Ramblings: Johnson Signs, Top Frozen Tools Searches – Rossi, Peterka, Eklund, Ekblad (Jul 28)
Ian Gooding
2024-07-28
The Blue Jackets signed RFA forward Kent Johnson to a three-year contract with a cap hit of $1.8 million. Johnson's production fell slightly in 2023-24 with just 16 points in 42 games following a 39-point rookie campaign in 2022-23. Johnson underwent surgery for a torn labrum to end his season in late February, and he had been sent to the AHL for a short time as well. More stability in the Blue Jackets organization might help steer Johnson back in the right direction. As it stands, Johnson shouldn't be rostered in all fantasy leagues, but that could change if he can break out.
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The Dobber Hockey 2024-25 Fantasy Guide will be available for download on Monday, as confirmed by Dobber on X. Won’t be long now!
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As I've done in recent summers, I will take the time to analyze the top Frozen Tools searches for the past week. Some of the searches are obvious, as they are for players that have been in the news recently. Instead of more about those players, I'll focus on the ones that don't jump out for any reason at first glance. That might also shed some light on why their profiles are popular.
Rossi's first full NHL season was a success. He finished with 21 goals and 40 points, which was good for fifth in rookie scoring. That might not seem like a huge success because perhaps bigger things were expected of the ninth overall pick from 2020 by now. However, a bout with myocarditis related to COVID has delayed his development, as it forced him to stop working out in any way for several months. Since COVID has contributed to the careers of Jonathan Toews and Brandon Sutter ending, it is great to see Rossi back on track.
Rossi received favorable even-strength deployment at times in 2023-24. The best place to be as a Wild forward is on a line with Kirill Kaprizov, and that is where Rossi spent some of his time. However, he could not make his way onto the top power play on a regular basis. The Wild haven't made any major changes this offseason, and all of Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Mats Zuccarello, and Joel Eriksson Ek are returning for the 2024-25 season, which could be a further challenge for Rossi. An injury could open up a spot for Rossi, as he seems like the first candidate to move up in that scenario.
Rossi is entering an RFA contract season in 2024-25, so there is further incentive for him to build on that. The same goes for Brock Faber, who finished second in rookie scoring as a defenseman. The good news for the Wild is that they will finally be over the major portion of the buyout penalty for both Zach Parise and Ryan Suter, which will clear up nearly $15 million in cap space right off the bat.
Even if Rossi doesn't experience that big breakout in 2024-25, he's still a player worth investing in long term. He is only 22 years old and is a major part of the Wild's core moving forward.
Like Rossi, Peterka will be entering a contract season. He offers the Sabres impressive value at under $900,000 per season, but will be due for a significant raise if he can at least match his 50-point output in 2023-24.
Peterka helps his cause goal-wise by averaging nearly three shots per game. Only three Sabres (Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin, Jeff Skinner) averaged more shots per game than Peterka (2.8 SOG/GP) in 2023-24. Peterka had more goals (28) than assists (22) in 2023-24, but the one stat that shows as due for a regression is secondary assists, of which 12 of his 22 assists were. Some players are more shoot than pass, and Peterka might fall into that category.
How Peterka's production could grow is in the form of power-play time. Two players who averaged over 50% of the Sabres' power-play minutes (Casey Mittelstadt, Jeff Skinner) are no longer with the team. That could open a spot for Peterka, who registered just seven power-play points while regularly playing on the second unit.
The Sabres offer an impressive list of young forwards that might be finally ready to take the next step as a team in 2024-25. In an effort to finally get over that hump, the Sabres have re-hired Lindy Ruff as head coach. If the Ruff hiring is successful, multiple Sabres could be in line for improvements stats-wise. No one on the Sabres reached 60 points in 2023-24. That includes Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch, who have had much better seasons. An increase in their production could mean an improvement for Peterka.
Amid an expected disastrous season for the Sharks, did it seem like Eklund's 45-point effort in his first full season didn't receive much play? Perhaps it was because Eklund wasn't considered a rookie, having played 17 combined games over two previous seasons. On what had to be one of the NHL's worst all-time teams (minus-150 goal differential), Eklund finished second to Mikael Granlund in overall team scoring.
The good news is that help appears to be on the way. Tyler Toffoli should provide immediate scoring help and veteran leadership for a young Sharks squad. As well, first overall pick Macklin Celebrini appears ready to jump into the NHL right away, while Will Smith has signed an NHL contract and could also be in the Sharks' opening-night lineup. Don't expect top-line minutes from all, but Eklund was already on the top power play in 2023-24 and should remain there. Icetime and deployment shouldn't be an issue, but how much San Jose's inexperienced roster can produce would be the main challenge for Eklund to build on his point total.
Unfortunately, Eklund was the winner of the green jacket award, finishing with a league-worst minus-45. No worries, as Connor Bedard finished tied for second with a minus-44. Just something to keep in mind if the plus/minus category carries as much weight as goals or assists in your league.
The 2023-24 season will always be one to remember for Ekblad because of the Panthers' Stanley Cup win. However, it might have been one to forget when it comes to personal stats. Due to an injury the previous season, Ekblad didn't make his season debut until mid-November, and then he was sidelined again for parts of March and April. As a result, he finished with a career-low 18 points in 51 games. Even with the missed games, Ekblad's 0.35 PTS/GP was his worst per-game output since 2016-17.
The question is what we should make of his poor offensive season. Just two seasons ago, Ekblad finished with 57 points in just 61 games for a near point-per-game season. However, another injury early in 2022-23 and the emergence of Brandon Montour resulted in Ekblad losing his spot on the top power play, which he never regained in 2023-24. Also this past season, Ekblad's shot total also decreased below 2.0 SOG/GP for the first time.
Since Montour has now signed with the Seattle Kraken, could Ekblad be back in that spot? There's a good chance, although it wouldn't surprise me if Paul Maurice decided to go with Gustav Forsling there instead. Forsling's stock has been on the rise as a top-tier defenseman, and he has averaged close to 40 points over his last three seasons. If Ekblad is back on the second power play, then he may no longer be rosterable in many standard-sized leagues. He doesn't provide heavy peripherals aside from the shots, and he has averaged 61 games per season over the past three seasons.
Something to watch with Ekblad is that he will be a UFA next summer if he is not re-signed. There have been rumors that the Panthers are trying to trade Ekblad, perhaps so they can focus their efforts on re-signing Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Bennett, both of whom also have contracts expiring. If Ekblad offers a similar level of production this coming season compared to 2023-24 (29-point pace) with more injuries, then his next contract will most likely be less than $7.5 million per season.
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