Dobber’s Offseason Fantasy Grades – Detroit Red Wings

Brennan Des

2024-08-15

For the last 21 years (12 with The Hockey News) Dobber has reviewed each team from a fantasy-hockey standpoint and graded them.

The 22nd annual review will appear here on DobberHockey throughout the summer. This is not a review of the likely performance on the ice or in the standings, but in the realm of fantasy hockey both for the season ahead as well as the foreseeable future. Offensively, will the team perform? Are there plenty of depth options worthy of owning in keeper leagues? What about over the next two or three years? These questions are what we take into consideration when looking at the depth chart and the player potential on that depth chart.

Enjoy!

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Gone – Shayne Gostisbehere, David Perron, Daniel Sprong, Robby Fabbri, Jake Walman, Austin Czarnik, Zach Aston-Reese,

Incoming – Vladimir Tarasenko, Tyler Motte, Cam Talbot, Erik Gustafsson, Jack Campbell, Joe Snively, Sheldon Dries, William Lagesson, Jesse Kiiskinen,

Impact of changes 

It's hard to get too excited about Detroit's offseason additions because they mostly offset their offseason losses. The Red Wings narrowly missed the playoffs last year, finishing 18th in league standings. They were carried by an offense that ranked ninth in the league with 3.35 goals per game but sunk by a defense that allowed 3.33 – ninth most in the league.

To address their defensive deficiencies, they brought in… Cam Talbot? Although the 37-year-old netminder posted solid results behind a defensively competent Kings team last year, he'll be hard-pressed to repeat that performance behind a much more questionable defense in Detroit. The Red Wings struggled to keep the puck out of their net last year because they didn't defend well enough, allowing the 8th most expected goals across all strengths. They lost a promising piece in Jake Walman and made a somewhat lateral move by swapping Shayne Gostisbehere for Erik Gustafsson. Unless youngster Simon Edvinsson takes massive strides this year, the team's blueline seems slightly worse off than it was last season – which obviously isn't good news. Although new forward addition Vladimir Tarasenko can help the team's offense, he doesn't have a great defensive reputation, which could make their biggest issue even worse.

Lost in any excitement about what Tarasenko brings to Detroit's offense is the reality that they've lost a fair bit of scoring this summer. Key departures – Gostisbehere, Perron, Sprong, Fabbri, and Walman – scored 75 of the team's 275 goals last year (27%). Sprong and Fabbri each flirted with the 20-goal mark despite skating just 12-13 minutes a night, so the team's depth scoring seems to have taken a hit this offseason.

Ready for Full Time 

Simon Edvinsson – Drafted sixth overall in 2021, the 6'6" defenseman gave us a taste of the value he'll bring to multicategory leagues one day, racking up 26 hits and 25 blocks through 16 appearances last season. Although he only posted two points, reports indicate that the 21-year-old blueliner did not look out of place at all. That would suggest he'll be trusted with more opportunity this year, likely spending all season with the big club. He'll sit behind Moritz Seider and Erik Gustafsson in line for offensive minutes, limiting the height of his fantasy value in the short term.  

Nate Danielson – As a result of the defensive competence that complements his offensive upside, the ninth overall pick of the 2023 draft could be the first forward from Detroit's current prospect pool to get a look in the NHL. He'll likely start the year in the AHL, but strong play could earn him a call up at some point this season.

Fantasy Outlook  

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Patrick Kane produced at a strong rate last year but missed the first two months due to hip resurfacing surgery. That, combined with an in-season lower-body injury, limited Kane to just 50 games last year. Expect a similar story this season – excellent production when he's in the lineup, but heightened potential to miss games. He turns 36 in November.

Alex DeBrincat had a strong first half last season but wasn't nearly as productive in the second half. His output fell off down the stretch as his power-play opportunity and production shrank. He seems primed to see a consistent role on the top unit this year now that 'power-play specialist' David Perron is out of the picture.

Lucas Raymond – the 4th overall pick from 2020 – broke out with 72 points last year. Only 16 players in the league registered more even-strength points than him. Expect similar production from Raymond again as he maintains a prominent role at both even-strength and on the power play.

Dylan Larkin has scored at a point-per-game pace in each of the past three seasons and should do so again this year.

Vladimir Tarasenko has posted respectable numbers in recent years despite bouncing around teams and lacking role stability. Signing a two-year deal with Detroit finally lowers the likelihood that he'll be dealt at the deadline – as he had been these past two seasons. He'll have exposure to high-end players as a part of Detroit's top-six, but if the team stacks its first power-play unit and Tarasenko ends up the odd one out, his production could suffer.  

Erik Gustafsson should have a productive season quarterbacking Detroit's top power-play unit. He's reunited with DeBrincat and Kane, who were part of his career-high 60-point season with Chicago in 2018-19. While Gustafsson should get a fair shot with the man advantage, if he isn't performing well, Moritz Seider could steal that gig in a hurry.

After a promising rookie campaign with the Red Wings in 2022-23, Jonatan Berggren spent most of last season in the AHL where he popped off with 56 points in 53 games. Expect the 24-year-old forward to see a full-time role with the Red Wings this year. He'll likely manage modest production in a third line role, but he has high upside and could sneak into the top-six if Tarasenko falters.

Fantasy Grade: B (last year was a B+)

Check out the rest of the Dobber team previews here.

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