Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

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1. The Top 100 Roto Rankings have been updated for July following the free agent signings. We’re finally getting an idea of how rosters are shaping up for the upcoming season. As always, you can leave your feedback on the rankings to help make them more accurate for everyone.

I’ll take the time to evaluate a few players that I recently received comments on or have had some additional thoughts on recently.

Mitch Marner

Marner’s draft value might vary more so this season than other seasons. So far, the trade rumors haven’t led to anything, although we still have two months before many single-season fantasy drafts go in full force. The comment (if I understand correctly) was that Marner was too high at #40, which I’ll try to address.

In one recent multicategory mock draft involving some friends of the site, I noticed Marner drafted at #20. I believe that’s too high, and here’s why. In pure scoring leagues, I think that number makes more sense. However, Marner is an assist-heavy point producer who has topped out at 35 goals two seasons ago. He has only eclipsed 200 shots in two of his eight seasons, and he is generally light on hits having never reached 100 hits.

Here’s why I won’t likely move Marner down any further. You can count on him for points, and should be able to no matter where he plays. Even though Marner has never reached 100 points in a season, he has produced at a 100-point pace in each of his past four seasons. He has missed at least 10 games in two of those seasons, while another was the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season. On top of that, Marner has been good for at least 25 power-play points in each of his last three seasons. No anti-Leaf bias from me – Marner should be considered a reliable option. (july19)

2. Tim Stutzle

I thought the fantasy community was a bit too high on Stutzle a year ago, fresh off his 90-point season. Sure enough, reality hit for “Jimmy”, who regressed to just 18 goals and 70 points. Yet am I the one still too high on Stutzle at #29? In the same very early mock draft, Stutzle fell to pick 44 – picked two rounds after Marner, by the same drafter no less. As much as Marner might be a reach in the second round, Stutzle could be a steal in the fourth round.

All of Stutzle’s 20-point drop was in the form of goals. So when evaluating Stutzle’s production, take a look at the shots. Stutzle’s shot rate decreased from 2.9 SOG/GP to 2.6 SOG/GP, which isn’t a huge decline. However, his drop from 17.1 S% in 2022-23 to 9.4 S% in 2023-24 was very significant. Stutzle’s career average shooting percentage is just under 13%, which would give him 28 goals if he maintains that average for shots per game and games played. If he maintains the same number of assists, he’s an 80-point player. Gee, I could have simply averaged his point totals the last two seasons to come up with that! All kidding aside, an 80-point projection for Stutzle seems fair.

In the end, I’m tempted to adjust this ranking and move Stutzle down a bit next month. Unless anyone has a compelling argument to keep him there? (july19)

3. Alex Ovechkin

I’m starting to feel like this is an important season for the Capitals with several of their players at a career crossroads. Wilson, Ovechkin, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and a bunch of options that you can vote on for Dobber’s Lowdown in the Fantasy Guide.

Chasing the goal record while keeping the Capitals afloat as a playoff team might be top of mind for Ovechkin, but his fantasy value appears to be sinking. In the mock draft where I discussed Marner and Stutzle, Ovechkin fell all the way to the sixth round, where he was the 68^th overall pick. Since it’s a very early mock draft, I’m not sure if that was an oversight. But I get the feeling that there’s not a lot of faith in Ovie after a season where he fell to 31 goals.

I’ll shift to salary cap leagues: Ovechkin isn’t even listed in the top 200 of Alex MacLean’s Cap League Skater Rankings. I discovered this after I received a very generous offer to trade for Ovechkin in a salary cap league. I didn’t accept the offer because $9.5 million of cap space is a lot, and my rebuilding/retooling team is not in a good position to add expensive 38-year-old goal scorers on the decline. (Actually, someone else accepted their similar Ovechkin offer before I could respond.) Ovechkin has been a dominant player longer than many of us thought, but Father Time is still undefeated and will remain that way. I’ll be moving Ovie down in the next Roto Rankings. (july19)

4. Speaking of the Fantasy Guide, you can order it here. The 2024-25 Fantasy Guide includes everything you need to secure a fantasy championship for the upcoming campaign. Player projections, sleeper candidates, advanced stat breakdowns, and so much more! 

5. One of the sections I have been working on in the Fantasy Hockey Guide is identifying players entering a contract year. For fantasy purposes, it’s good to know which players are entering a contract year, as they have the added incentive of playing for their next deal. Star players are usually trying to maximize their next contract, while fringe players and older players are simply hoping for another NHL contract.

You could also scan this section in the guide for players that might be free agents next summer; in particular, the UFA section. You can stay on top of which players could headline the UFA class of 2025. As well, a team with many UFAs and RFAs may be forced to make some hard roster choices and might experience some major roster changes the following season. In addition, salary cap leaguers are always interested in what their keeper leaguer’s next contract will be. 

6. Let’s take a peek at some of the top names who might become unrestricted free agents next summer if they are not signed within the next 12 months. (I’m aware that a prominent hockey website published its own list of potential 2025 UFAs on Thursday, although I didn’t find out about it until right before I posted this on the site. This is simply from my own research and my own observations. All of us hockey writers with minimum article quotas are scrambling for topics at this time of year!)

Mikko Rantanen (Current cap hit: $9.25 million)

Since Rantanen has registered back-to-back 100-point seasons, his next contract should have a cap hit north of $10 million. Even though the Avalanche have their share of cap issues, I’d be surprised if they don’t find a way to keep Rantanen, who also has back-to-back 40+ goal seasons. Re-signing Rantanen could come at the expense of keeping Jonathan Drouin and Alexandar Georgiev. Drouin re-signed with the Avs for one year at a very team-friendly $2.5 million, while Georgiev is on the final year of his contract with a $3.4 million cap hit. (july21)

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7. Now that we’re in the thick of the offseason, it’s time to start moving away from the 2023-24 campaign, the draft, and free agency. I want to use today’s Ramblings to take educated guesses at some players that could be undervalued as we head into draft season. I have had a few people ask for sleepers because their drafts are sometime in July so before I do any work actually preparing for the upcoming season, let’s do exactly that. 

I haven’t started any work actually preparing my rankings in various formats, so this is all off the top of my head. I am going to also use a basic multi-cat setup of goals, assists, shots, power play points, hits, and blocks as parameters. I am also going to separate this into two Ramblings, one for today and one for Thursday (further below): guys that can break out with top power play time, and then a list of guys that are unlikely to get top PP time but can still reach another level fantasy-wise: (july16) 

8. JJ Peterka

Back in 2022-23, the entire line of Jack Quinn, Dylan Cozens, and JJ Peterka were standouts as part of the young Buffalo Sabres core. They were lax defensively, but they were able to create very well offensively, and scored 2.8 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, which is good-not-great.

Things fell apart in 2023-24 as Quinn was injured most of the season and Cozens’s production fell off a cliff. Peterka’s didn’t, though, and he finished with 25 even strength goals, leading the Sabres and tallying as many as Sam Reinhart and Brady Tkachuk. Importantly, Peterka was second among Buffalo forwards by share of power play time post-Trade Deadline, trailing only Alex Tuch. There is a new coach in town with Lindy Ruff taking over for Don Granato, but buying out Jeff Skinner has removed one stumbling block for Peterka’s top power play time.

Peterka added nearly three full shots per 60 minutes of ice time between his first and second seasons, is staring down the barrel of top power play time, and could easily be second among the team’s wingers by ice time per game. He won’t bring a lot in hits or blocks, but he can very much threaten 250 shots and 20 power play points which, added to another jump in production, would make a very successful fantasy option that may not carry a high ADP. (july16)

9. MacKenzie Weegar

This is a weird one because aside from potential power play production, this player possesses prolific peripheral prowess. Regardless of his special team role, he’ll soar past 100 blocks and can push towards 200 hits while adding two shots (or more) per game. That, alone, will make him a coveted fantasy selection.

The worry for Calgary’s power play – aside from talent – is that they could make several changes on the blue line throughout the season. It would not be the least bit shocking to see each of Weegar, Daniil Miromanov, and Rasmus Andersson take turns running the top PP unit. Hell, there are probably going to be weeks where all three take turns as the PPQB. That is going to be annoying, but my personal belief is that Weegar is the best puck mover on the team’s blue line, and that talent wins out. Ergo, I think Weegar wins out.

Weegar’s potential role matters a lot. He seems a lock to be a top-25 defenceman in any multi-cat format, but a consistent top PP role could see him be a legitimate threat to be a top-5 defenceman. (july16)

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10. In Tuesday’s Ramblings (mentioned above), I offered some guesses at players that I think will be undervalued when it comes draft time in September. They were more high-end options. Today we’re going to dig deeper and look for values further down the list.

Ridly Greig

When looking at Ottawa’s forward mix, there are nine defined forwards that should all be on the top three lines in some order. While Greig looks destined for the third line, we are just a season removed from Mathieu Joseph being a second-line regular on the left side. It isn’t far-fetched to see Greig fill a similar role if they move him to the wing, and he’s definitely someone that can help open space in the offensive zone with his forechecking. He will probably get some secondary power play time, too, and can push for 150 hits. If he can be a 20-goal, 20-assist guy with around 150 hits, that is plenty of multi-cat value. (july18)

11. Martin Pospisil

Calgary is an interesting team, at least among their forwards, because there’s a whole lot of WTF going on. Who is going to be the third-line centre? Is Jonathan Huberdeau going to get a bigger role? Where do they see Connor Zary fitting in? Can Yegor Sharangovich repeat anything close to his 31-goal season? How hard will Blake Coleman regress? And on and on. Other than Nazem Kadri and Mikael Backlund being the top two centres, there are a lot of question marks. One of those question marks is Pospisil, the guy who wasn’t shy of skating over the line last season and is earning a reputation. Pospisil paced for a 30-point season had he played 82 games, and he has monster hit and penalty minute totals. With a bit more ice time, he can cross two shots per game as well. Even if he’s a 15-goal, 15-assist forward, those peripherals will make him a multi-cat beast. If he can earn more ice time than 12-13 minutes a game? There is a lot of upside. (july18)

12. Kaiden Guhle

There are plenty of reasons to draft both Mike Matheson and Lane Huston at different points of fantasy drafts, but the same could be said for Guhle. For his career, he has 255 blocks and 200 hits in 114 regular season games, and that means he’s a threat for 175-200 blocks and ~150 hits if he can earn some more ice time. He had a three-month stretch in the second half of the season where he earned nearly 21:30 per night. If he’s over 22 minutes in the upcoming season, he can put up huge block and hit totals with a triple-digit shot number and flirt with 30 points. That would be a very, very productive multi-cat season. (july18)

13. Filip Gustavsson

This isn’t much of a sleeper, but I did want to point out that after the Wild hired coach Jon Hynes, Gustavsson managed a .906 save percentage, which was higher than the season’s average league wide. The big note is that the penalty kill improved, which was something that really hurt the team, and if they can improve it even further, it’ll help Gustavsson’s fantasy numbers a lot. There is still Marc-Andre Fleury and Jesper Wallstedt to contend with, but Fleury may be at the end of his road of usefulness and Gustavsson will get the chance to succeed ahead of Wallstedt. Gustavsson is already a favourite late-round goalie target of mine and I’m two months from my first fantasy draft. (july18)

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14. To get your fantasy hockey questions to Mailbag writer extraordinaire Rick Roos, private message "rizzeedizzee" via the DobberHockey Forums or email [email protected] with "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line.

No one does a deeper dive than Rick.

15. Trade: Not much to note from a fantasy perspective, but Xavier Bourgault ends up with a slightly easier path to decent minutes in Ottawa rather than Edmonton. For the Oilers, Roby Jarventie is also a former first rounder who hasn’t quite hit yet. We’ll see what he can bring to the Oilers’ organization as he’s probably the better player today – albeit with a lower ceiling.

Looking back to 2022, Edmonton was all lined up and could have taken Jesper Wallstedt, who was exactly what their system needed even back then. Nowadays the decision to trade down there looks even more puzzling. (july17)

16. Joe Pavelski officially announced his retirement, though this came as no surprise. Best wishes to an all-star player who sounds like one of the most kind and genuine players around the game. (july17)

17. Now to get into the fun stuff. I know we’ve all been missing Tom Collins and his take on the top-10 column since he stepped back in the spring, but Flip Livingstone has done a great job filling in. Unfortunately for Flip, there’s one top-10 article of Tom’s that he can’t replicate, and that’s the annual “Top-10 picks from a Fantasy Draft” column, specific to the WHL fantasy league. Luckily for us, the WHL that Tom always discussed in that article is a league that I’m a part of as well. As a result, I took the time to interview each of our GMs who made the top-11 selections, to get their takes on their picks, and how they felt about each. I’m going to the top-12 just because I can, and because I picked at #12, so that felt like a good stopping point.

In this 24-team dynasty league, each of the teams are owned by a Dobber forum member, and our five-round prospect draft started on Monday July 15^th. (july17)

18. To give you some idea of our league, during the season, each team has three centers, three left wingers, three right wingers, three forwards, six defensemen and a goalie in an active roster spot. We have six reserve spots and 15 minor league spots. By the time the season starts, 960 players are already drafted. There are also four injured reserve spots. We’re also a cap league, with a $100 million budget. It's a head-to-head league, with points assigned in each category. And more.

Overall it seemed like everyone did their homework, as there were no reaches that left me scratching my head. When you have a high-quality group of GMs, it makes it more fun, and in some ways it also makes it more predictable as to which players are going to be left for your later picks. Now, let’s get to it:

• 1. Macklin Celebrini, picked by James Bay Cougars (InForAPenny)

There was no surprise with this pick, partially as it was a shoe-in, and partially because James Bay had made it clear he was planning to hold the pick and take the consensus number-one. Here’s his note: "My pick was straightforward this year. My first time picking first overall, so it would have taken a lot to move it, especially in the current stage of my rebuild. Other than a few early musings about dropping back, it was Celebrini throughout."

• 2. Ivan Demidov, picked by Hamilton Steelheads (Dennis)

This is another pick where Hamilton had noted early what his intentions were, and as the team who also owns Matvei Michkov (as well as Jack Hughes and others), it’s an excellent selection. Dennis had this to say: “Watching Demidov I see a player with the potential to become a point producing star in the NHL. To add to that, part of the fun in drafting young fantasy players is watching them develop. Demidov is an electrifying prospect who often makes bold decisions as if he’s a step ahead of his competition. I’m going to have a lot of fun watching him this season.” (july17)

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19. Quinton Byfield has signed a five-year extension with Los Angeles, totalling $31.25M over those seasons. The $6.25M cap hit makes it very palatable for cap league purposes as he’s just starting to scratch the surface of what he can produce in the fantasy game. It would not be the least bit shocking to see a 35-goal, 70-point, 180-shot, 80-hit season from him in 2024-25 and that is just fine for what he’s earning. (july16)

20. I’ll explain why I’m avoiding certain players in fantasy drafts for the upcoming campaign. While I don’t necessarily think the following players are doomed this year, I think their perceived values are greater than their actual values. This makes it likely that you’ll have to overpay to acquire such players during upcoming drafts. In fantasy hockey, where maximizing value is of the utmost importance, you just can’t afford to overpay.

I decided to do a deep dive on two big names, accompanied by some quick thoughts on a few others. Without further ado, here’s who I’m avoiding, and why I’m avoiding them: (july15)

21. Jake Guentzel

Okay, I know this might be a controversial take, but hear me out.

Yes, Jake Guentzel is an elite player in his prime, and yes, he’ll be playing alongside elite offensive stars in Tampa Bay. However, it’s not like he was playing in the slums before. Guentzel has spent most of his career so far playing beside Sidney Crosby in Pittsburgh. Sure, you can argue that given the six-year age gap between Crosby and Lightning star Nikita Kucherov, the latter might be more effective today. However, I have a hard time believing that Guentzel’s new situation is a massive upgrade – especially because he and Crosby had years to establish a high-level of chemistry. We’re going from a partnership with proven results, to one that seems good on paper, but might need time to blossom. That’s one of the prime reasons I’d steer clear of Guentzel in fantasy drafts for one-year leagues. Regardless of the talent involved here, players often need time to integrate into new teams. That integration period gives them less time to have an impact for your fantasy roster.

On a related note, sometimes combinations that seem great in theory don’t have the intended results. Think of the hype surrounding Erik Karlsson‘s move to Pittsburgh last summer. He seemed destined to thrive while sharing the ice with Crosby, Guentzel and Evgeni Malkin. However, after putting up 101 points the season before, Karlsson managed just 56 last year. I remember feeling similar excitement when Taylor Hall joined Jack Eichel in Buffalo back in 2020, or when Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine linked up in Columbus back in 2022-23, but neither of those unions worked out well either. (july15)

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Be sure to also grab your copy of the 2024 Dobber Fantasy Hockey Prospects Report!

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Have a good week, folks!

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