Ramblings: Veleno Signs, Star Player With Contracts Expiring Next Summer (Jul 20)

Ian Gooding

2024-07-20

Light news day today, as it has been since after July 1. According to Elliotte Friedman, the Red Wings and Joe Veleno have settled, agreeing on a two-year contract worth $2.275 million per season. In his third full NHL season, Veleno finished with a career-high 28 points in 80 games. He has mainly been a bottom-6 center for the Wings, but at age 24 still possesses some upside.

After signing Veleno, the Red Wings still have $17.6 million in projected cap space. They still need to sign RFAs Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider. In his salary cap projections, Alex MacLean has Raymond and Seider signing for a combined $14.64 million. There should be enough room for both, but it could be tight.  

This is a great time to mention that the Fantasy Hockey Guide will be available on July 29. Everything that you've come to know and love about the guide is included again this season – its 19th year. Preorder yours today!

One of the sections I have been working on is identifying players entering a contract year. For fantasy purposes, it's good to know which players are entering a contract year, as they have the added incentive of playing for their next deal. Star players are usually trying to maximize their next contract, while fringe players and older players are simply hoping for another NHL contract.

You could also scan this section in the guide for players that might be free agents next summer; in particular, the UFA section. You can stay on top of which players could headline the UFA class of 2025. As well, a team with many UFAs and RFAs may be forced to make some hard roster choices and might experience some major roster changes the following season. In addition, salary cap leaguers are always interested in what their keeper leaguer's next contract will be. 

Let's take a peek at some of the top names who might become unrestricted free agents next summer if they are not signed within the next 12 months. (I'm aware that a prominent hockey website published its own list of potential 2025 UFAs on Thursday, although I didn't find out about it until right before I posted this on the site. This is simply from my own research and my own observations. All of us hockey writers with minimum article quotas are scrambling for topics at this time of year!)

Brad Marchand (Current cap hit: $6.125 million)

Anything can happen, but it looks like the Bruins will be working on something that will make Marchand a lifelong Bruin. That seems likely, as Boston is the only team Marchand has ever played for, and the Bruins seem to still be within a contention window. Marchand's cap hit is very generous, so don't be surprised if he actually receives a raise even though he is now 36. Don't forget that the cap ceiling increased by $4 million for 2024-25, and at least a small increase should be expected for 2025-26 as well.

Mikko Rantanen (Current cap hit: $9.25 million)

Since Rantanen has registered back-to-back 100-point seasons, his next contract should have a cap hit north of $10 million. Even though the Avalanche have their share of cap issues, I'd be surprised if they don't find a way to keep Rantanen, who also has back-to-back 40+ goal seasons. Re-signing Rantanen could come at the expense of keeping Jonathan Drouin and Alexandar Georgiev. Drouin re-signed with the Avs for one year at a very team-friendly $2.5 million, while Georgiev is on the final year of his contract with a $3.4 million cap hit.

Leon Draisaitl (Current cap hit: $8.5 million)

When Draisaitl signed his eight-year contract that started in 2017-18, it was thought to be an overpayment by the Oilers. Since Draisaitl is now one of the league's elite scorers, this contract seems like a bargain and has helped the Oilers sign some other players to bolster their Stanley Cup hopes.

The Oilers don't have a permanent GM at the moment, which is one hurdle that stands in the way of an imminent Draisaitl extension. Since Draisaitl already has five 100-point seasons in the bank, his new contract stands to be above $10 million. The Oilers might be able to get away with paying him slightly less than $12.5 million, which is what Connor McDavid earns. By the way, McDavid's contract at that amount has two years left on it. Ideally the Oilers would like to keep both their superstars, but it may be a bit challenging because Evan Bouchard will be an arbitration-eligible RFA at the end of the season and will surely earn a big raise on his current $3.9 million cap hit.

Igor Shesterkin (Current cap hit: $5.667 million)

Like the above names, I'd be surprised if Shesterkin is a free agent next July 1. However, it may take an eight-figure cap hit to ensure that Shesterkin remains in Ranger blue. Sergei Bobrovsky currently earns $10 million per season, while Andrei Vasilevskiy is not far behind at $9.5 million per season. With a rising salary cap, there's no reason that Shesterkin can't earn a similar amount than those two goalies, even if many teams aren't prioritizing goalies. Shesterkin has a career .928 SV% in the playoffs, so the Rangers know how important he is to their cause.

Sidney Crosby (Current cap hit: $8.7 million)

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$8.7 million… get it? Given how productive he continues to be, Crosby seems in line to play until he's at least 40. Yet with the Penguins having missed the playoffs for the past two seasons, will Crosby remain in Pittsburgh for his entire career? As long as Crosby is on the roster, the Penguins very likely won't attempt a full-on rebuild and could be closer to the mushy middle than to winning the draft lottery. Remember that Kris Letang is on the books for four more seasons, so that could be telling in terms of the Pens' plans to re-sign Crosby.

Crosby's expiring deal was for 12 years, obviously signed at a time when deals that length were allowed. At his age (36), he won't sign a maximum eight-year deal, but something in the 3-4-year range seems entirely possible. Only 10 players scored more goals than Crosby (42) in 2023-24, while only 11 players recorded more points than Crosby (94). I'd lean toward him still signing with Pittsburgh, but plans can change.

John Tavares (Current cap hit: $11 million) and Mitch Marner (Current cap hit: $10.903 million)

I'll pair the two Leafs together because this seems like a season of reckoning for the Leafs. Another season of falling short in the playoffs could mean that the next offseason could result in changes of seismic proportions in Toronto. Can you see the Leafs running back the same core four if the 2024-25 season brings similar (or worse) results?

Marner will only be 28 next summer, so his contract could be in the double digits again, whether Leafs fans think he deserves it or not. He's been a point-per-game player for the past six seasons, and his 82-game pace over the past four seasons has been 100 points or higher. Obviously, there are questions about whether he will remain in Toronto, as his contract is expiring and his playoff performance has been called into question. Out of all the names here, he's truly the one where the jury seems out on whether he'll return. Attempting to orchestrate a trade and receive fair value in return won't be easy.

Tavares is now 33, and his scoring fell to 65 points in 2023-24. Expect his next contract to be below the $10 million mark. Since he made his choice to sign in Toronto when he became a free agent, Tavares seems like the type of player that would give them a hometown discount, which would be an ideal scenario for the Leafs.

Brock Boeser (Current cap hit: $6.65 million)

If the Canucks happened to sign Jake Guentzel, then I don't think there's any way they would have kept Boeser after this coming season. He's still not a certainty to stay after this season, as another team with more cap space could make him a higher offer on the free agent market. In negotiation, Boeser's agent might try to sell Boeser's recent 40-goal season as the norm, while Canucks management will cite that Boeser hadn't even had a 30-goal season prior to 2023-24. Boeser shot a career-high 19.6% in 2023-24, so he seems like a candidate for regression in the goal department. My guess is that Boeser earns a slight raise on his next contract.

Other prominent potential UFAs: Frank Vatrano, Andrei Kuzmenko, Brent Burns, Frederik Andersen, Taylor Hall, Ivan Provorov, Matt Duchene, Jamie Benn, Patrick Kane, Sam Bennett, Carter Verhaeghe, Aaron Ekblad, Gustav Nyquist, Claude Giroux, Linus Ullmark, Travis Konecny, Mikael Granlund, Shea Theodore, Jakob Chychrun, Nikolaj Ehlers. You can read about these players in the Fantasy Guide.

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