It is time to be returning to a recurring idea in our column: breakout players. While this column started out reviewing fourth-year breakout candidates, after some work on breakout thresholds more specifically associated with games played numbers, I adjusted the focus of the article to be in alignment with that.

The full article was posted on June 30, 2022, and is a good read so definitely go check it out. The brief summary is that there tends to be a game count by which players start to break out. In this case breakout is defined as a 25 percent year-over-year increase. What they found is that average size forwards need about 200 games, and D plus exceptionally small, or larger forwards need about 400 games.  Please go check it out for more details, but one section in particular caught my attention.

"It’s always a great indicator if you see that a player finishes the previous season with 230 or 240 career games and he just enjoyed a very strong second half. When you see that, then feel confident in a potential breakout for the year ahead."

That got me excited because here are a couple of variables that we can actively filter and sort for. With the right table or reports we can pull this information together. The article also makes clear though that these are all generalities, and there are definitely exceptions, but it made me very interested to see who might be on this list.

So how do you pull together this data? Well, we already know that we can run custom reports for the regular season (I am using Big Board), so if we pick a midpoint date (in this case I used January 14) we can get point paces for players prior to and after that date. Looking at the difference there we can get a list of players who had a stronger second half than first half. There isn't a direct report for career games played, but with a little creative filtering on some longer term reports it can work.

Once I exported the reports with the data I needed, I combined them for a custom table for filtering. After applying the games played and point pace criteria, we get a list of seven names 

Let's just say that this is a very fun list. What we really want to know though is what we might be able to expect from these players in the future. According to the article above these criteria mean this list of players should have a higher probability of hitting that breakout status than your typical player. In concrete terms it means these players are more likely to put up at least 25 percent more points in 2024-25 than they did in 2023-24. So let's add some more point pace data to our table.

We have already addressed a few of the players on this list so I will provide a quick summary, but won't fully dig in again. For Cole Caufield, we spent some time looking at his underlying numbers from 2023-24 and basically came to the conclusion that he deserved something at least in the 75-point range and I was projecting close to a point per game anyway even without this potential breakout factored in. The jump to an 81-point pace seems very reasonable and maybe low if anything considering we are talking about a breakout.

On the flip side we talked about Lucas Raymond in basically the opposite way. He performed well in 2023-24 but his underlying numbers and the off-season additions to Detroit don't offer the same optimism as Caulfield. His 72-point pace seems potentially repeatable, but I have a lot more questions about the bump to 90 points.

For a true breakout we are really talking about changes that are not necessarily already baked into the numbers. Caufield looks like he could almost get to that breakout number with just a little less bad luck. Usually though we are talking about things we can't necessarily predict. Coaches decisions like increases in time on ice, or increased power-play deployment or increases in player skill or changes in playing style.

In that vein, Matt Boldy looks strong across the board in the data we have, making him another good candidate to hit his breakout potential. He has been increasing his average time on ice and power-play time each season, plus he still has some room to grow on his points participation numbers. Essentially there are no red flags for regression on his 75-point pace, and some room for growth. He hit an 85-point pace over the second half of the season and that seems like another strong indication that he is ready to improve.

Trevor Zegras is a very interesting case. He only played 31 games in 2023-24. He had a better second half than first half so makes our list, but only put up a 40-point pace. He had been between 65-70 points so breaking out to 50 points would still be a bit of a disappointment for his career trajectory. Zegras saw a bit of bad luck (shooting percentage, IPP) in his shortened season that could theoretically have bumped him up to a 55–60-point pace had it been a bit more usual. Or another way to look at that might be, he spent a lot of the season injured so maybe he was just less effective and impactful than he has historically been.

Either way, in a new season from a healthy Zegras we would hopefully see those underlying numbers right themselves. That doesn't completely get him back on track though as he would still have seen a 10ish point dip in production compared to other recent years. A big part of that could be that we also saw him drop almost two minutes in average time on ice and an almost 10 percent drop in team power-play percentage. Again some of that could be load management from a coach worried about nagging injuries. But it could also be something else.

There were persistent trade rumors, which does make it a little harder to just right off everything to injury. Perhaps there was something else going on here as well. Bringing this all back around though, a real breakout for Zegras would be something akin to Boldy and Caufield. He has shown he can do 65 points so getting back there would be a return to form, not a breakout. If I am ranking these players based on likelihood to reach that breakout number, Zegras is unfortunately pretty low on that list right now.

We can round out the group fairly succinctly, I think. Morgan Frost has had some pretty inconsistent underlying numbers thus far, but certainly has room to grow deployment wise. He needs to see a jump there (overall and power-play) and have a corresponding tick up in shot rates to take that next step. He certainly could, but it can be a bit of a challenge in John Torterella's seemingly inconsistent system.

Seth Jarvis is definitely looking up. A big time on ice increase overall in 2023-24, plus no more Teuvo Teravainen taking up potential top six and top power-play minutes. The only slight caveat to a potential breakout is a high shooting percentage. That falling back down might eat a little into what looks like a prime opportunity for continued growth. 

And finally, Alex Newhook. A 51-point pace overall isn't that exciting. He was closer to a 55-point pace in the second half, but still not amazing. The good news is he was starting to get on the top power-play in that second half so if he can stick there that would be a huge boon. He certainly also has some room to grow in overall time on ice so there is another avenue for potential growth. Ideally all of that would lead to an increased shot rate, but he might limit himself a bit to make room for Patrik Laine. We don't have established lines yet, but it seems reasonable that Montral would keep that top line together and put Laine on a second line with Newhook. Perhaps he takes the primary shooting role on the line, but the increased talent (and hopefully the increased ice time) are certainly net benefits for Newhook leading me to have some optimism about his potential for 2024-25.

That is all for this week

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