The Top 100 Roto Rankings have been updated for July following the free agent signings. We're finally getting an idea of how rosters are shaping up for the upcoming season. As always, you can leave your feedback on the rankings to help make them more accurate for everyone.

I'll take the time to evaluate a few players that I recently received comments on or have had some additional thoughts on recently.

Mitch Marner

Marner's draft value might vary more so this season than other seasons. So far, the trade rumors haven't led to anything, although we still have two months before many single-season fantasy drafts go in full force. The comment (if I understand correctly) was that Marner was too high at #40, which I'll try to address.

In one recent multicategory mock draft involving some friends of the site, I noticed Marner drafted at #20. I believe that's too high, and here's why. In pure scoring leagues, I think that number makes more sense. However, Marner is an assist-heavy point producer who has topped out at 35 goals two seasons ago. He has only eclipsed 200 shots in two of his eight seasons, and he is generally light on hits having never reached 100 hits.

Here's why I won't likely move Marner down any further. You can count on him for points, and should be able to no matter where he plays. Even though Marner has never reached 100 points in a season, he has produced at a 100-point pace in each of his past four seasons. He has missed at least 10 games in two of those seasons, while another was the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season. On top of that, Marner has been good for at least 25 power-play points in each of his last three seasons. No anti-Leaf bias from me – Marner should be considered a reliable option.

Tim Stutzle

I thought the fantasy community was a bit too high on Stutzle a year ago, fresh off his 90-point season. Sure enough, reality hit for "Jimmy", who regressed to just 18 goals and 70 points. Yet am I the one still too high on Stutzle at #29? In the same very early mock draft, Stutzle fell to pick 44 – picked two rounds after Marner, by the same drafter no less. As much as Marner might be a reach in the second round, Stutzle could be a steal in the fourth round.

All of Stutzle's 20-point drop was in the form of goals. So when evaluating Stutzle's production, take a look at the shots. Stutzle's shot rate decreased from 2.9 SOG/GP to 2.6 SOG/GP, which isn't a huge decline. However, his drop from 17.1 S% in 2022-23 to 9.4 S% in 2023-24 was very significant. Stutzle's career average shooting percentage is just under 13%, which would give him 28 goals if he maintains that average for shots per game and games played. If he maintains the same number of assists, he's an 80-point player. Gee, I could have simply averaged his point totals the last two seasons to come up with that! All kidding aside, an 80-point projection for Stutzle seems fair.

In the end, I'm tempted to adjust this ranking and move Stutzle down a bit next month. Unless anyone has a compelling argument to keep him there?

Struggling Bangers

Both Evander Kane (#82) and Tom Wilson (#88) have fallen down the rankings compared to where they were at the start of the 2023-24 season. Kane's scoring production has fallen for the past two seasons, and we saw firsthand during the playoffs how he seems to be playing a lesser role in the Oilers' pursuit of a Stanley Cup. Meanwhile, Wilson fell to a sub-40-point pace in 2023-24, while continuing to be a perpetual suspension risk because of his style of play.

Despite the scoring declines, both still offer tremendous value in bangers leagues specifically. Wilson finished third in the league with 133 penalty minutes, which was the first time he had recorded over 100 penalty minutes in five seasons after eclipsing that mark for the first six seasons of his career. In terms of hits, both finished in the top 30, with Brady Tkachuk the only player to finish with both better scoring numbers and more hits than Kane.

In one recent bangers categories mock draft, Kane fell to the ninth round (99^th overall), while Wilson was drafted not long after in the tenth round (116^th overall). Although this is a mock draft and is relatively early in the offseason (hearing a few people do July drafts for a season that starts in October?!), this seems like pretty good value for two players that can check the boxes in many categories. To compare, Darnell Nurse went in the fourth round. Nurse offers way more blocks than the other two, but not the same upside as the two forwards when it comes to scoring.

In my opinion, Kane and Wilson (and Nurse for that matter) shouldn't be picked in the first few rounds, even in a bangers league. Don't forget about them for later in your draft, as it appears that they might slip because of the kind of production they had in 2023-24. 

Alex Ovechkin

I'm starting to feel like this is an important season for the Capitals with several of their players at a career crossroads. Wilson, Ovechkin, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and a bunch of options that you can vote on for Dobber's Lowdown in the Fantasy Guide.

Chasing the goal record while keeping the Capitals afloat as a playoff team might be top of mind for Ovechkin, but his fantasy value appears to be sinking. In the mock draft where I discussed Marner and Stutzle, Ovechkin fell all the way to the sixth round, where he was the 68^th overall pick. Since it's a very early mock draft, I'm not sure if that was an oversight. But I get the feeling that there's not a lot of faith in Ovie after a season where he fell to 31 goals.

I'll shift to salary cap leagues: Ovechkin isn't even listed in the top 200 of Alex MacLean's Cap League Skater Rankings. I discovered this after I received a very generous offer to trade for Ovechkin in a salary cap league. I didn't accept the offer because $9.5 million of cap space is a lot, and my rebuilding/retooling team is not in a good position to add expensive 38-year-old goal scorers on the decline. (Actually, someone else accepted their similar Ovechkin offer before I could respond.) Ovechkin has been a dominant player longer than many of us thought, but Father Time is still undefeated and will remain that way. I'll be moving Ovie down in the next Roto Rankings.

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