Welcome back to another week of Analytics Advantage! This week, we are focusing on a player showcase of Patrik Laine. As the 2024-25 campaign approaches, Laine finds himself in an intriguing position within a promising top-six forward group. The Montreal Canadiens are bolstering their lineup with potential additions like highly touted prospects Lane Hutson, Logan Mailloux, and David Reinbacher to their defensive core. While Hutson is the most likely to secure a roster spot after camp, the possibility of mid-season call-ups adds even more depth to the team. With Kent Hughes at the helm, the Canadiens are making significant moves to push this squad back into Stanley Cup contention.

Since entering the league in 2016-17, Laine has been traded multiple times—a scenario that's not typically ideal for a lottery pick. However, despite these moves, Laine has proven to be a productive player, amassing 388 points in 480 games. Notably, only four players from the 2016 draft class have outpaced him in career points so far: Auston Matthews (649 points in 562 games), Matthew Tkachuk (579 points in 590 games), Alex DeBrincat (440 points in 520 games), and Clayton Keller (418 points in 480 games).

An interesting comparison can be made with Pierre-Luc Dubois, who was selected just after Laine in the 2016 draft. Dubois has accumulated 342 points in 516 games, ranking 28th in career points among all-time third overall picks, while Laine ranks 37th among second overall picks. However, when adjusting for games played, the narrative shifts. Dubois lands at 20th overall with 0.663 points per game, while Laine rises to 14th overall with 0.808 points per game. These rankings will, of course, continue to evolve as both players progress in their careers and as others from their draft class make their mark.

Data Sources

The data for this analysis was sourced from player statistics spanning the 2019-24 NHL campaigns, obtained from Natural Stat Trick.

Data Processing

Player statistics from the 2019-24 campaigns were combined into a single dataset, then filtered for players who played at least nine games in each year to ensure a significant amount of playing time.

To help understand Laine's career path, we will be using some of the graphs that I have previously showcased these past months, along with some new graphs as a single player highlight allows for more creativity. To provide a comprehensive view of Patrik Laine's performance in comparison to his peers, I've created a simple function that lists players who rank within the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles for Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG) each year. This function calculates the FPPG percentiles for each year and identifies the players who meet or exceed these thresholds. By including this information, we can see not only how Laine stacks up against the league's elite but also highlight the consistency and frequency with which top players achieve these benchmarks. Below, I will include lists of players who reached these percentiles alongside Laine for each year under review.

FPPG Laine:

Patrik Laine has consistently been a 10 FPPG player throughout his career, with his peak performance coming in the 2019-20 campaign. Despite facing numerous challenges this past year that were largely out of his control, Laine is poised for a strong comeback. I fully expect him to return to form and continue being the reliable fantasy player we know him to be.

Advanced FPPG Graph:

This graph provides an in-depth look at Patrik Laine's Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG) over the past eight NHL campaigns, comparing his performance against key league benchmarks.

Percentile Lines:

                •             Green Dotted Line (90th Percentile): This line shows the threshold for the top 10% of players in the league each year. When Laine's FPPG meets or exceeds this line, it indicates he's among the league's elite for that year.

                •             Purple Dotted Line (95th Percentile): Representing the top 5% of players, this line highlights those years where Laine has truly excelled. Reaching or surpassing this line is a mark of a standout fantasy performer.

                •             Orange Dotted Line (99th Percentile): The 99th percentile is for the top 1% of players—an extremely exclusive group. Seeing Laine approach or hit this line during some years underscores just how impactful he's been in fantasy hockey.

Blue Dotted Line (Top FPPG):

                •             Top FPPG (100th Percentile): This line represents the highest FPPG achieved in the league for each year. It serves as a benchmark for the best possible fantasy performance, giving context to Laine's numbers relative to the very best in the league.

Overall Insights

This graph offers a clear visual of where Laine ranks among the top performers in the league each year. His ability to consistently stay near or above the 90th percentile line in several years underscores his value as a fantasy asset. Despite the challenges he faced in the most recent year, Laine's track record suggests he's poised for a strong comeback, maintaining his status as a reliable and impactful player in the fantasy landscape.

Thank you for reading and have a great rest of your day! Twitter/X – @DH_staspup for any questions, corrections, or comments. Please feel free to ask for any player's graph—I can post it or DM. Additional player info below: