, 86.5-points midpoint)

For the past few seasons, Point has been the primary beneficiary of Nikita Kucherov's superb skill and playmaking. But that was when Brandon Hagel was the third member of the Tampa top line. Although Hagel is certainly no slouch, Jake Guentzel will bring far more to the table, and could well syphon points away from Point. Then again, Steven Stamkos is also gone, who was a PPPt magnet, and Point might stand to make gains there. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds.

Sam Reinhart (94-points regular season pace, 54-points playoff pace, 74-points midpoint)

Was the Reinhart we saw in 2023-24 the real deal, or someone trying to pad his UFA wallet? He did ultimately re-sign with Florida, but his scoring paces for his three seasons with the team now stand at 86, 67 and 94. And with plenty of talent around him to grab points, he might indeed be poised for a downswing.

Jason Robertson (80-points regular season pace, 69-points playoff pace, 75.5-points midpoint)

Many were willing to look past the 2023-24 regular season as a stutter step in JRob's ascent to fantasy greatness. But then he did even worse in the playoffs than in the regular season, where he didn't even reach the point per game mark. There's also the reality that JRob does not get the kind of TOI, at even strength or with the man advantage, which most who are do what he did in 2022-23 would receive. Maybe he will be a one hit wonder, and his scoring will drop further in 2024-25?

Tyler Seguin (63-points regular season pace, 55-points playoff pace, 59-points midpoint)

Although he turned 32 during the season, 2023-24 was Seguin's best in terms of scoring in five campaigns. And he did so despite his lowest ice time of the five. It might be that for the veteran less is somehow more. Plus, with Matt Duchene returning, the line or him, Seguin, and Mason Marchment that led to Seguin's 2023-24 success can remain intact.

Brady Skjei (47-points regular season pace, 67-points playoff pace, 57-points midpoint)

Many thought Skjei would parlay his success in Carolina to try and land a gig where he could be a "the guy" type of d-man. That sure as heck is not happening in Nashville as long as Roman Josi is in the mix. Still, the team as a whole should score a lot more, and Skjei likely will get plenty of ice time, even if not on PP1, to be able to benefit.

Steven Stamkos (84-points regular season pace, 98-points playoff pace, 91-points midpoint)

On the one hand, Stamkos had been separated from Nikita Kucherov at even strength for a few seasons, so he figures to get a nice upgrade at 5×5 on the Preds. But this is someone for whom the PP led to nearly half his points in the 2023-24 regular season, and all due respect to the rest of the Preds, none of them will be mistaken for Kucherov when it comes to the man advantage, so Stamkos could see a drop in scoring despite looking better in the playoffs.

Andrei Svechnikov (72-points regular season pace, 82-points playoff pace, 77-points midpoint)

Always thought to hold huge promise, Svech has yet to meet lofty expectations. But in fairness, he is only 24 years old and managed to score at a 70+ point rate in four of the last five seasons despite cumulatively averaging under 17:30 of TOI per game. The past two seasons he even saw his PP time drop; however, with the exodus of Teuvo Teravainen and Jake Guentzel, Svech will likely be leaned on quite a bit more.

Matthew Tkachuk (90-points regular season pace, 75-points playoff pace, 82.5-points midpoint)

After a disappointing regular season, Tkachuk fared even worse in the playoffs. But like Barkov, he seemingly adjusted his game to play a less wide-open style. Also, his 2023-24 regular season stats look worse than they were since he started with just 18 points in his first 22 games. He seems like a good bet to bounce back.

Tom Wilson (39-points regular season pace, 61-points playoff pace, 50-points midpoint)

Despite better than normal TOI on the PP and at ES in the 2023-24 regular season, Wilson had easily his worst campaign from a scoring standpoint since he became a top-six fixture. Was the playoff a glimpse of a return to his old form, or has he already fallen victim to the "rough and tumble" slowdown I fear could happen to Kreider, Lee and/or Miller?

Mika Zibanejad (73-points regular season pace, 82-points playoff pace, 77.5-points midpoint)

With no threat to his spots in the top six and on PP1, there should be nothing standing in the way of Zibs doing well. Yet he can't seem to string together great seasons. But if his recent pattern of one excellent season, followed by two merely very good seasons, repeats itself, he should be due for a spike in production for 2024-25.

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Again, you should vote for any and all players you believe – for better or worse – will have a 2024-25 regular season scoring rate that ends up closer to their rate from the 2024 playoffs than their 2023-24 regular season rate. To cast your votes, click here.

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Questions for Mailbag Column

Good news – I've already received enough questions for a two-part mailbag, with the first part appearing next week and the second the week after.  But because of that I can fit in even more questions, so keep yours coming. To get your questions to me, private message "rizzeedizzee" via the DobberHockey Forums or email [email protected] with "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line.