The fantasy guide dropped yesterday! If you haven't bought the guide though, go do that now and then come back to read this after, because the fantasy guide is the pinnacle of what we produce here, and not only is it the most engrossing read, but buying one is also the best way to support the content and the creators here at the site.

You can buy it here, or get one of the subscriptions to add a lot of extra content like the prospect guide and playoff tools for only a few extra dollars.

I’ll have more thoughts on it all tomorrow.

*

Yes, this is Mike's normal day for the Ramblings, but I traded one of my August days for this one, as I'm going to have two newborns under my roof by then, so managing Rambling and other duties will be a lot tougher in the short term. As a result, there may be a bit less content from me in Aug/Sept. 

*

Right as the Guide was dropping yesterday, Brock Faber signed an eight-year extension with the Minnesota Wild that pays him $8.5 million a season, and doesn't kick in until July 1^st 2025.

Even though he has only played one season in the NHL, it feels like we already know a full range of what Faber can be. He's a 25 minute per night defenceman that can play in all situations, and is as creative on offence as he is responsible on defence. He paced for nearly 50 points last season while playing a full campaign, racking up 136 SOG, 65 Hits, and 151 Blks. After his first quarter (so when he finally started getting power play time) his scoring rate passed that of a 50-point season and his shot rate rose to 1.8 per game. None of the underlying numbers are worrisome, and he was not sheltered at all. Treat him like a 50-point scorer from the get-go, and in cap leagues… well, appreciate the bargain this year before swallowing the tough pill in the future.

*

An hour later, Martin Necas re-upped with the Canes on a two-year deal at $6.5 million per season. After looking like two separate players the past two seasons, it shouldn't be too surprising that Necas was given a bridge deal to kick the can down the road. However, it's interesting to see him getting walked right to unrestricted free agency in two years (the earliest he was eligible).

This might hint that Seth Jarvis is getting closer to an $8M number on a longer deal, as that's almost exactly how much the Canes would have left under the cap once a few of the fringe forwards are sent down.

Back to Necas, sorting out whether he's going to be a 55-point scorer or someone that can surpass 75 is going to be one of the big debates of the fantasy offseason. On the whole, Necas' underlying numbers show that he didn't have as much luck from his linemates last year playing with Michael Bunting, Stefan Noesen, and Jack Drury as opposed to his breakout year playing with Paul Stastny and Andrei Svechnikov. In addition, he lost a minute of ice time on the power play, explaining most of the situation that knocked him down to 55 points. If the deployment picks back up (and it should with the departures of Jake Guentzel & Teuvo Teravainen) then the 75-point side is the one to bet on.

*

One of those topics that I've had on my list to write about but haven't gotten around to is taking a look at some playoff performances to see if there are any hints towards trends for next year. Now ice time changes would be an excellent thing to look at if it weren't so skewed in the playoffs thanks to the occasional double-OT game. Still, there are some nuggets to be found despite the small sample size and different game in the playoffs.

Below are a few players whose 2023-24 playoff stats provide some insight into what we may see from them next year. 

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2023-24 Playoff Stats: 25 GP, 22 Pts, 37 SOG, 10 PPPs)

The point pace for Nugent-Hopkins is noteworthy, as it further reinforces that he won't again be hitting the highs of his 104-point season. He has been a 70-point player outside of that season, and that's where we should be projecting him next year. However, if the low shot rate in the playoffs (1.5/game) is any sign of what's to come, then we could see the point totals tail off a little. On the bright side, his high-power play scoring should keep him buoyed up in the same scoring range. With Connor MacDavid and the Oilers' power play having hit extreme highs the last few years, and the playoff power play scoring coming in higher than the regular season, it shows that he should remain a focal point of the offence there.

Vincent Trocheck (2023-24 Playoff Stats: 16 GP, 20 Pts, nine PPPs)

Trocheck is aging like a fine bottle of barrel aged whiskey and seems primed for another highly productive season with the Rangers next year. He may not quite hit the point-per-game mark over the course of a whole regular season like he did in the playoffs, but another year in the mid-70s is something fantasy owners would happily take. The Rangers have been running back the same power play unit for years now, and the combination of familiarity and creativity that the group has is a good sign towards Trocheck hitting the 20 PPP mark again next year, after only doing it once previously, all the way back in 2017-18.

Anton Lundell (2023-24 Playoff Stats: 24 GP, 17 Pts, 16:12 ATOI)

I know I said I wasn't going to get into TOI here, but hear me out on this one. Lundell entered the playoffs having just crossed his breakout threshold in the last quarter of the season, where he put up a 37-point pace in just over 15 minutes of average time on ice (ATOI). In the playoffs, he barely saw a bump to that time, but still put up a 58-point scoring pace. I think that next year we can start to pencil him in for a 50+ point breakout season, with these playoffs being the steppingstone for that level of performance.

Alexis Lafreniere (2023-24 Playoff Stats: 16 GP, 14 Pts, three PPPs)

Now I know everyone is getting excited about Lafreniere and his production in the playoffs, and they're already carrying over his 72-point pace to next year, while also wondering if he can go higher. Allow me to pump the brakes on that one a little for you. The reason behind it? That same top power play unit that we mentioned above with Trocheck. Those same five making up the top unit are entrenched in their roles, meaning that come October, Lafreniere will be on the outside looking in once again. His playoff scoring was buoyed by a higher percentage of power play points than anything he has done in the regular season, and his even strength scoring in the playoffs was only slightly above what he has done in previous seasons – mostly due to a high secondary assist percentage. All that to say, is that next year I'll be expecting the same 50 ES points as Lafreniere put up last year, and the only way he is sniffing 70 points is a long-term injury to someone on the top power play unit that allows him to really pad his totals there.

Jake DeBrusk (2023-24 Playoff Stats: 13 GP, 11 Pts, five PPPs)

DeBrusk's new contract is giving me shades of Zach Hyman, and while I don't think he will reach the same highs as Hyman, I do think that it will be a very valuable deal for the team at least over the first half of the contract. DeBrusk showed very well in the playoffs this year, hinting that the 50 points in 64 games back in 2022-23 might not just be a flash in the pan, and instead the 2023-24 production may be the outlier due to increased defensive responsibilities that he won't likely be burdened with in Vancouver. He will also likely be lining up with Elias Pettersson who dealt with a rotating cast of wingers last year. That should also help bump DeBrusk's minutes up, as well as his production. Brennan dove into DeBrusk a bit on Monday as well, more from an angle of whether he's a 55-point player or one who can score over 70, and it's worth a read in conjunction with my contract thoughts as well.

Aaron Ekblad (2023-24 Playoff Stats: 24 GP, six Pts, 33 SOG, 22:33 ATOI)

We might have been able to give Ekblad a pass for his poor season if it hadn't also extended into the playoffs. There just appears to be so little scoring upside anymore, with his shot rates down, his overall minutes down, and no power play exposure whatsoever. If the Panthers can win the Cup with Ekblad only playing 22 minutes a night (and yes that includes overtime games), then there's just no reason to push him in the regular season. Ekblad may be a player that despite only being 28, never appears on one of my fantasy rosters again (and I play in at least five full-time leagues a year).

*

See you next Wednesday, and if you want to keep up with it you can find me on Twitter/X here, or BlueSky here if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.