Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

As is now becoming tradition, I'll start the column with a nod to the "Who am I?" thread in the Forums where someone thinks of a real life hockey player or persona, who can be from the past or present, male or female, in the NHL or not, and they give clues to help people guess who it is. You get to enter one guess per clue, and if you guess correctly you think of the next player, so it just keeps going indefinitely. For your enjoyment, here is a "Who am I?" sample. See how many clues it takes for you to guess who I am.

CLUE #1 – I'm a retired American forward

CLUE #2 – I went directly from college hockey, where I played two seasons, to the NHL – that is, I never spent a game in the AHL

CLUE #3 – I was a very consistent player, scoring between 44 and 57 points as well as 10 to 18 PPPTs in each of my first eight NHL seasons, although in some cases my scoring pace was higher due to missed games

CLUE #4 – I represented the United States internationally four times, winning only one medal, but it was a gold

CLUE #5 – Over a four season stretch, I played a total of 75 playoff games, but never won a Cup, but my playoff scoring rate for my career was well below my regular season rate

CLUE #6 – After I was traded from my original team, I had a very solid first season, but then in my final five seasons I never again averaged even a point per every other game

CLUE #7 – My first team was a US Original Six team, after which I played for three other teams which either didn't exist or went by another name prior to 1990

CLUE #8 – I was born in Minnesota, and played college hockey in Wisconsin

CLUE #9 – My initials are D.S. and both my first and last name have two syllables

Hopefully you got it. Check the end of the column to confirm, or, if not, to find out who it is. Now onto the regularly scheduled Forum Buzz programming.

Topic #1 – In a 12-team, keep-13 league with categories of G, A, +/-, Hits, Blocked shots, PPP, SOG, GWG, W, GAA, SV%, Saves, and where forward positions matter, who would be better to keep, Evgeni Malkin or Claude Giroux?

Giroux has settled into a 65-70 point production pattern, other than 2022-23, when he was nearly a point per gamer. But that season Giroux was tied for 43rd in PPPts for forwards despite only logging the 84th most PP minutes, plus he shot 16.4%, which was well above what at the time was a career 11.1% SH. So clearly that season was an outlier for Giroux. Also, for 2023-24, Giroux hit a wall in Q4, with 11 points in 23 games, suggesting that his more than 1100 regular season games might be catching up to him.

As for Malkin, he's two years older than Giroux. Yet due to Malkin's injury history his regular season games played total trails that of Giroux by more than 100, and that's despite Malkin, for the first time since his first two seasons, playing 82 games in two straight campaigns.

But after Malkin seemed to settle in as a point per game player in 2021-22 and 2022-23, why did his production drop to just 67 points in 2023-24? It's pretty easy to pinpoint actually – bad luck on the PP, as Malkin took one fewer PP SOG than in 2022-23, but saw his PPPt total cut in half. Yes, Malkin's PPTOI dropped by more than 30 seconds; however, he still took the ice for nearly two-thirds of Pittsburgh's man advantage minutes. And unlike Girous, there is no doubt at all that Malkin will remain on PP1 given Pittsburgh's other options. What also was encouraging is that despite Malkin having so rarely played anything close to 82 games, his Q4 production was 21 points in 23 games, or far better than Giroux's.

With forward positions mattering, and Giroux likely to have eligibility at more positions than Malkin, he does get a bit of a bump. But it's not like FOW is a category, so it's only a slight bump. And I still like Malkin here over Giroux for 2024-25.

Topic #2 – In a 20 team dynasty, starting 4C, 4LW, 4RW, 7D, 2Util, 2G and categories of G, A, PTS, PIM, PPG, PPP, SHP, GWG, HT, SOG, Hits, Blocks, FOW; W, GA, GAA, SVS, SV %, SO, a team's roster consists of:
C- Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Robert Thomas, Nico Hischier, Quinton Byfield, Tim Stutzle
LW- Kirill Kaprizov, Brady Tkachuk, Jason Robertson, Matt Boldy, Juraj Slafkovsky, Zach Benson, Anders Lee, Marcus Foligno, Alex Nylander
RW- Matthew Tkachuk, Mitch Marner, Mathew Barzal, Adrian Kempe, Travis Konecny, Logan Stankoven, Nick Schmaltz, Cole Perfetti, Lawson Crouse, Jakub Lauko
D- Jeremy Lauzon, Mario Ferraro, Jake McCabe, Nick Seeler, Jake Middleton, Jamie Oleksiak, Erik Gustafsson, Dennis Savard, Connor Murphy, Nikita Zadorov, Daniil Miromanov, Jacob Bernard-Docker, Scott Mayfield
G- Igor Shesterkin, Ilya Sorokin, Jonathan Quick

Is trading McDavid and Schmaltz for Leon Draisaitl, Elias Pettersson, and William Nylander a good move to make, or not a net positive?

First off, the forwards and goalies on this team are bananas for a 20-team league. I had to glance at the thread again to make sure this was a 20-team league, not an 8 or 10 team one!

Some in the thread pointed out that the team arguably wouldn't even benefit from the added forwards, especially in view of it's gaping hole at D. But from where I sit, if a trade makes sense and puts a team in a better position overall, it's usually one to make. After all, if the team ends up with a true surplus of forward greatness, then it allows them to trade even more so from strength, as there will be less top tier talent spread among the other 19 teams, arguably making it more likely they'd have to overpay to get one of these forwards.

And speaking of overpaying, I actually think this is an overpayment for McDavid! The way I see it is let's assign a value to McDavid of, say, $1. So what he contributes in terms of fantasy just on his own is worth a hypothetical $1. But how much less value do the other three have?

I'd argue that if McDavid is worth a dollar, then Draisailt is worth at worst $0.85, with Nylander and Pettersson each worth about $0.70 or $0.75. And Schmaltz is worth $0.25, so this trade would see $1.25 of value (really more like $1.50, since the other team would pick up a player likely worth about $0.25 to fill the spot of the third forward being traded) going to the other team, in return for $2.30. That is a clear win for the team getting the three forwards, so it is a deal I think should be made.

What about the argument that if this trade occurs other squads, even more so than before, will know this team will be in a jam due to too many forwards, and, in turn, they'll make the team pay through the nose if it comes looking for defensemen? I'm not buying it. That might be what they think; however, if this team comes to a Quinn Hughes owner and offers them, for example, Pettersson and Slafkovsky, are they going to say no? And even if they do, then they approach the Adam Fox owner, the Roman Josi owner, the Victor Hedman owner, and so on. Heck, they might even be able to cobble together a deal that could get the Cale Makar or Evan Bouchard owners to part with one of those two.

The lesson is if you're a strong team and have a chance to get stronger, you do it, even if it doesn't strike the best immediate balance in terms of your team. That's because there is always going to be a chance to trade from that strength, whether in the immediate aftermath, or down the road.

Topic #3 – In a 16-team dynasty cap league, each team has 25 players on its main roster and 40 minors players (defined as anyone making $1.5M or less) and the categories are G, A, PPP, PIM, SHP, SOG, BLK, HIT, W, SVS, GAA, SV%, SO. In terms of goalies, there is a 3G start minimum, and as of now there are literally zero goalies on the waiver wire, and one team right has, as its goalies, John Gibson, Samuel Ersson, Cam Talbot, Spencer Knight, Jake Allen, and Ilya Samsonov, plus, in the minors, Jesper Wallstedt, Akira Schmid, Jet Greaves, and Damian Clara. They were offered Andrei Vasilevskiy for Nazem Kadri, Ersson, Alexander Holtz, and Alex Turcotte. Note that the league uses total salary, so Vas's cap hit is not set at $10M, but rather will be $10M this season, then $9M, then $8M, then $6M. Is this a deal worth making?

First off, goalies are pretty important, as 5 of 13 categories are goalie-related, and three of those five are based on volume of starts, meaning that workhorse netminders who play well are certainly prized. So an offer that would bring with it Vas, especially given how the league treats the cap, is something to take seriously.

Last season was the first since 2016-17 that Vas failed to have a double digit GSAA, plus his rate of quality starts and really bad starts were the worst among all those seasons as well. But let's not forget he missed several weeks, making it so it was not a normal season where he could take part in training camp and get prepared like most. Also, he is a firmly entrenched #1 goalie, starting essentially every game that is not a B2B, with really only Connor Hellebuyck and maybe Jake Oettinger also fitting that mold.

Vas also just turned 30, so one would think he's far from over the hill. Yet we can't forget that not only has he logged so many regular seasons games, but Tampa Bay has made several deep playoffs runs, such that Vas has a hockey age that is perhaps a couple of years older than his actual age.

What's concerning also is perhaps we could look past early games last season and discount them due to rust; however, Vas didn't exactly finish strong, as from February 17th onward he had nearly twice as many games with 4+ goals allowed (nine) than games with one or fewer (five). And as for the other games, he gave up three goals in six contests, and two in just two. Those are subpar numbers no matter how you slice it. What's more – never did he face more than 38 SOG, so it's not like he was making a ton of saves despite giving up goals.

I do feel like Vas is too good not to rebound; however, I also feel the price to pay in order to obtain him should be as low now as it's ever been. In Kadri you have a stat stuffer who was a point per gamer after Q1, Holtz who should get a long look in Vegas and might be ale to show he was worth the high picks he was, plus Ersson, despite a rough go of it, might turn into a good to very good netminder. Turcotte is still too young to write off completely; however, I feel he is not a key piece to the trade and should be assigned minimal value.

All things considered, this trade merits making. Home run potential is there, far more so than the fear of significant regret. This also would help the team's goalie situation for the here and now, until the likes of Wallstedt and perhaps Knight make a leap. And the icing on the cake is the fact that Vas will count less and less against the cap with each passing season.

Topic #4 – Who'll be the better own for the upcoming season in points only: Phillip Danault, Eeli Tolvanen, or Alex Newhook?

This would have been a nice one to tackle during the just completed Bubble Keeper Week. Still, it's nevertheless interesting in that we have three players who are rightful to compare, but who are in very different situations.

Danault is seemingly entrenched in LA's top nine, which is good because LA does not learn on its top six anywhere near the extent of most teams, but also bad in that Danault has little upside, as his scoring rate ranged a mere five points and his ice time a mere 18 seconds in the past three seasons. So Danault likely has the highest floor, but arguably the lowest ceiling.

In his first season with Montreal, Newhook only played about two-thirds of his team's games, but he was a PP1 fixture, and ended well, to the tune of 12 points in his final 13 games. So he did seem to be picking up steam as he went along. Also, he had 3+ SOG in five of those 13 games. Yes, in five others he had one or zero; but, he seems to be hitting his stride, which makes sense since his career games played at the end of the season was 214, or right at his breakout threshold. So although I can't say for sure he has as high a floor as Danault, his ceiling is well higher, and it's not impossible to envision him posting 60-65+ points in 2024-25 if all goes well.

Tolvanen, although 25, is not too far above his 200 game breakout threshold. But while many had hoped he'd thrive in Seattle once there for a full season, Tolvanen failed to do better than a point per every other game, and struggled to get ice time at ES or on the PP. Seattle is bringing in a new coach, and Tolvanen's physical game could earn him a trial on a line with more skilled players; however, he was already taking the ice with Oliver Bjorkstrand, who, although not really a top tier guy, is no slouch. So although all hope is certainly not lost, Tolvanen might need the most help to rise to new levels, and on top of that he'd have to produce at a rate he's not yet shown he can achieve.

If this is points-only, then I think rolling the dice with Newhook is the way to go, that is unless the team is in win now mode and needs assured scoring, in which case being able to count on Danault's 50ish points might be safer. If this is a banger league, then Tolvanen likely produces enough to put him above either of these two, although it's still close in that if Newhook really explodes, he'd likely score enough to offset Tolvanen's Hits but more modest points.

Topic #5 – In a 20-team league with stats of G/A/SOG/HIT/BLK/STP/W/GA/SV%, a team that is not in contention to win has been offered Morgan Rielly and Lane Hutson for Roman Josi? Is it a good trade for them?

I'll cut to the chase – this is not a good trade from where I sit. Yes, Josi just turned 34, but Rielly isn't even four years younger, so it's not like he's in his prime. Also, I feel Rielly's name value has now eclipsed his actual value. This is a player who has never put together two elite seasons in a row; and although an "off" season for him is still a 52-point pace, in the two "off" seasons among his last four, his SOG rate was under two per game, which hadn't been seen from Rielly since his first two seasons in the league. Another concerning trend is his share of PP minutes dropping from 67.1% in 2021-22, to just 57.8% this past season. And Rielly's TOI dropped with each quarter of 2023-24. Long story short, I think Rielly is overrated now; and who's to say how well he'll be faring two or three seasons from now when this team is looking to contend?

As for Josi, in scoring 85+ points twice between the ages of 30 and 33, he did something that's only been done by one other d-man dating back to 1990-91, and that was Ray Bourque, who did not see a drop in production until age 37, and even then scored at a 57+ point rate for the next two seasons. I'm not here to say Josi is Bourque's equal, but this is still good food for thought.

Is it possible that with Nashville having bolstered its forward ranks Josi could earn a lower share of points? Definitely; however, the added overall offense should be a net wash in terms of his scoring, especially since in 2023-24 his secondary assist rate was a mere 38.7%, which is tiny for a d-man, and suggests that Josi had been relied upon to supply the offense. Now that a better caliber of forwards are on Nashville, Josi's scoring should be unaffected, if not improve, as a chunk of his primary assists will be repackaged as secondary assists, and he should get even more assists in the normal course.

As for Hutson, after dominating in college hockey, he is rightfully a highly touted prospect. But the reality is he is undersized at 5'9''; and dating back again to 1990-91, a mere 27 rearguards as short or shorter than Hutson have even played a single NHL game, with not even 10 of those logging a total of 200+ games. And of the 27, only one –Torey Krug – has averaged a point per every other game, with Jared Spurgeon and Marc-Andre Bergeron the next closest. So although Krug did have some fine seasons, to say the odds are stacked again Hutson would be perhaps putting it mildly.

For these reasons, I think this is an easy no in terms of the trade offer. What's more: this is a 20-team league, so Josi must command huge value. If – and it's definitely an if – he is to be traded, he should be offered to all the other 19 teams, as I suspect he could net more than a package of Rielly and Hutson if all GMs knew he was on the block. He might even be best traded during the season, when races are very close and top teams are looking for the kind of big boost Josi can provide and might agree to a more lopsided deal than in the offseason.

Topic #6 – In a points-only keeper, who's the better own: Shea Theodore or Moritz Seider?

This is an interesting question, since both have "warts." In the case of Theodore, it's a recent inability to stay healthy, as he barely logged a combined 100 games over the past two seasons. While with Seider, it's that his scoring has been suppressed due to him having been placed in situations not conductive to point production.

The magic question is, of course, which of these cases of "warts" might actually clear up? With Theodore, prior to the past two seasons he played 71+ games in three of his last four campaigns, the fourth being the COVID-shortened 2020-21, when he still logged 53. But it's not great to see this starting to happen as a player is aging, since it becomes more likely to be an ongoing issue. And Theodore, let's not forget, turned 29 earlier this month; so although he's far from over the hill, he's no spring chicken either. Also, although Theodore thrived when he did manage to play in 2023-24, to the tune of a 73-point pace, he'd only exceeded a 60 point pace twice before, and in those cases never above a 65-point pace.

Where I don't worry about Theodore, however, is with the addition of Noah Hanifin. Make no mistake – Vegas didn't pay the price, in trade and contract, to land Hanifin and not give him the keys to the kingdom so to speak. But all that means is Theodore likely gets dealt, or, if not, he signs as a UFA this coming offseason. And wherever he goes, he's likely going to be counted on for blueline offense.

As for Seider, 42 points does not sound all that impressive until you peel back the onion a bit. His OZ% was a miniscule 39.0%, which was 18th lowest among 234 d-men who played in 30+ games, with the best points pace of any of the 18 with a lower OZ% being 31, and more than half not even pacing for 20 points. Also, Seider's 17 PPPts put him tied for 19th among all rearguards, this despite Seider receiving only the 29th most PP minutes. And his 58.6% PP IPP was higher than the likes of Victor Hedman, John Carlson, Erik Karlsson and Miro Heiskanen

So if Seider was not being throttled, he might be poised to explode offensively. That is an if though, as the Wings inked Erik Gustafsson, who, like Shayne Gostisbehere last season, is about as one-dimensional as they come, and could put Seider right back into the same situation as he was in 2023-24. But Gus is making only $2M per season, is five seasons removed from his one and only great season, and the Wings will be the EIGHTH team he's played for since 2019-20! In short, although Gus likely has the inside track at PP1, in view of his fairly low salary and recent jourmeyman ways, it is realistic to envision Seider finding a path to PP1, or at least far more so than it was when the more talented, higher paid Ghost was in the picture.  Of course, much of what I've said about Seider here could've been said at one time about the likes of Ryan Pulock, Tyler Myers, or Darnell Nurse, and they never panned out offensively.

Long term, I still like Seider though, as while there are risks he fails to live up to hype, it could just be a matter of time – perhaps even this season – before he gets a chance to be unleashed. Seider also is six years younger than Theodore. Still, if near term winning is key, the pick might indeed be Theodore, injury risk and all. So for the next two seasons, I'd go with Theodore, after which give me Seider. And I could still even get behind Seider now, as if Gustafsson fails – which I see as far likelier than with it was with Ghost – and Seider sees PP1 time, he could easily post 25-30+ PPPts given his demonstrated man advantage talent.

The ANSWER TO WHO THE PLAYER IS……….Derek Stepan!

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag still has room for more questions, which you can send me by either private messaging “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or emailing [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.