Dobber’s Offseason Fantasy Grades – Pittsburgh Penguins

Brad Hayward

2024-08-27

For the last 21 years (12 with The Hockey News) Dobber has reviewed each team from a fantasy-hockey standpoint and graded them.

The 22nd annual review will appear here on Dobber Hockey throughout the month of August. This is not a review of the likely performance on the ice or in the standings, but in the realm of fantasy hockey both for the season ahead as well as the foreseeable future. Offensively, will the team perform? Are there plenty of depth options worthy of owning in keeper leagues? What about over the next two or three years?  These questions are what are taken into consideration when looking at the depth chart and the player potential on that depth chart.

Today, the Pittsburgh Penguins.

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GoneJeff Carter, Reilly Smith, Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Vinnie Hinostroza, Jansen Harkins, Radim Zohorna, Brayden Yager

Incoming –  Kevin Hayes, Anthony Beauvillier, Matt Grzelcyk, Cody Glass, Blake Lizotte, Sebastian Aho (D), Rutger McGroarty

Impact of Changes – The only change in the top six for the Penguins will be Smith, who left for a similar spot with the New York Rangers. He didn't have his best year, and that's probably an understatement. It does open a space for a young guy, whether that should be Drew O'Connor or Valtteri Puustinen getting the first opportunity.

Hayes to center the third line would seem to be an upgrade from last season, as Carter's contract was certainly one year too long, by all statistics. Carter's 15 points in 72 games should be easily doubled (or more) by a younger, bigger, and faster Hayes.

On the blue line, Grzelcyk can add a defensive touch to a team that all-too-often saw odd-man rushes against. In Boston over the past seven seasons, he's had a combined +137, and Pittsburgh already had those puck-moving, power-play guys.

Glass was once the first-ever draft pick for the Vegas Golden Knights, seventh overall, and at age 25 can certainly resurrect his career. 

Ready for Primetime –  The Penguins have a recent history of letting their draft picks languish in the AHL too long, hoping that the window for Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, et al is still open, despite having just one playoff series win (2018) since their back-to-back Stanley Cups. Case in point would be Filip Hallander, who was received in trade for Jared McCann, and is now in Sweden because he never got a chance. 

Maybe that changes this season with McGroarty's addition. He's a year older than Yager, and his NCAA career stats show 91 points in 75 games. Lining up with Crosby or Malkin would be a great opportunity and learning experience. Two years at Michigan (NCAA) and he's filled out to 6'1", and over 200 lb. He's not a kid anymore. 

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Owen Pickering should get a shot with the Pens too. Another first-round draft pick, he'll be 21 halfway through the season, and he's also scored 91 points, although in 120 contests in the WHL since the 2022 draft. But it'll take a near-perfect preseason for him, and he's far more likely to see AHL action with a "cup of coffee" for the big club.

The trio of John Ludvig, Ryan Shea, and Jack St. Ivany played a total of 78 games in Pittsburgh through 2023-24, managing only seven combined points, and a minus-11. With any blueline injuries, they'll each get their chance.

Fantasy Outlook – Father Time hasn't yet struck Crosby as hard as his early-career concussions, and his 19 consecutive point-per-game seasons will likely become 20, setting Sid alone atop that record. Crosby sits tenth in all-time NHL points, and could well finish his career in the top five. He also led the NHL in faceoff wins last season. Malkin needs just a ho-hum year to climb into the top-30 for points, and he should improve on his 18 power-play points, even if 67 (last year's total) overall looks about right.  Bryan Rust's 56 points in just 62 games might be his expectation for 80 games, and a rebound season from Rickard Rakell could fill that gap. Their nine and six (respectively) power-play points need to improve, however.

Defensively, both Erik Karlsson and Kris Letang had mid-50 point seasons, and that's probably on par to assume. Karlsson scoring an 80+ year would justify the $10M that the Penguins pay him, but don't bet a lot on that.

In goal, Tristan Jarry had a statistically sub-par performance, 2.91 GAA and 0.903 SV%, with a losing 19-25-5 record after he signed a five-year contract extension. Alex Nedeljkovic didn't post better overall numbers, but then took over the net late, and finished with just one fewer win (18-7-7).

The elephant in this room is that the Penguins aren't truly a contender anymore. What would be success – just making the playoffs again?  Even that seems less likely than not.

Overall grade: C (Last season was also a C).

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UPCOMING GAMES

Jun 04 - 20:06 EDM vs FLA

Starting Goalies

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  Players Team
GRACYN SAWCHYN FLA
MARCO ROSSI MIN
SAM BENNETT FLA
FILIP FORSBERG NSH
SIDNEY CROSBY PIT

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MICHAEL HRABAL UTA
STUART SKINNER EDM
DREW COMMESSO CHI
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LINE COMBOS

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19.8 TREVOR ZEGRAS MASON MCTAVISH SAM COLANGELO
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16.2 FRANK VATRANO TROY TERRY RYAN STROME

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