Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

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This week, we're diving into players who have shown they can thrive on their current or past teams but could really hit new heights with better deployment. Let's break it down and see who stands to benefit the most from a strategic change in their roles.

Cole Perfetti

Perfetti is stuck in that classic prospect dilemma where he has the potential, but veteran players in their prime are blocking his path. Take Nikolaj Ehlers, for example. He has top-line skill written all over him, but he's still playing second fiddle to others soaking up the prime minutes. While this logjam of talent might be great for the team overall, it can be super frustrating for individual players and potentially harmful for the team's future.

Perfetti's advanced stats over the past three seasons paint the picture of a player just waiting to break out. Unfortunately, his deployment has been a bit stagnant. With better opportunities, Perfetti should be poised for a strong season ahead. Let’s dive into his numbers to see why.

Perfetti’s performance at 5v5 has shown noticeable growth each season. In the 2023-2024 season, he racked up 41 GF at 5v5, up from 32 in 2022-2023 and just 7 in 2021-2022. His xGF at 5v5 improved, from 33.44 last season compared to 29.33 the previous season. This increase reflects his improved finishing ability, with his 5-on-5 shooting percentage jumping from 5.8% to 9.1%. His offensive zone deployment has consistently been over 60%, emphasizing how often he's put in favorable scoring situations by the bench staff. His consistent offensive production, improved shot generation, and solid defensive metrics all point to a player who can handle a top-line role.

Looking at line combinations, at even strength, the line of Vladislav Namestnikov, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Perfetti logged 194:58 minutes. Another productive line was Namestnikov, Alex Iafallo, and Perfetti, with 155:00 minutes. This trio boasted a strong goal differential scoring nine goals and allowing only three. However, the line featuring Sean Monahan, Kyle Connor, and Perfetti also showed promise, with a positive goal differential and a notable SF% of 52.4%, indicating a possibility for better performance with more consistent deployment.

Perfetti has also impressed on the power play. The unit featuring Mark Scheifele, Connor, Iafallo, and Perfetti was highly productive, scoring 8 goals and conceding just 1 in only 32:41 minutes of ice time. This power-play time, along with his even-strength minutes, was primarily due to Gabriel Vilardi's injury, which kept him out for nearly half the season. Perfetti took advantage of that and was a top-six regular for the first half of the season but, like many young prospects, he experienced some dry spells. Then, with the acquisitions of Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli, Perfetti's deployment in the lineup took a hit. Over the course of the past few seasons Perfetti has seen six different linemates in Blake Wheeler, Pierre Luc Dubois, Vladislav Namestnikov, Nikolaj Ehlers, Alex Iafallo and Sean Monahan. Line juggling as we all know usually does not help when a players are trying to figure out their rhythm.

Despite a year-over-year decrease in his TOI by over a minute, Perfetti's output has remained steady at even strength and has even increased on the power play thus indicating that his capabilities as a player are improving. With the exits of both Tyler Toffoli and Sean Monahan, Perfetti may have a chance at more ice-time. Moving him to a top-line role and giving him more power-play opportunities which could potentially lead to higher point totals thus better utilization of his skills.

Brandon Hagel

Hagel is a player who has consistently progressed in his brief but promising NHL career. Over five seasons, Hagel has played 293 games and racked up 207 points. Only 29 of those points have come on the power play. In the 2023-2024 season, Hagel put up 26 goals and 49 assists, totaling 75 points in 82 games, nearing a point-per-game pace.

Brandon Hagel has 26 even-strength points since January 1. The only NHL player with more is Connor McDavid (27). What a run.

— Chris Krenn (@Chris_Krenn) February 25, 2024

Despite his impressive stats, Hagel has had minimal power play time on the top unit, seeing just over a 26% share this season and managing seven power play points. His overall TOI has increased by just under a minute, but his average power play TOI has actually decreased by just over a minute. His shooting percentage stood at 14.1%, down from last year but within a more sustainable range, yet, he still managed to score 10 more points this year compared to last year.

Hagel spent most of his even-strength time with linemates Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. His next most productive line combinations were with Steven Stamkos and Anthony Cirelli. This is where Hagel generated most of his points, as illustrated in the stats tables below.

On the power play, Hagel mainly featured on the second unit alongside Cirelli, Barre-Boulet, and Jeannot. The top unit, consisting of Kucherov, Point, Stamkos, Paul, and Hedman, dominated power play TOI with 61.8%. Despite Cirelli being a regular on the top unit, he only posted 45 points, with just seven coming on the power play.

Hagel's steady progression in TOI and point production over the last three years suggests he can maintain or even surpass these numbers next season. Should he supplant Cirelli or even at the time Steven Stamkos who was starting to show a slow decline in his game (though still impressive for his age) Hagel could have seized the opportunity to become a permanent fixture on the top power play unit. Now that Stamkos is out of the picture and enter Jake Guentzel, things look a little cloudy at the moment as only Jon Cooper knows where he plans on playing Guentzel.  However, Hagel may get a solid look this year and prove his worth if Guentzel is slow out of the gate or faulters at any point during the season, take a moment and read Brennen Des' article here on why you may want to avoid drafting Guentzel to high in your upcoming drafts.  Nonetheless, he still has a chance and should this happen, expect his point totals to soar next year.

Given Hagel’s potential and his ability to produce points even with limited power play time, better deployment could significantly boost his fantasy value. If you’re looking for a player who might break out even further with the right opportunities, Hagel is one to keep an eye on. With more power play time and a more prominent role alongside elite talent, Hagel's ceiling can be a lot higher. I would not go as far as calling him a sleeper as I am sure he is already on a lot of fantasy managers' radar but he definitely has more in the tank, he just needs the opportunity.

Pierre-Luc Dubois

Alright, I know that you're going to say but just hear me out for a moment before I start getting comments on X about how crazy I am. Let me explain why I believe Dubois deserves to be here. This situation really can’t get much worse. After a solid season with the Winnipeg Jets, Dubois joined the LA Kings on an $8.5 million AAV contract running until 2031. Everyone was excited to see what Dubois could do on the Kings. The wheels fell off quickly and the pitchforks came out just as fast. 

GM Rob Blake said they're not buying out Dubois’ contract, they wanted to make this work. Lo and behold, he was moved to Washington for Darcy Kuemper. Regardless of Dubois being shipped out to the Capitals we can still take a look at this past and see if it was a combination of him, the team, linemates, coaching or a combination of everything. We know from his past that he can produce offensively, and if he got paired with top-tier wingers in Los Angeles, things may have looked a little different. But did that happen this past year? Not really.

The knock against Dubois has been that he has shown a lack of drive when things don’t fit within his wheelhouse, and there’s always been talk about his desire to play in Montreal which doesn't look like it is happening anytime soon. Despite these factors, he signed an eight-year, $68 million contract. So, let's dig deeper to see if it’s his deployment that’s the issue or at least part of it.

Flashback to his time in Winnipeg.  During the 2022-2023 season, Dubois played most of his even-strength TOI with Kyle Connor, Cole Perfetti, and Blake Wheeler. However, the lines were constantly shuffled—he only spent 17.1% of his TOI with Wheeler and Perfetti, and 12.2% with Connor and Sam Gagner. On the power play, he only played 33.1% of the time on the top unit. That year, he hit a career-high 63 points in 75 games, with an 82-game pace of 71 points. His TOI dropped by half a minute from the previous year, but his average power play TOI increased by the same amount. Even with limited opportunities, he put up solid numbers with top-tier linemates.

Since joining the Kings, it was clear Dubois was not going to take the top line—that's Anze Kopitar's spot. Instead, Dubois slotted in as the second-line center.  Nearly 25 games into the season, he was demoted to the third line, reducing his ice time and linemate quality.

With the Kings, Dubois had been on the third line playing third-line minutes, so his production reflects that. When he arrived in LA, the expectation was he'd play at least on the second line with Fiala. This happened only 17.6% of the season, where he posted 32 even-strength points. For most of the season, Dubois played with Fiala and Alex Laferriere on the right wing. On the power play, he spent 31.5% of the time with Kopitar, Fiala, and Kempe, and 34.9% on the second unit with Danault, Moore, and either Kaliyev or Laferriere. He's most comfortable as the net-front presence on the power play, but with the Kings, he was on the half wall more often than not. In Winnipeg, he was in front of the net.

To add to the chaos, the Kings made a coaching change in February, replacing McLellan with Hiller. Dubois was shuffled between the right wing, left wing, and center. Playing on the wing might not be bad idea, but it depends on his linemates.

When Dubois first joined Winnipeg, he posted 20 points (8G, 12A) in 41 games, eerily similar to the 19 points in 44 games he's put up for the Kings. Coincidence? Maybe, or it might be him adjusting to a new team, new system, and location, which is a lot to take in. Now he's in Washington which presents all of the same issues, again. How he performs is obviously up to him.  In Washington, Dylan Strome had the best points total of his career this past year centering Ovechkin so this may be another scenario where Dubois plays as a second line center role but I have a feeling the Captials may give him more of chance to play up with Ovechkin considering they traded a key piece in Kuemper and took on a hefty salary. 

From a fantasy standpoint, it’s tough to justify rostering Dubois based on his past performance. However, he does bring value with his peripheral stats like hits and blocked shots. There may be a chance for Dubois to turn it around if he is paired with the right linemates in Washington however this is a situation where you do have to proceed with caution because it could honestly go boom or bust.  There you have it. I have said my piece!

Thanks for reading and see you next week! Follow me on X  @Punters_hockey for more content and fantasy hockey analysis.