This week we are moving on to the Metro Division. Over the past couple of weeks, we have looked at a few advanced stats and flagged players whose point pace from 2023-24 looked unsustainable. Our goal is to identify players that may be in line for a return to form, and those who it might be wise to let fall a little on draft day.

As a reminder here is some context setting from the earlier article.

In order to make this process a bit more concrete we are going to focus on three stats from the Dobber Reports: five on five team shooting percentage (5on5 S%), individual points percentage (IPP), and individual shooting percentage (S%). These are certainly not the end all be all of player evaluation but do tend to flag players who are likely to see a different point pace in the future.

With all of these stats, though, it is important to take them into context. Not just what would an average player do, but how does this number compare to their career numbers? In order to do that I grabbed the same data points for the 2023-24 season and am comparing them to each player's recent career average. Broadly speaking, and barring changes in the player's situation (changing teams, sudden promotion to a top line etc.) we would expect these numbers to return that career average.

For our first set of players, we are looking at players who performed better than their recent career averages in each of our three stats. A broad statement we can say about each of these players is that there were more goals scored while they were on the ice than usual, they got in on more of those goals than usual, and they themselves scored on a higher percentage of their shots than usual. In short all of these players could be in danger of less point production in 2024-25.

Something interesting to note for this list (and for all of the honorable mentions as well) is that there weren't any top producing skaters on this list. You have Anthony Duclair (47-point pace), Yegor Chinakhov (45-point pace), and Stefan Noesen (37-point pace). Sure, some of these guys had flashes of relevance on top lines or top power plays but it doesn't bode well for anyone on this list that even with favorable underlying numbers no one could top 50 points in the Metro. It should also give some indication of the players we might expect to see in our next category.

Just as another aside we do have a couple of players (Duclair and Noesen) listed by their new teams. Duclair at least wouldn't be on this list if we were organizing by where players accumulated their points for the 2023-24 season.

I will hit a couple of the players here and I want to start with Yegor Chinakov. Even though he is on this list, there is actually some good news here. Chinakov saw increases in his average time on ice, power-play deployment, shot rates, and a big jump in expected goal rates. Additionally, our chart above shows a relatively consistent IPP to his career average, but it was actually down about 12 points from the 2021-22 season. I see a young player (23 years old) who is steadily gaining deployment, is increasing his shot rates, and definitely hasn't maxed out his underlying numbers. Even though he is featured here I am cautiously optimistic that we can expect a bit more from him in 2024-25.

Stefan Noesen and Anthony Duclair are wild cards here. Both have some underlying numbers that indicate unsustainable production but those are all in old environments. The challenge is much of what they need to be successful is going to come down to deployment. Both of them had demonstrated they can put up streaks when given top line or top power-play deployment, but that deployment isn't guaranteed.

To switch gears now, let's focus on players who might be due for a bounce back. Again, in a similar analysis process we are looking at players who's shooting percentages and IPP were lower than expected. So basically, we can say all of these players had fewer goals scored when they were on the ice and were getting in on fewer of those goals.

And here are our big names.

The numbers indicate that Erik Karlsson deserved a bit better. That Penguins power play was terrible for much of the season so that could be some of it. Some of it is also that he was coming off of a career year so of course most of his numbers are going to look worse in comparison. Some of it is also age – both his and the cast around him. There is no denying that he and the Penguins roster are heading down the aging curve. So yes, maybe we could have seen something slightly better in 2023-23, but I am not really counting on anything higher than mid 50s from him in 2024-25.

It's a good news/bad news sort of situation for Johnny Gaudreau. The data indicates he should have been a little better. The bad news is that it maybe makes him a 65-ish-point player. The problem is a drop in time on ice and an essentially career low shot rate. In terms of line mates the good news is Patrik Laine is out of player assistance and is ready to play. The bad news is he wants to play for another team and might get traded. Columbus added Sean Monahan potentially hoping to spark the Calgary Gaudreau, but Monahan clearly hasn't been the same since those days either. Overall, it is hard not to look at his production and just expect more of the same from Gaudreau. We should be reasonably happy with 65 points from him.

There actually isn't much to say about Brock Nelson. He put up another 65- to 70-point season and while some of his stats fluctuated a bit it looks like he can probably do it again in 2024-25.

Jumping over to Jack Hughes – well there isn't a ton to say here either. He put up a 98-point pace, and not only did it look sustainable, but it could have been better. If he can play a full season, look for him to break 100 points for the first time.

So, let's talk about Alex Ovechkin. At 38, Ovechkin just put up his lowest point pace ever. Is he declining? Sure. But he also just put up 31 goals which is hardly terrible. Also remember he started miserably with only five goals over his first 29 games, but finished with 23 over his final 36 games. He still played 97 percent of Washington's power-play, and over 19 minutes a night in total. His shot rates are finally dipping, down below 3.5 for the first time in his career and his shooting percentage was one of the lowest of his career. He is 38 so those things will likely continue to slip, but he still managed 31 goals. He is still 61 goals off of Wayne Gretzky's record so you have to believe Washington is going to do everything they can to put him in a position to score goals. Is point per game Ovechkin gone? Probably, but that doesn't mean he can't get close to another 30 goals.

And for completion's sake, Mika Zibanejad deserved better. All things being fair and right in the world he might have come closer to 90 points. The Rangers seem set to roll things back in their top six so there isn't much reason to believe he can't be close to that mark again.

That is all for this week.

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