Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

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1. It might be the middle of summer, but there’s lots happening here at DobberHockey. Doesn’t seem like a holiday to me.

– The DobberHockey Fantasy Guide is now available for download! It’s the same Guide that you’ve come to know and love every year, which includes player projections for scoring and peripheral categories in PDF form by team and by Excel list. Included are sleepers, draft review, Calder nominees, stock drops, goalies, and much more.

As for our French-language version, Le Guide des Poolers will be available as of tomorrow, August 5. You can order it here.

– In addition, the Dobber 2024-25 projections are now in the Fantasy Hockey Geek system! If you have tried to generate Geek rankings with no luck, please regenerate them to receive the update. I will be playing around with the Geek projections in my leagues very soon. They’re important to me, starting with…

… Bubble Keeper Week, which will be from August 11-17. In case you’re not familiar with it, our writers will share players that are on the bubble on their various keeper teams. I have a few interesting names already picked out, which I’ll share with you that week.

– The Offseason Fantasy Grades articles for each team will debut on Tuesday, starting with Anaheim and working our way down the alphabet. Follow along at this link.

– And, over at DobberProspects, the 32-in-32 Series, an annual event is underway! Every day in August, the DP crew will bring you a complete breakdown of a team's Draft crop and insights into their off-season movements (thus far). Following this up in September, DP writers and scouts dive into every team's prospect depth chart with fantasy insights and implications for the upcoming seasons. Check back often here.

3. One potential bubble keeper in a few leagues is Jordan Spence, who the Kings signed to a two-year contract at a $1.5 million AAV. Spence was sent to the AHL for a very brief period last season, but he won’t be waiver-eligible this season and should stay on the roster full-time. Spence has some offensive upside, so expect him to be on the Kings’ second-unit power play. (aug2)

4. Here are some players that are no longer bubble keepers and you can officially cut ties on, as they have signed in the KHL:

Denis Gurianov, 2-year contract, CSKA
Alexander Barabanov, 2-year contract, AK Bars
Ivan Prosvetov, 3-year contract, CSKA

Gurianov, who showed some promise earlier in his career, was held to just two points in 18 games split between Nashville and Philadelphia in 2023-24. Barabanov registered 13 points in 46 games this past season, but he was a combined minus-55 the past two seasons on some dreadful Sharks teams. Prosvetov was the backup goalie for the Avalanche early in the 2023-24 season, but the emergence of Justus Annunen at the NHL level seemed to make him irrelevant in the Colorado organization. (aug2)

5. Shooting percentage isn’t necessarily a category in most fantasy leagues, but it can be used to project players that might be due for an increase or decrease in goals. Quick refresher: If a player’s shooting percentage is unusually high compared to their career average, then the player could be due for a regression. Likewise, a player with a shooting percentage well below their career average could be due for some better luck. Let’s take a look at a few names that could be in store for some different results in 2024-25.

Low shooting percentage:

Cole Caufield (8.9%)

He might get called Goal Caufield a lot in 2024-25. Caufield scored a career-high 28 goals in 2023-24 in spite of a below-average 8.9 SH%. His shot totals are impressive and place him among the elite, including 314 SOG (7^th in NHL) and 3.8 SOG/GP (9^th). Appearing in at least 70 games for the first time in his career was the main reason that Caufield’s goal and shot totals were so high. He appeared in a full 82 games in 2023-24.

If Caufield were to shoot at his career average of 11.7%, maintain his shot total, and play all 82 games, he would be projected for 37 goals. I’ll also take the time to mention that a step forward goal-wise for Caufield should result in a big year for his regular linemate Nick Suzuki. (aug3)

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6. This has kind of flown under the radar, but two of the five players from the 2018 Canadian World Junior team charged with sexual assault have signed in the KHL. Former Flames forward Dillon Dube has signed a one-year contract with Dinamo Minsk, while former Devils forward Michael McLeod has signed a one-year contract with Barys Astana. By signing one-year contracts, the players may be hoping that their cases are resolved in their favor by the end of the season and they are able to resume their NHL careers in 2025-26. I’m not sure it will be that easy, given the seriousness of what they will be on trial for.

7. Faceoffs are not counted in all fantasy leagues, but they are included in a few. Does your league count total faceoffs, faceoff wins, faceoff losses, and/or faceoff percentage? Understanding which stat(s) your league uses is important in determining which faceoff specialists to target.

This is an obvious one, but centers are the primary players taking faceoffs, making them more valuable in leagues that count faceoff statistics. If your league counts faceoffs, make sure your forwards contain a strong composition of centers.

Winning faceoffs can also lead to more puck possession and scoring opportunities, indirectly impacting other scoring categories like goals and assists.

You might also want to pay attention to matchups, as some teams and players have better faceoff records against specific opponents. That could help if you are in a tight head-to-head matchup heading into the weekend (particularly Sunday). (aug2)

8. Here are some of the top faceoff specialists you might want to consider for your fantasy team.

Joel Eriksson Ek

Among players in the top 10 in total faceoffs, Eriksson Ek was the only player to win less than 50% of his faceoffs in 2023-24. If we were rounding to the nearest full number, it would be 50%, but more accurately JEE came in at 49.7%. All of the players in the top 10 took at least 1450 faceoff draws and won at least 750 draws.

In any of his seven full NHL seasons, Eriksson Ek has never won more draws than he has lost, with the 49.7% win rate his single-season career best. That’s not to suggest Eriksson Ek is bad at taking faceoffs. The distinction here is that he is a better option in leagues that count total faceoffs (1602 – 3^rd) or faceoffs won (796 – 10^th) than he is in leagues that count faceoff percentage, where he has proven to be average at best. If you need faceoff percentage, someone like Tavares is a better option.

Other sub-50% faceoff winners with strong faceoff win totals and decent scoring: Nathan MacKinnon, Mark Scheifele, Nazem Kadri, Dylan Cozens, Casey Mittelstadt. If you simply need volume in faceoffs or faceoffs won without the faceoffs lost or win percentage, these options will work. (aug2)

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9. It has been a week since I’ve had a Ramblings and there have been a lot of extensions in that time. Let’s take a look at some young players that got their RFA contracts recently.

The Montreal Canadiens wrapped up their remaining RFAs by signing both Arber Xhekaj and Justin Barron. Both got two-year extensions with Xhekaj earning $1.3M per season and Barron getting $1.15M. The former has 23 points, 284 hits, and 182 PIMs in 95 career regular season games while the latter has 30 points, 102 blocks, and 115 hits in 94 career games.

Before getting to the individuals, one thing this should highlight is the slew of left-handed defencemen that Montreal has. While both David Reinbacher and Logan Mailloux are right-handed shots in the system, it seems likely at least one will start the season in the AHL, if not both. That isn’t to say they won’t work their way up as the season wears on, but the only proven right-hand shots guaranteed to be on the roster in October are Barron and David Savard. All of Xhekaj, Mike Matheson, Jordan Harris, Kaiden Guhle (more on him in a second), Lane Hutson, and Jayden Struble are left-hand shots. Let’s work out the depth chart (these won’t necessarily be the pairings, we’re just sizing up the roster):

Guhle – Savard
Matheson – Barron
??? – ???
???

That makes two lineup spots, and three NHL spots, for Xhekaj, Harris, Hutson, and Struble, let alone Mailloux and Reinbacher. If Mailloux makes the roster out of the gate by virtue of being a much-needed right-hand shot, there is one lineup spot left for Xhekaj, Harris, Hutson, and Struble. Like many fantasy hockey fanatics that double as a Montreal fan, I have a lot of belief that Hutson will be an excellent defenceman in the NHL, but there is a lot of competition for that lineup spot. The team does seem to like Xhekaj, so we’ll probably see some sort of rotation of Barron, Xhekaj, Hutson, and Mailloux where one is sitting out, or one is the seventh defenceman in an 11/7 lineup, with the others in the AHL. In fact, I suspect we’ll see Montreal run a lot of 11/7 lineups this season. Huston is knocking on the door, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him take over the power play from Matheson perhaps in, say, February, but I don’t think he’s necessarily in line for a Luke Hughes-like fantasy season. In fact, while perusing the 2024-25 Dobber Hockey Guide, the games-played projection for Hutson is 39 games. Playing roughly a half-season in the NHL sounds right to me. (aug1)

10. If Hutson plays half a season, and both Savard and Matheson are trade-deadline candidates, it seems as if it’s a good bet that Xhekaj plays close to a full season. If he can do that, even playing 16-17 minutes a night, the multi-cat upside is huge. We are talking maybe 125 PIMs, close to 100 blocks, and over 200 hits. He is worth paying very close attention to in those formats, especially if it’s a cap league.

There is some production upside for Barron. If Hutson starts in the AHL, Barron is a reasonable bet to run the second power play unit, at least early on. Add that with around 19 minutes a game in ice time, and 30 points with triple-digit hits and blocks is in play. That is about his projection in the guide, so there’s value here in cap league formats. If there is ever an injury to Matheson and Huston isn’t pushed to PP1, Barron’s value could rise immensely. He is someone to keep in mind in deeper formats.

Finally, Montreal signed Guhle to a six-year extension worth $5.55M per season. It is an extension that kicks in for 2025-26, so fantasy managers in keeper/dynasty leagues will still have another year of cheap peripheral production. The concern is 14 months from now. With all the young blue liners, Guhle will be relied on for his defensive play, so the blocks and hits should be there, but the shots, points, and power play production may not. If he can be a 180-block, 130-hit guy, that has value, but the question is whether it’s enough value to make up for 30-point upside with low triple-digit shot totals. This extension may price him out of cap formats a year from now, but luckily for keeper/dynasty owners, they have a year to decide. (aug1)

11. Columbus signed both Kent Johnson and Kirill Marchenko to three-year extensions with the former garnering a $1.8M cap hit and the latter a $3.85M cap hit. Johnson doesn’t turn 22 years old until October so he could just be getting his feet under him, but the fifth overall pick from 2021 has yet to make his mark in the NHL with 59 points in 130 games while skating 14 minutes a night. Marchenko, however, has 44 goals and 324 shots in 137 career games and turned 24 years old a couple weeks ago. He should really be hitting his stride now.

Johnson is in a bit of a precarious fantasy position. All of Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Boone Jenner, Adam Fantilli, and Marchenko should be ahead of him in terms of ice time. The team seems to like Cole Sillinger, Yegor Chinakhov just had a breakout-ish season, and Dmitri Voronkov looks to be on the cusp of being a very good down-low offensive player. All that doesn’t include the possibility of Patrik Laine not being traded, or him being traded for a player that would exceed Johnson on the roster.  

Right now, at best, Johnson is probably the number-6 forward on the depth chart and may very well be in the third-line range. Columbus has a new coach, but last season, being somewhere in that range meant 25%-27% of available ice time, or roughly 15-16 minutes a game. In the NHL last season, only five forwards skated 16 minutes or less per game and cracked the 50-point mark. The only player who posted more than 60 was Nikolaj Ehlers with 61 points. In other words, expecting more than 50 points from Johnson is probably expecting too much. If Johnson puts up 45 points, 10 PPPs, 130 shots, and next-to-nothing in hits, PIMs, and blocks, how valuable is he really in cap league formats? It seems close to replacement level to me. Unless he really shows out, it’ll be hard for him to have much value outside of very deep formats. (For the record, the Dobber Guide has him with 38 points in 79 games.) (aug1)

12. Marchenko is the far more interesting player, especially if Laine is traded. That would likely make Marchenko the shoot-first guy on the power play, and it’s something that plays to his skills. This is a guy with 30-goals, 220-shots, 20 PPPs, and 60 hits in his tool bag, he just needs the right role to do it. There is also the question of him earning 30%-33% of the ice time as a top guy rather than the 27% he was last season. He can be a 30-goal, 55-point guy if he’s getting 18 minutes a night with top PP time, it’s just a question if he gets it and holds onto it. It will depend on the format and scoring, but it seems like it’ll be hard to rely on him being a top-150 fantasy option, and I’m not sure he has top-75 fantasy upside right now, so where his ADP lands will determine whether he’s a draft value or a draft dodge. (aug1)

13. Martin Necas got his contract from Carolina, being signed for two years at $6.5M per season. It gives him one final kick at the can to really establish himself as a reliable top-line producer before he hits unrestricted free agency.

With both Jake Guentzel and Teuvo Teravainen moving on, it seems there’s a spot for Necas on the top power play unit alongside Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, and Seth Jarvis. However, we have seen guys like Stefan Noesen and Michael Bunting earn top power play time over the last couple of seasons, which indicates to me we can’t scribble in Necas for 75 games on the top PP unit. It seems likely that guys like Jack Drury and Jordan Martinook, or even Jack Roslovic or Jesperi Kotkaniemi, earn some top PP time at different points of the season. It seems unlikely it’ll be at the expense of Aho or Jarvis, and probably not Svechnikov, so Necas has a precarious hold on that fourth power play spot.

In the last three seasons, Necas has been outside the top-4 PP Carolina forwards twice, both in 2021-22 and 2023-24. In those seasons, he averaged 49 points per 82 games. In the one season he was a top PP regular, he managed 71 points in 82 games. Whether he holds onto that top PP role is the difference between a top-100 fantasy option and a top-200 fantasy option, and that is a large gap in value. He has the inside track to those prime offensive minutes, but there are replacements in the side-view mirror that are closer than they appear. (aug1)

14. The big signing was the eight-year extension from Minnesota to defenceman Brock Faber. Here is where we must differentiate between fantasy upside and real-life upside.

In real life, Faber will probably be worth it. I’m not as sold as others, but there is another year of him on his ELC for that to sort itself out. If he can carry a pairing in 2024-25, then he should be fine. If he can’t, well, that’s when the worries start.

One issue in fantasy is role. As long as Faber is running the top power play, he can probably pay off that price tag, or come close to it. If he isn’t running the power play, then he won’t. The other issue is timing because Faber’s first season of his new deal in 2025-26 is Kirill Kaprizov‘s last season on his current one. There isn’t reason to believe Kaprizov will leave, but there is always the chance he does, so there is a world where Faber is A) the top PP defenceman in two years and B) on a power play that will then be without Kaprizov. The nice thing is that with his ELC still going on, fantasy managers have a year to help figure out what he is and will be, but I am not anywhere near confident that he’ll be worth $8.5M per season in cap leagues in two years’ time.

That leaves one season where he’s a great value (2024-25) and one season where his upside is just paying off his price tag (2025-26). After that, it’s a big question mark, so I’m not sure if Faber will ever have more value in cap leagues than he does right now. Something to keep in mind. (aug1)

15. Lastly, Calgary signed hopeful goalie of the future Dustin Wolf for two years. Without much competition around, just being competent could mean 50 starts as soon as 2024-25. The big question is the quality of the team in front of him.

Last season, Calgary was in the middle of the league by shots and high-danger shot attempts against per 60 minutes. In the second half of the season, they traded Chris Tanev, Elias Lindholm, and Noah Hanifin, and while there are good, young players to replace them, whether they can bring the same quality of defensive play is unlikely. If Calgary’s rebuild sees them as a bottom-third defensive team without a high-end offence, those 50 starts from Wolf might not be worth a lot. Jacob Markstrom had a good season last year behind what should be a better team than the 2024-25 edition and, depending on format and scoring, was probably a top-20 (ish) goalie. Wolf might be fine as a third goalie in 12-team leagues, but I’m not sure there’s a lot to wish for beyond that. (aug1)

16. Back to some DobberHockey Fantasy Guide thoughts. Dalibor Dvorsky isn’t shown on the roster, but I can’t help to wonder whether he will be given every opportunity to come into camp and win a job for the Blues this year. He’s coming off a dominant OHL season, and there is room in the Blues’ lineup for them to easily slide him in as a centre or a wing in the top-nine. Radek Faksa is not going to be someone that blocks his way.

His NHL equivalency marker from last year’s OHL season was 45 points, which should probably be noted a close to his upside in a full season next year if he makes it. He’s a great name to stash if your league allows it and there is bench room, but like most players, the fantasy impact is still a couple years away. (july31)

17. With the Red Wings bringing in a few free agents, and likely promoting Simon Edvinsson from the minors, I’m very curious what the deployment will look like for Jonatan Berggren and Erik Gustafsson. I know that Berggren’s upside is high, but I wonder if the perception of him as an offence-only player holds him out of the top-six like it did with Daniel Sprong last year, and Berggren has to similarly settle for scrap of offensive ice time. Sprong did well with it to the tune of 43 points last year, and I think that’s probably a ceiling for Berggren next year as well.

As for Gustafsson, it’s possible he is running the top power play, but it’s also possible that he ends up in the press box a third of the time. Head Coach Lalonde didn’t have an issue last year scratching Jeff Petry, Olli Maatta, and others, so we’ll likely have to deal with the same treatment for Gus at points too. (july31)

18. Eric Staal officially announced his retirement as well. Congrats to him on the successful career, and thank you for helping me to a few fantasy league titles. (july31)

19. One of those topics that I’ve had on my list to write about but haven’t gotten around to is taking a look at some playoff performances to see if there are any hints towards trends for next year. Now ice time changes would be an excellent thing to look at if it weren’t so skewed in the playoffs thanks to the occasional double-OT game. Still, there are some nuggets to be found despite the small sample size and different game in the playoffs.

Below are a few players whose 2023-24 playoff stats provide some insight into what we may see from them next year. 

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2023-24 Playoff Stats: 25 GP, 22 Pts, 37 SOG, 10 PPPs)

The point pace for Nugent-Hopkins is noteworthy, as it further reinforces that he won’t again be hitting the highs of his 104-point season. He has been a 70-point player outside of that season, and that’s where we should be projecting him next year. However, if the low shot rate in the playoffs (1.5/game) is any sign of what’s to come, then we could see the point totals tail off a little. On the bright side, his high-power play scoring should keep him buoyed up in the same scoring range. With Connor MacDavid and the Oilers’ power play having hit extreme highs the last few years, and the playoff power play scoring coming in higher than the regular season, it shows that he should remain a focal point of the offence there. (july30)

20. Jake DeBrusk (2023-24 Playoff Stats: 13 GP, 11 Pts, five PPPs)

DeBrusk’s new contract is giving me shades of Zach Hyman, and while I don’t think he will reach the same highs as Hyman, I do think that it will be a very valuable deal for the team at least over the first half of the contract. DeBrusk showed very well in the playoffs this year, hinting that the 50 points in 64 games back in 2022-23 might not just be a flash in the pan, and instead the 2023-24 production may be the outlier due to increased defensive responsibilities that he won’t likely be burdened with in Vancouver. He will also likely be lining up with Elias Pettersson who dealt with a rotating cast of wingers last year. That should also help bump DeBrusk’s minutes up, as well as his production. Brennan dove into DeBrusk a bit on Monday as well, more from an angle of whether he’s a 55-point player or one who can score over 70, and it’s worth a read in conjunction with my contract thoughts as well. (july30)

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21. After the Canucks were eliminated in round two of the 2024 playoffs, we learned that Elias Pettersson had suffered a knee injury in January, which he played through for another four to five months despite increasing pain. This would explain why Pettersson went from 1.36 points in the first half to 0.80 points in the second half. While Canucks’ fans and keen fantasy managers were probably aware of this information already, it was easy to miss because the announcement came during playoff action, when most fantasy leagues had already concluded. A healthy Pettersson is capable of breaking the 100-point mark, as he showed during the 2022-23 campaign and the first half of last season. Don’t put too much stock into his overall numbers from last year now that we have an explanation for his late season struggles. Pettersson said his knee just needed rest and time to heal, which is exactly what the offseason brings. In other words, it doesn’t sound like this is something that will hinder him during the upcoming season. (july29)

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Be sure to also grab your copy of the 2024 Dobber Fantasy Hockey Prospects Report!

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Have a good week, folks!

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