Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

We're in the midst of Bubble Keeper week at DobberHockey, and of all my rotating columns Goldipucks lends itself best to the Bubble Keeper concept. It's Goldipucks as usual, but this time, I'm looking at solely bubble keepers, namely three players (Mason Marchment, Troy Terry, and Dylan Strome) on most everyone's fantasy radar but who many may be deciding whether to keep or not. Even if you're not faced with a decision about any of these three players, you should still try to figure out which of them had a 2023-24 that was too hot, versus too cold, or just right, and then read on, both to get fantasy insight and, of course, to see if your guesses turned out to be correct.

Mason Marchment (81 GP, 22 G, 31 A, 150 SOG, 15:04 TOI, 11 PPPts, 1:25 PP, 31.1% PP%)

Undrafted, the second generation Marchment toiled in the AHL for parts of five seasons before appearing in his first NHL game at age 24 for Toronto, who then proceeded to trade him to Florida that offseason. Marchment certainly didn't hit the ground running for the Panthers; but out of nowhere in his second season there he posted 47 points in 54 games. The timing was fortuitous, earning him a four year $18M UfA deal with Dallas, where he failed to impress his first season, averaging under a point per every other game. But in 2023-24 he rebounded to tally a career high 53 points. Where does he go from here? Signs point to him doing worse.

On paper, things would seem to be in place for Marchment to do at least as well as he did in 2023-24, as with Matt Duchene returning the line of Marchment, Duchene and Tyler Seguin are all still with Dallas. One issue is that Marchment limped to the finish line in terms of his scoring, with just seven points in his final 22 games. I could entertain the idea of him tiring due to not having played more than 68 games in any season, but he's 29 years old, so I'm not buying that as an excuse. Also, he did this despite his TOI per game being highest in Q4.

Marchment's production was boosted by a Q2 that saw him produce 22 points in as many games. But that was largely the result of ten goals on just 45 SOG, a rate that is of course entirely unsustainable. Subtract that quarter and his scoring would've been 31 points in 59 games, an identical point total to 2022-23 and in just nine fewer games.

The reality also is Marchment hitting 53 points given his low SOG and TOI was definitely an exception. Of over 2200 instances, dating back to 1990-91, of a forward playing 60+ games in a season while scoring at a rate of 0.65+ points per game, just 34 did so while averaging less ice time than Marchment, with one of being Marchment himself in 2021-22, so really only 33. If we look at those who, like Marchment, did so despite not averaging even two SOG per game, the number is cut nearly in half, the most recent examples being Daniel Sprong, Dominik Kubalik, Kevin LaBanc, Nikita Gusev, and Jakub Vrana, none of whom subsequently improved and instead nearly all did much worse. Is that a coincidence? Probably not.

What about the argument that Marchment now has had two solid seasons; does that not help legitimize his production from 2023-24? Putting aside the daunting comparables data, in 2022-23, when he faltered, his offensive zone starting percentage was actually higher than either of his two solid seasons. Another issue is in his two better seasons, his 5×5 team shooting percentage was 12.1% and 10.0%, while in 2022-23 it was 6.7%. Also, his PDOs for those solid seasons were 1035 and 1036. So although there are two "better" seasons among his last three, versus just one poor season, those shooting percentage and PDO rates are too high to be sustainable, not to mention the fact he ended 2023-24 so poorly, plus his stats in 2021-22 are somewhat inflated due to a six point game.

Also, although Marchment only tallied 11 PPPts, that is 50% more than his entire career total prior to last season. How did that happen? He tied for 114th in forward PPPts despite only logging the 203rd most PP TOI. I realize there is not a large sample size from which to draw, but with Marchment scoring so many more PPPts than he had in the past, and more than he should've given his very low PP time, he likely lucked into at least a few PPPts.

Marchment is a fine bottom six player who has shown flashes of very strong play. But even though he's now had two solid seasons, his first was bolstered by a six point game, while both occurred due to sky high PDOs and 5×5 Shooting percentages, plus, in the second, at least a few PPPts he likely should not have tallied. Not only does his combination of low ice time and SOG rate have nearly no comparables, but those with similar outputs in recent seasons pretty much all fared markedly worse thereafter. As such, Marchment's 2023-24 was TOO HOT. I see him as a point per every other game player at best, and he could see his output crater if recent comparables are any example. As such, he gets a rating of 8.5.

Troy Terry (76 GP, 20 G, 34 A, 172 SOG, 18:17 TOI, 13 PPPts, 2:25 PP, 51.5% PP%)

Drafted 148th overall, Terry improved in college, but for a while he was bouncing between the AHL and NHL. Yet he impressed enough – and the Ducks were eager for any scoring help they could get – that he landed in Anaheim to stay in 2020-21. He did okay, but exploded in 2021-22, with 67 points in 75 games, then seemingly legitimized that output by producing at a similar rate in 2022-23, with 61 points in 70 games. But 2023-24 was a step back, as his scoring rate fell to only 56 points. Is the real Terry who we saw in 2021-22 and 2022-23, the not as great player of 2023-24, or somewhere in between? Consider 2023-24 a fluke, and expect more of what we saw from him in the prior two seasons.

The big concern regarding Terry's 2021-22 was his 19.3% individual SH%. Yes, he did have fewer goals per game in 2022-23 as his SH% dropped to a more reasonable 12.2%, but he more than made up for it in added assists, plus him taking 2.7 SOG per game versus 2.5 in 2021-22. Also, what was encouraging is in 2022-23 his secondary assist rate was actually lower than 2021-22, which suggests he might have had the potential for still higher scoring. That was, however, before his step back for 2023-24.

In 2023-24 Terry's SOG rate per game fell to 2.3, yet his SH% fell further. How can that be reconciled? Pretty easily it turns out, as Terry hit 12 posts, a number equaled or surpassed by only seven forwards last season: Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid, Wyatt Johnston, Filip Forsberg, Vincent Trocheck, Mikko Rantanen, and Kirill Kapriov, with only Matthews having more than 13.

That is fine company in which to find oneself, as only Johnston and Trocheck were not 90+ point players, and they were no slouches, scoring 65 and 77 points respectively. Those two also were the only ones not to score 40+ goals, or more than double Terry's 20. Those 12 posts could have easily been goals, plus would've bolstered his SOG total. Right there we should tack on at least a handful of points to Terry's season long total. 

Also, although Terry's PP scoring was in line with his two better seasons, the fact is just one player in the entire NHL had more PP minutes and a higher PP IPP yet fewer PPPts, and that was Elias Lindholm. Terry's 65.0% PP IPP was right in the middle of what it was in his two prior seasons, suggesting he likely was due at least point or two more on the PP, plus once Anaheim starts to fare better, he'll get more PPPts in the normal course.

Then there's 5×5 team Shooting percentage, which for Terry in 2021-22 was 9.5% and in 2022-23 was 10.5%. Even in 2020-21 when his scoring rate was far lower, it was 9.3%. For 2023-24 though, it was 8.2%. Clearly 2023-24 was the outlier, and once that number goes back up, so too will his scoring.

Going back to IPP, Terry's overall IPP was yet again over the key 70.0% threshold that I see with impactful players. In fact, his lowest rate these past three seasons was 2022-23, when it was 71.8%. This shows Terry has a nose for scoring, and has been the case no matter who else is on his line, boding well for a rebound.

Terry finished with eight points in his last 20 games, by far his worst stretch of any quarter since he broke out. Of course players like him will have dry spells, but that is too many games with too few points for a player far more proven than Marchment, and is unlikely to be repeated, especially since Terry still had his highest quarterly TOI for the entire season.

Lastly, Terry's secondary assist rate dropped for the second straight season, this time to a mere 35.3%. What that shows is he is not surrounded by top tier talent, such that for the 2023-24 season if he was going to score it was going to happen for the most part due to him scoring or directly setting up a goal. This metric, coupled with his high post count, strongly suggests a rebound for 2024-25.

Terry is a very good player on a not very good team (at least right now), as shown by his continued overall IPP of 71.8% or higher. Couple that with bad luck in the form many posts hit, plus fewer PPPts due to his team, and there is nowhere for Terry's scoring to go but up, making his 2023-24 TOO COLD, and netting him a rating of 2.0. If he was able to score at a 70+ point rate the prior two seasons, that should be the minimum to expect for 2024-25, with a better chance of a pace above 75 points than under 65 points.

Dylan Strome (82 GP, 27 G, 40 A, 169 SOG, 17:57 TOI, 22 PPPts, 2:57 PP, 63.3% PP%)

Selected 3rd overall in the same draft as Terry, Ryan's baby brother somewhat surprisingly did not land in the NHL to stay until age 21, and was dealt from the Yotes to the Hawks early in the season. To say he hit the ground running in Chicago would be an understatement, as he posted 51 points in 58 games. After a down season, he again fared well for Chicago, but the rebuilding Hawks opted not to qualify him. Since landing in Washington, Strome scored at a 66 point pace and then 67. Is that what we should expect from him for 2024-25 and beyond? I'd say pretty much, yes.

What was most important about Strome's 2023-24 is the fact he was able to maintain his scoring pace despite Washington's offensive stats going from bad to worse, specifically from 20th to 28th in goals per game, and 16th to 21st in PPGs . For Strome to actually find a way to score at a higher rate despite his team doing him no favors, makes it likely he can keep up this pace, as things can't really get much worse.

Another positive is Strome's SOG per game was above two for the first time…..ever! Yes, it was only 2.1 per contest; however, that is still impressive, especially since his trademark nice SH% was actually a hair better than normal despite the added SOGs. Strome also took the ice for over a full minute more per game, yet still without sniffing any PK time, and with an identical OZ% to 2022-23. In short, Strome legitimized his 2022-23 stats while at the same time making it more realistic for him to continue doing what he's done despite the Caps offense not getting any better.

Amazingly, Strome also had only nine secondary assists, meaning 58 of his 67 points were either goals or primary assists. Why then is he not too cold? For one, his IPPs, both overall and on the PP, were career highs, and it is unclear whether those can be sustained. Also, while it is reasonable to presume that someone who has below average secondary assists is due to get more points in normal course; I've found that often doesn't apply to someone who has a very, very low percentage of secondary assists but still a healthy point total. Why is that? Because they're already dialed into the offense. In the case of Strome, although he only tallied 67 points, he had a hand in 30% of his team's goals. For 2022-23 that is a higher percentage than the likes of Jason Robertson, Aleksander Barkov, and Vincent Trocheck. Plus, now that Washington has added some help in the form of Jakub Chychrun and Andrew Mangiapane, they will help boost the offense but perhaps not Strome, who had done it all on his own. In other words, when a player – in the form of goals and primary assists – has provided so much of his team's offense, getting help is more likely to spread around scoring than add to Strome's point total, which might be less the case if he had not been as reliant upon primary points.

One player who the Caps also added was Pierre-Luc Dubois. Although I suspect Strome has done enough to keep a spot both in the top six and PP1, the Caps might try to do all they can to get the most from Dubois, which in turn could cost Strome some of the ice time he added and hurt his OZ%, since for Dubois to succeed he will need favorable deployment.

Also, Strome fared quite a bit better in the second half, playing at a point per game level for the final 41 contests, and tallying 14 of his PPPts. His ice time was up; however, the Caps are not built for a point per game player, so that likely was unsustainable overachievement on the part of Strome. Still, even if he gives some of that back, chances are he won't be as cold as he was in the first half either. In the end, the logical conclusion does seem to be a net wash, namely more of the same when all is said and done.

Although it might not have seemed that way, Strome basically put the Caps on his shoulders last season. But in doing so he only could maintain his prior season's scoring pace. For the 2024-25 season, the Caps likely will be a better team; but that might just mean Strome goes back to how he was in 2022-23. Basically, however you slice it, Strome's 2023-24 seemed JUST RIGHT and I'd count on him again tallying around 65 points, making his rating 5.5.

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Questions for Mailbag 

My next monthly mailbag has room for more questions. To get yours to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.