The Journey – Prospects Whose Value Increased after Free Agency – Part 2

Puneet Sharma

2024-08-10

Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

With most of the top free agents now signed, we can begin to form a clearer picture of what the lineups might look like for the upcoming NHL season. This seems like the perfect time to explore the prospects whose value has risen—not just in hockey terms, but more importantly, from a fantasy perspective—following the free-agent frenzy. This is part two of my series on players whose value has increased or decreased after free agency. So, let’s dive right in:

Brandt Clarke

Clarke has already played 16 games with the Kings and put up six points over that span. LA's only notable offseason signing on the blueline was adding Joel Edmundson, more of a depth piece than competition for Clarke. He will slowly be eased into the Kings lineup and will easily see time on the second power-play unit.  Clarke's stellar rookie season with the Ontario Reign earned him a promotion to the NHL in 2024. Before that, the top prospect boasted an average of nearly two points per game in the OHL and then nearly a point per game in the AHL, proving he was ready for the NHL. Drafted eighth overall in 2021, just after stars like Owen Power and Luke Hughes, Clarke is viewed as a future top-four defensemen by the Kings. He's already made a good impression on the team and you should see him full-time in a Kings uniform this coming season.

However, veteran Drew Doughty, with 16 years of reliably managing the Kings' blueline, isn't showing any signs of slowing down, playing over 80 games in each of his last two seasons. While spearheading the powerplay on the Kings, Doughty has only posted one 60-point season and five 50+ point seasons. Doughty becomes a UFA in 2027 and is a cap hit of $11M each year until he becomes a 37-year-old free agent. This careful development strategy highlights Clarke’s high ceiling, as the Kings envision him as their defenseman of the future. Integrating him slowly alongside Doughty, rather than rushing him into a leading role, sets the stage for Clarke to shine.

Jake Neighbours

Neighbours might be the most interesting player for the Blues heading into this coming season. His rookie season with the Blue was nothing short of a whirlwind, brimming with growth and promise. After a 43-game stint in 2022-2023, Neighbours played 77 games netting 27 goals and assists this season, showcasing significant improvements in his overall game.

The most interesting stat was his PTS/60 which increased to 1.9 from 1.1, accompanied by an increase in his SOG/60 to 7.2 from 6.0.  Neighbours isn't just shooting more; he is doing it effectively with majority of his goals coming from the high danger areas which is in front of the net. His overall TOI also showed an uptick by nearly three minutes on average compared to last season.  Add that with the fact he played on the top line alongside Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas most definitely helps his case.

Looking further ahead, Neighbours is showing that he is on track to increase his point totals and responsibilities next season with his role on the first line and top unit. However, a couple of stats might not be sustainable from last year. His shooting percentage of 19.4% is notably high and will likely regress closer to the league average, even with a prime spot on the first power play, so don't be surprise if you see a slight dip in his goal totals. While his physical game is strong with 138 hits (a sharp increase from last year), maintaining such high levels of physical play may be challenging. Its worth monitoring, as sustaining this physicality year after year can be tough. Not to say Neighbours is not capable of it but only a few elite players can sustain a physical game and also put up points.

Neighbours' ability to fit into any of the top three line is a valuable asset. His adaptability is what makes him such a versatile player, which is why he was given the opportunity to play up the lineup. His potential as a two-way player with abilities in all three zones is a strength. Neighbours has shown glimpses of the complete player he is poised to become, making him a key piece for the Blues future.

Connor McMichael

McMichael's journey with the Capitals has been one of ups and down thus showcasing his growth and adaptation across his NHL career. After a limited stint in the NHL in 2022-2023, he returned to play a full 80-game campaign this past season and tallied 18 goals and 15 assists for 33 points in 80 games.

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He showed significant strides, playing in the top-six and accepting his role as a full-time center with increased opportunities in the offensive zone. Despite recent trade rumors, McMichael remains a key piece for the Capitals for now. This season he may have to adapt and play on the wing as Dubois looks to be slotting in to that second-line center position. Picture him slotting in nicely next to Pierre-Luc Dubois and Andrew Mangiapane on the other side, where he could absorb a wealth of knowledge with established linemates.

As it currently looks, this Capitals team is not looking like a strong playoff contender. However, the Capitals’ immediate focus is clear: stay as competitive as possible while Ovechkin chases the scoring record. Long-term, the team is working hard to set up a solid foundation for the post-Ovechkin era with key players like Dubois, Strome, and Wilson all signed to long-term deals. McMichael recently signed a two-year extension with the Capitals worth $4.2 million, giving him the opportunity to establish himself as part of that core group. The Capitals are gearing up for life after Ovechkin, and McMichael's continued development will be crucial in maintaining the team's competitive edge.

Nikolai Kovalenko

The structure of the top-six in Colorado went untouched during this offseason. The Avalanche inked both Jonathan Drouin and Casey Middlestadt, who were key components to the team's success down the stretch this year. Mittelstadt, in particular, was crucial as they needed a solid top-line center alongside Nathan MacKinnon with Gabriel Landeskog sidelined since the end of the 2022 season due to a knee injury.

Valeri Nichushkin is still suspended after being placed in Stage 3 the league's player assistance program and the earliest that he can return is mid-November. Enter Nikolai Kovalenko who was drafted in 2018 in the 6th round.  The uncertain status of Landeskog and Nichushkin opens up vacancies in the top-six, providing Kovalenko with a golden opportunity to secure his spot.

Kovalenko is currently 24, has spent most of his time in the KHL where over the last two seasons he has played 98 games amassing 32 goals and 57 assists for 89 points. Since being brought over by the Avalanche, he has tallied two goals and four points in six games during the regular season and playoffs. I foresee Kovalenko getting significant ice time on the second line with Middlestadt and Artturi Lehkonen. He would be an easy injection into the lineup, he has shown what he can do at the at the KHL level, and his entry-level contract offers a cap-friendly option for the Avs, providing some much-needed cap-relief.

Kovalenko is flying under the radar and considering the unreliability of both Landeskog and Nichushkin over the past two years, he has a strong chance of making the lineup this season, possibly even out of training camp. His potential to solidify a spot on the top-six makes him a sleeper pick to watch in your fantasy drafts.

Thanks for reading and see you next week! Follow me on X @Punters_hockey for more content and fantasy hockey analysis.

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