Dobber’s Offseason Fantasy Grades 2024 – New Jersey Devils

TJ Branson

2024-08-22

For the last 21 years (12 with The Hockey News) Dobber has reviewed each team from a fantasy-hockey standpoint and graded them.

The 22nd annual review will appear here on DobberHockey throughout the summer. This is not a review of the likely performance on the ice or in the standings, but in the realm of fantasy hockey both for the season ahead as well as the foreseeable future. Offensively, will the team perform? Are there plenty of depth options worthy of owning in keeper leagues? What about over the next two or three years? These questions are what I take into consideration when looking at the depth chart and the player potential on that depth chart.

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Gone: Alexander Holtz, Tomas Nosek, John Marino, Kevin Bahl, Kaapo Kahkonen, Akira Schmid, Tyler Toffoli, Michael McLeod, Brendan Smith, Colin Miller, Graeme Clarke

Incoming: Jacob Markstrom, Brett Pesce, Tomas Tatar, Stefan Noesen, Paul Cotter, Brenden Dillon, Johnathan Kovacevic, Adam Beckman

Impact of Changes – New Jersey had one of the most impactful off-seasons of any NHL team. The Devils have added a new head coach in Sheldon Keefe, a new starting goaltender in Jacob Markstrom, and bolstered their bottom-six forwards with the additions of Tatar, Noesen and Cotter on offense and their bottom-two defensive pairings with Pesce and Dillon. That is a lot of "new" in New Jersey. Most fantasy projections will have to be in theory as a result, right? It may be unwise to use last year's stats to try to predict this year considering the difference between last year's Devils team and this year's. 

Markstrom is the marquee "new" piece in New Jersey. Markstrom is no stranger to volume, as over the last five years he ranks fourth in GP amongst all goalies. He carries a .909 SV% over that span, including a 2022-23 season in Calgary where he posted an .892 SV% that is heavily dragging down the average. In a position so volatile and uncertain, one thing can be certain: Markstrom will be served games on a silver platter. He'll have a forward corps that can produce goal support, and a D corps that has been much improved to insulate him. On paper this is a great situation, but as it applies to all goalies: buyer beware – it's a lot of "new".

Ready for Full-Time – Jack Hughes has played only 77% of available NJD games since being drafted, and Dougie Hamilton, Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier, Erik Haula and Ondrej Palat all wear the Band-Aid Boy icon on Frozen Tools, so while the NHL roster seems set, Nolan Foote and Beckman are ready at a moment's notice. 

We've seen what Simon Nemec and Luke Hughes can do as NHL regulars. New Jersey still has a fairly promising cupboard. Foote has good size and could make a few appearances throughout the year, especially if one of the NHL forwards miss any time. He won't necessarily be someone worth targeting in your 12-14 team redrafts but can offer some dynasty league plug-and-play value. Beckman, on the other hand, showed a lot of promise in the WHL but hasn't stood out in the AHL. This will be an important season for him as he continues his career in a new organization.

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Fantasy Outlook – Everything will trickle down from how Keefe deploys his players. Does Keefe play Luke or Dougie on the top power-play unit? How will Timo Meier perform under another new coach? Will Jack Hughes' shoulder be at 100%? 

Pulling from Keefe's time in Toronto, the top power-play unit will likely get a majority of the power play time on ice. A Luke Hughes led top power-play unit would create an all-lefty PP – assuming that Jack Hughes, Timo Meier, Jesper Bratt and Nico Hischier all remain on that top unit. A Hamilton-led top unit would not only give you a right-handed option, but he also smokes Luke in a lot of all-strengths rate stats, as well as tripling Luke in PTs/60, G/60 and individual scoring chances for/60 on the power play. Hamilton as the QB1 gives you 5 shooting threats on the man advantage rather than only four shooting threats you would have with Luke as QB1. Having an extra scoring threat forces the opposing penalty kill to pressure the point and play zone-coverage. 

Before the injuries to Hamilton and Jack Hughes, the Devils were the league's top power play (as of December 1). Keefe's preference to top-load his even strength and power-play lines, the opportunity for the big guns of Jesper Bratt, Timo Meier, Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier will continue to improve. There will also be enough offense to go around to keep Dawson Mercer and Ondrej Palat viable in deeper leagues or as streamers. If Jack Hughes' shoulder can hold up, he will be the premiere offensive weapon. Though it is not clear what procedure Hughes had on his shoulder, there have been studies on arthroscopic shoulder labral repair that could spell as much as a 25% drop in production following this procedure. Expectations are high, so if the Devils can string a healthy season together they will go far.

Fantasy Grade: A (last year was an A-)

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 21 - 13:12 NSH vs L.A
Dec 21 - 16:12 EDM vs S.J
Dec 21 - 16:12 CGY vs CHI
Dec 21 - 19:12 MTL vs DET
Dec 21 - 19:12 TOR vs NYI
Dec 21 - 19:12 PHI vs CBJ
Dec 21 - 19:12 BOS vs BUF
Dec 21 - 19:12 WPG vs MIN
Dec 21 - 19:12 N.J vs PIT
Dec 21 - 22:12 VAN vs OTT
Dec 21 - 22:12 VGK vs SEA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
PATRIK LAINE MTL
DYLAN GUENTHER UTA
BRYAN RUST PIT
ROSS COLTON COL

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
MATT MURRAY TOR
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN
CHARLIE LINDGREN WSH
MATT MURRAY NSH

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency VGK Players
26.8 KEEGAN KOLESAR WILLIAM KARLSSON TOMAS HERTL
26.3 MARK STONE BRETT HOWDEN JACK EICHEL
13.1 VICTOR OLOFSSON TANNER LACZYNSKI PAVEL DOROFEYEV

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