Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

As you know, it’s Bubble Keeper Week here at Dobber Hockey, and our team of Dobber writers has shared their in-depth insights, breaking down the best possible outcomes and scenarios for many the players on the bubble. When I approach these decisions, I ask myself some key questions: When can I project to see my prospect make it to the NHL? How many points is he projected to put up when he finally arrives? When can I realistically expect him to realistically see him breakout? These are tough questions, and as we all know, predicting them is no easy task.

So, in this article for Bubble Keeper Week, I’m going to tackle a few prospects we’ve all heard of—some we’ve grown to love, and some we’re just desperately hoping will make it because, let’s be honest, we’re not ready to let go.

Scott Perunovich – D – St. Louis Blues

With Torey Krug potentially sidelined for the year due to injury, this could be the golden opportunity for Perunovich to finally establish himself as a reliable power-play defenseman for the St. Louis Blues. While there’s potential for him to step up, it’s important to manage expectations—he’s not likely to become a perennial 60-point defenseman. Realistically, if all goes well, he could put up around 40 points, but reaching that would be a significant achievement in itself. He will still have to compete with Faulk for the top stop, so it’s far from guaranteed.

Perunovich is more suited to be a mid-six rostered defensemen, but the potential addition of Philip Broberg, who was recently offer sheeted by the Blues, might throw some shade onto Perunovich's parade. Perunovich's true potential is probably closer to a 40–45-point range, but with Broberg in the mix that point total could potentially drop further depending on how Drew Bannister sculpts the lineup.

Barrett Hayton – C – Utah

Hayton is definitely a player teetering on the edge of keeper relevance. Last season was a tough one for him and for many fantasy managers, largely lost to injury. The reality is, for Hayton to sustain any value in fantasy for this upcoming season he needs to put up minimum 50 points to win back some fantasy managers. In the 2022-2023 season many fantasy managers saw Hayton record 43 points in 82 games.  So, coming into this past season, there was a sight for optimism and excitement that he would take that next step.  He was injured and missed nearly three months of the NHL season playing 33 games and posting only 10 points during this playing time.

The real question is whether Hayton is able to take that top line center position in Utah or will he be forced down the lineup by Logan Cooley. Cooley plays a true center position.  Utah does have some solid wingers in Keller, Guenther, Schmaltz, Maccelli and Doan that would increase Hayton's fantasy value.

Hayton has played 209 games in the NHL, which is the prime time for him hitting his breakout threshold. However, with the influx of elite talent that Utah has waiting in the wings, Hayton doesn't have much time to figure things out. If he sticks on the top line and he hits the ground running in this breakout year, he could potentially hit 60-65 points, but time and the odds are highly stacked against him along with many fantasy managers' patience. Chances are he will make the top-six, but he will likely lose that top power-play spot, which is crucial considering even being on the top power play he has struggled to get points.

A 40-point season seems very realistic for Hayton. If you are relying on him as a core player on your team, then you're taking a huge gamble on him.  He is more of a "sure I would like to keep him and see what he can do this year" – but keep him at your own risk.

Sasha Pastujov– RW – Anaheim Ducks

Pastujov is one of those players who has sparked a lot of debate on his progression. Some see his offensive intelligence, while others worry about his skating and consistency. This season did not make it any easier to gauge his game, much due to a two-month injury layoff. While he was healthy, he played 46 games and recorded 23 points during that time in the AHL. Sure, he needs to work on his skating, but his playmaking and solid stats showcase he has promise. His work ethic and strides in the defensive zone hint at a player committed to improving.

He has a lot of potential, but his overall speed is a huge point of contention, and his physicality leaves you wanting more. You won't see him make the jump into the NHL probably until 2026 at the earliest, so you may want to give him chance for another year in AHL for further consideration and we'll have a better sense of whether he's going to boom or bust.

Ville Heinola – D – Winnipeg Jets

Anyone who has owns Heinola knows that his NHL trajectory has been a rollercoaster. Currently in his age-23 season, he's shown flashes of brilliance, particularly in the AHL, where over the last three seasons he's recorded 90 points in 130 games. His transition to the NHL has been anything but smooth. The Jets signed Heinola to a two-year extension, indicating that they still see potential in him, even though injuries have derailed his progress. He has not been able to play just over 40% of games in the last three years in the AHL. In the NHL, Heinola has played only 35 NHL games over four years and has struggled to lock down a consistent spot with the Jets.

Heinola plays on the left side, and the Jets' defensive depth on the left behind Josh Morrissey isn't the strongest. So, someone like him who has the puck-moving skills could fill a crucial gap. From a fantasy it really is difficult to see how Heinola will transition into the NHL and become the consistent fantasy threat we all projected him to be. Another big “if” is his health. He needs to show that he can sustain a full year in the AHL grind before moving into the rigors of the NHL. In an ideal scenario, the potential to top out at 30-35 points is plausible, but at this point, it's difficult to picture him as a top-pair defenseman. If Heinola doesn't make the cut out of training camp this year, he will face waivers for the first time in his career, which could lead to a fresh start with another organization.

Pavel Dorofeyev – LW – Vegas Golden Knights

Dorofeyev has impressed in the AHL with the Henderson Silver Knights and also when he made the jump to play with the Golden Knights. The 23-year-old played 47 games with Vegas this past season and posted 24 points during that span. His linemates were primarily William Karlsson, Michael Amadio and Mark Stone. However, with the shift in the Vegas front office wanting to show the league that their prospects are also a competitive bunch, which in a nutshell is another way of saying, “Yeah, so we’re kind of cap-strapped at the moment,” Dorofeyev now has the potential to showcase his skill set.

This year, he could play alongside either Jack Eichel on the first line or with Tomas Hertl and Mark Stone on the second line. Talk about a sweet upgrade. Playing alongside any of these elite veteran players will increase Dorofeyev’s fantasy value. In a top-six role, Dorofeyev has the opportunity to hit 60 points (on the high end) this year, provided he can maintain that position. Should he drop down to a middle-six role, that number could change to closer to a 45-point total, which is still fairly impressive for a young prospect who has yet to play a full season in the NHL.

Thanks for reading! See you next week. For more content and fantasy hockey analysis, or if there’s a prospect, you’d like me to cover, follow me on X @Punters_hockey.