Ramblings: Bubbling Thoughts on Caufield, Marchand, Kyrou, Skinner & More (Aug 12)
Brennan Des
2024-08-12
It's Bubble Keeper Week here at DobberHockey! Across the website, our authors will be discussing players that you may be on the fence about keeping in your fantasy league. The players involved in such decisions will obviously vary based on the depth of your league and how many keepers each team gets. Regardless, the goal is to facilitate discussion about players that aren't quite considered superstars. Without further ado, here are my thoughts on a few bubble keepers for the 2024-25 campaign.
Although he had been a surefire keeper for years, it seems age-related decline may have caused Marchand to lose that status. Last year's 67-point pace represents his lowest output of the last eight years. Sure, flirting with a 70-point pace is nothing to scoff at, but over the past four seasons his point pace has gradually fallen (107, 94, 75, 67). What makes the aforementioned age effects all the more concerning is the second-half drop-off we saw last year. Marchand started out really strong with 41 points in his first 43 games but fell off considerably with just 26 in his final 39. He showed a similar pattern the year before, racking up 38 in his first 34 before posting 29 in his last 39. Considering the fantasy playoffs take place near the end of the regular season, you can't afford to have one of your high-profile players disappear down the stretch. Unfortunately, it seems that's the risk you'll be running with Marchand. Now, given Boston's lack of talent on the wings, Marchand should still see favourable deployment that allows him to remain relevant in most fantasy formats. After an offseason to rest, I think he can have another solid start to the year, but I'd be very wary of his second-half performance. That's why I'll probably play it safe and avoid him in fantasy leagues this year.
Although he posted a respectable 65 points, many were disappointed by Caufield's output last year – particularly in the goal scoring department. Between Martin St. Louis' hiring in February 2022 and Caufield getting sidelined by a shoulder injury and surgery in January 2023, the small sniper racked up 48 goals over 83 games. Although he had roughly seven months to recover before the 2023-24 campaign began, feeling well enough to play and feeling well enough to thrive are two very different things. It would not surprise me at all if his recently repaired shoulder took some oomph out of his shot and left him with fewer goals than expected. There are numbers to reinforce that storyline as Caufield had scored on 14% of his shots heading into last season but ended up converting on just 9% of his attempts in 2023-24. With another full offseason under his belt, I'm optimistic that his shoulder will no longer be an issue this season. Not only does he have elite twine-tickling talent, but he's in a great situation with the Canadiens. He's exposed to high-end linemates in Juraj Slafkovsky and Nick Suzuki, but he also sees a high volume of action. Last year, he skated 19 and a half minutes a night while seeing 70% of Montreal's total time with the man advantage. He finished top-10 in shots per game last year, making him all the more valuable in fantasy formats which track that stat.
The now 28-year-old forward produced at a high level during his first three years in Florida, pacing for 69 points in year one, 58 in year two, and 74 in year three. He reached those heights without seeing a major role with the man advantage. This past season marked the first time that Verhaeghe saw consistent minutes on Florida's top unit and he made the most of it, registering a career-high 21 power-play points while posting a career-high 78-point pace. He's set to see the same high-profile role this year, with continued exposure to plenty of high-end talent. Expect him to break through the 70-point mark once again. As a third-round pick from the 2013 draft, Verhaeghe didn't receive as much attention as Florida's other stars early in his career, but he can hang with the best of them and should be a keeper in most formats.
Some may be concerned that Kyrou's point pace has gradually fallen over the past three years, from 83, to 75, to 67 this past season. However, he's just 26-years-old and hasn't experienced any major injuries or key linemate losses recently, so I wouldn't expect this trend to continue into the upcoming campaign. Further foundation for my optimism can be found in Kyrou's play down the stretch following St. Louis' coaching change. Kyrou struggled early on under Craig Berube as the two seemed to have a strained relationship. Once Drew Bannister was hired in place of Berube, Kyrou rattled off 50 points in 54 games, which translates to 75 points over 82. His fantasy stock is lower than it should be right now, but he's a player worth keeping in most leagues.
The 32-year-old forward is coming off an underwhelming 51-point pace but he's only one season removed from posting 82. Although he fell out of favour in Buffalo due to his defensive deficiencies, he has great offensive instincts and goal-scoring prowess which could help him thrive in the Oilers' top six. The only question is whether he'll be able to carve out a full-time role on one of Edmonton's top two lines.
Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Zach Hyman seem locked into the top-six, leaving two potential openings. One will likely be filled by Viktor Arvidsson – who figures to be ahead of Skinner on the depth chart because he was given a bigger contract and is less of a defensive liability. That leaves one final spot for either Skinner or Evander Kane. Now if both players were healthy, Kane might get the first call for that spot because the Oilers' have more of a financial investment in him. However, Kane was hindered by injuries this year and his status for the upcoming campaign remains up in the air as I write this. As a result, I think the door could be open for Skinner to play alongside either McDavid or Draisaitl. You don't need me to tell you that would be a dream scenario. Although Skinner will be stuck in a secondary power-play role in Edmonton, I still think he has 60-point potential if he can maintain a top-six role. During the 2022-23 campaign, he placed top-15 in the league with 61 even-strength points. Production on the man advantage may have enhanced his point totals in the past, but he's very capable of being impactful at even strength – especially with the level of talent flowing through Edmonton's top two trios.
The 28-year-old forward remains one of the more underrated offensive producers in today's game. His point-per-game rate over the past three seasons is 0.87, which matches high-profile names like Andrei Svechnikov (0.88), Claude Giroux (0.87), Anze Kopitar (0.86) and Alex DeBrincat (0.86). Despite similar results, there's a vast difference in perception between Schmaltz and those other players. Perhaps that difference is explained by the small market he played in, with fewer eyes on a Coyotes team that didn't enjoy a lot of success recently. Now that the team has relocated to Utah, there's potential for a larger fanbase to kickstart widespread recognition of a player who's been underappreciated thus far. Schmaltz averaged over 19 minutes of action during these past three seasons, which ranks 51st among forwards in the league (min. 100 games played). Not only does he get plenty of opportunity to produce, but he benefits from exposure to superstar Clayton Keller at both even strength and on the power play.
It's easy to forget because he wasn't in the lineup all that often, but Vilardi posted a career-high 63-point pace last year. His output was fuelled by opportunity as he skated 17 minutes a night and enjoyed 63% of Winnipeg's total time with the man advantage. He showed great chemistry with Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele in the second quarter and should return to a high-profile role beside those two again in the upcoming campaign. Since injuries limited him to 47 games last season, Vilardi won't show up near the top of any scoring leaderboards and will probably fly under the radar in most fantasy formats. He has the talent and he'll get the right deployment – it's just a matter of staying healthy.