Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

IMPORTANT NOTE – The next mailbag would be normally run on October 2nd, but that will be the week of my Fearless Forecasts. If I get enough keeper questions, I'll do a special mailbag prior to the 2nd, so go ahead and send me keeper questions, plus of course any other questions you might have.  If I don't answer them in an actual mailbag, I'll try to reply to you via email.

Question #1 (follow-up from Jerrad)

Here was Jerrad's original question: I’m in a 14 team H2H, keep 8 league. Rosters are 3C, 3RW, 3LW, 4D, 2G, 5 Bench, plus we get to carry 8 players on our farm. Categories are G(3), A(2), Defense(0.7), Special Teams Goals(0.5) Special Teams Assists(0.3), BLK(0.19), Takeaways(0.19), HIT(0.17), SOG(0.17), SOG(0.17); Wins(3), Shutouts(3.5), Games Started(1), Goals Against(-0.6), SVs(0.12). I'm rebuilding, but my sense is my team is starting to turn a corner, plus I have 7 picks in the first 4 rounds of the draft: 1st overall, 2 second rounders, a third rounders, and two fourth rounders.

I'm pretty set on seven keepers: Roman Josi, Zach Werenski, Roope Hintz, Tomas Hertl, Dylan Strome, Jakub Chychrun, and Alexis Lafreniere, but can't decide on the eighth between Evander Kane, Shane Pinto, Phillip Kurashev, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, and Sean Monahan. In case it matters, my farm consists of Stuart Skinner, Adam Fantilli, Zach Benson, Maklin Celebrini, Kirill Marchenko, Lucas Reichel, Oliver Moore, Mavrik Bourque, and Lane Hutson. Do you agree that I can start to compete again? And either way, who should my eighth keeper be, assuming you agree with the other seven?

He now is asking a follow-up: There have been a couple events since I sent my original question that change things. Top teams are moving their bubble keepers for next to nothing. I have 3 offers on the table I feel like I should take, especially with the draft capital I have.

I'd trade a 3rd round pick for Mark Scheifele, and/or a 4th round pick for Trevor Zegras, and/or a 5th round pick for Jordan Kyrou. I’m thinking of taking all three deals and wondering what your view is, as well as what you think the effect would be on my eight keepers, who you originally had pegged as Josi, Werenski, Hintz, Hertl, Laffy, Kurashev, UPL, plus, if I can't trade him, Strome. My sense is if I make all the deals the three I would not be keeping are UPL, Kurashev, and Strome. I figure I can try and scoop Kurashev and UPL back up in the draft as I’ll still have 5 picks in the first 4 rounds, plus I own a pick in each round the rest of the way beyond round 5. Strome is of less interest to me. I figure I can then look at moving Scheifele and Hertl during the season and should be able to get a 1st or 2nd for each. Let me know what you think.

With 92 players being kept, and another – at minimum – 16 drafted before the third round, I think that is a good price for Scheifele. For Zegras, I'm not so sure. Don't get me wrong – he's probably going to be grabbed by then; however, just because that might be the case I'm not sure it makes him worth you trading for him, while Kyrou is definitely good value in the fifth round. And if you do have to toss back three players into the pile, it'd indeed be Strome and Kurashev, but I don't think UPL would be the third.

UPL should have pretty good value this season given the vote of confidence he received in his deal plus the ability to keep Devon Levi in the minors, such that I'm not sure Zegras would be better to not only have to give value to obtain, but also lose UPL in the process. If you did trade for Zegras, then to me the non-keep would be Hertl. I realize he's very intriguing on Vegas, but he's not young and had injury issues, so if you do make the deal for Zegras, keep UPL and toss back Hertl.

Thinking about Zegras more now, it's not just about getting him, but also being able to keep him. He does have realistic potential to be a cornerstone keeper. As such, I think I can get behind making all three trades, but dropping Hertl instead of UPL.

As for the plan to flip players during the season, if indeed your league is one where players can be sold as such high prices during the all-important period before the playoffs, then I'm all for it. But to me that seems like a disconnect where if indeed you could do what you're proposing to do, why wouldn't other teams as well? Or to put it another way, if players are obtainable so cheaply in the offseason, but can command such huge value during the season, I can't see how others wouldn't adopt a similar strategy as you. Or if they have yet to do so, expect them to sniff it out soon enough. Until then though, if things can unfold the way you say they can, then by all means buy low and sell high, hopefully on the way to a league title. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Justin)

I'm in a 10 team redraft H2H league with cats of G,A,PIM,PPP,SOG,Hits for Skaters and W,SV,GAA, and SV% for Goalies. Starting roster setup for skaters is 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 1UTIL, 4D, and there are 5 bench spots along with two IR+ spots and two IR spots. The utility spot makes positional flexibility slightly less of a concern, but still something to take into account.

I'm likely drafting 4th in a snake style draft and would love your input on some of the guys I'm considering, particularly with my second round pick (i.e., 17th overall). If somehow both JT Miller and Filip Forsberg are available, who would you draft? I'm leaning toward Miller, but the appeal of Forsberg with a bolstered Preds roster is tempting me. Do you feel Forsberg's potential with this improved firepower on Nashville is enough to outweigh his past injury concerns?

For pick 24, I'm leaning Adrian Kempe for his all around value, but I wonder if I'm losing out by not targeting the likes of Kyle Connor, Jake Guentzel, or Jason Robertson for a higher goal/overall point potential rather than an all around stat type player in Kempe. For context, last season Kempe ranked 21st in my league in total skater fantasy points, while Robertson ranked 47th, Guentzel 74th, and Connor 150th, with games played obviously factoring heavily. Lastly, I'm generally interested in Tim Stutzle as a reclamation project. How do you feel about his potential to bounce back? 

It's interesting, as I was wondering – and hoping – I'd get a question like this in the offseason, so I'm glad it did end up happening. By that I mean a question about what I see as draft tunnel vision.

No one, and I mean no one, should have in mind who specifically they'd pick except for the person who is lucky enough to be drafting first overall. Can you speculate on who might be available, and, in turn, start wondering who you'd take? Sure; however, the player you draft is not just a function of who you think is the right pick for your team.

To help explain why, let me segue to poker for a bit. There are levels of thinking in poker, where level one consists of a person who makes decisions based solely on their cards. Level two thinkers make decisions based on that, plus, what they think other players' cards are, and level three thinkers make decisions based on those two factors, plus what they think that other players think they have, and level four thinkers make decisions based on those three factors, plus what they think that other players think they have, and so on, and so on.

There are levels to fantasy hockey drafting too. Level one is drafting based on what you want/need. That is not a good approach because it possibly results in you missing a player who might be a better choice, plus it often fails to fully account for others who have been picked, nor how other teams are shaping up as far as their rosters. Yes, I realize this is not a keeper, so really you only have to consider just a few players who've been picked early on; however, it is a level one approach to draft the guy you want if he's there, since not only might there be better players available, but perhaps, for example, you can get a chance to snag one of the truly elite defensemen when you didn't think that could happen.

Being prepared for a draft is crucial. But there is a difference between being prepared and specifically envisioning who you'll pick. What I like to do is take the DobberHockey Excel Draft List (available when you order the Fantasy Guide), and sort by points, but then color code players based on whether I think I might want to pick them earlier or later, plus other factors like breakout threshold and contract year. While I do have the players listed in order, I'm not wedded to that order. That's because you want to be able to pivot in order to be able to pick the best player all things considered when it comes time for you to make your selection each round. In short, don't be a level one drafter. Good luck!

Question #3 (from Frank)

I'm in a 15 team, keep 7 (for 3 years maximum, any position), season-long points league (i.e., not H2H). Scoring is as follows:

Skaters:
Goals and assists = 1pts (Extra +0.25pts for PP/PK goal)
Hat Trick = 1pt bonus (so 4pts total)
SOG = 0.05pts
HIT = 0.05pts

Goalie:
Win = 2pts
SO = 2pts bonus (so 4 total)
OT/shootout lost = 1pts
Save = 0.05pts

I'm struggling to know when goalies should be drafted in my keeper league, and if i should target volume or quality. We can start 2 goalies and only have 3 roster move per week. How would you approach this?

When it comes to goalies in today's fantasy hockey landscape, there is no such thing as a consensus. With so few truly entrenched starters, and every season several come from nowhere guys, many preach the "Zero G" strategy. I'm not as sold on it though, but let's see what makes sense for your league.

Right off the bat, it's clear that (A) all the goalie categories are volume based, but also (B) there is no penalty for being lousy. Yes, the "best" workhorse goalies like Connor Hellebuyck, Igor Shesterkin, Jake Oettinger, Juuse Saros, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Jeremy Swayman and Sergei Bobrovsky will be huge; but others also could have sneaky value, like Petr Mrazek, Jordan Binnington, Alexandar Georgiev, Stuart Skinner, Ilya Sorokin, and Jacob Markstrom. Looking at the "best" goalie from last season, Connor Hellebuyck would have amassed, by my calculations, 168 points. And looking at two fantasy skater "studs" in Nikita Kucherov and JT Miller, they had, respectively, 165 and 127 points. But Binnington, who had a poor season by most objectively metrics, finished with 148 points! If that's not proof of workhorse goalies being huge, I'm not sure what is.

The key is skaters only get boosts for PPGs and SHGs. If it was PPPts and SHPs, it might be a different story. So few players combine points, hits, and SOG to an extent which would compete with even a lousy workhorse goalie, as shown by Miller, who had a monster stat stuffing season.

Here's the thing – your leaguemates will likely have crunched the numbers too, so it's not like this will be your secret, so to speak. What this shows is the best of the best workhorse goalies are key, but so too are workhorses a notch below, as you don't count SV% or GAA. Given this, I'd put the best of the best goalies in one tier, and aim to get one of them. Yes, this is a 15-team league, so some teams won't be able to snag one of them. But do what you can to grab one, without reaching. Then I'd target another who will play a lot, i.e., be a workhorse, but not be seen as a top dog.

For your other goalie or goalies, I'd look to ones who are on strong teams and should win most of the time they play, like Frederick Andersen or Pyotr Kochetkov, Juustus Annuen, Semyon Varlamov, Casey DeSmith, Spencer Knight, Jonathan Quick, Adin Hill, or Ilya Samsonov. They will be more likely to get wins because of the strong team in front of them, or by playing weaker opponents. In some cases they also could step into the starter role if the workhorse gets injured.

In short, don't be the first to draft a goalie, but do try to get a proven stud. Then wait a bit to get a tier two or thee workhorse. After that, grab guys who will likely do well when they play. Good luck!

Question #4 (from Xavier)

How do you see the PP situation in Anaheim this year and beyond? More specifically, what do you see unfolding for defensemen? I have Zellweger and am wondering what his trajectory might be.

While it is true that Cam Fowler will turn 33 during the coming season, he seems to be aging quite well, including when it comes to the PP. Last season he had the 18th most PPPts among d-men, despite taking the ice not only for just an average of 2:21 of PP time per game, with that amounting to less than half of Anaheim's man advantage minutes. To put those numbers in perspective, the lowest percentage of minutes of anyone who had more PPPts than Fowler was 55.3%, by Brent Burns, with Burns and Morgan Rielly (57.3%) being the only two below 62.2%, plus Fowler's total PP TOI put him 28th, so his PP production was higher than would have been expected given his PP TOI. It's not all great news though, as Fowler's PP IPP was 75.0%, up from 66.7% in each of the two prior seasons. If it had been 66.7% he'd have tallied two fewer PPPts, yet that still would've landed him tied for 20th in PPPts, meaning he'd have nevertheless done better than someone who received the deployment he did but less so. What also helps "legitimize" Fowler's PP production is he had between three and six each quarter, so it wasn't a case of him getting hot for a stretch and then cooling off. His PPTOI held fairly steady too.

What's interesting though is this has been happening as Fowler's 5×5 team shooting percentage has plummeted, from 10.3% in 2020-21, to 9.1% in 2021-22, to 7.7% in 2022-23, to 6.1% in 2023-24. But his PDO in 2023-24 was a miniscule 957, which is unsustainably low even for a team that was offensively challenged like the Ducks.

With the trade last season of Jamie Drysdale, the door is open for Zellweger to be a Duck full time. But will he get put on PP1? If last season holds true to form, quite possibly, as Pavel Mintyukov was given the PP1 reins in Q1, but failed to capitalize after coming out of the gates strong.

The other thing we don't know is whether Anaheim is stingy with PP minutes for its d-men because that is its philosophy, or instead because of the hand of cards it had been dealt at the time. If I had to wager, I'd say the former, since if we look at Anaheim's forwards, they too didn't get heaps of PP time, as no forward took the ice for even 55% of Anaheim's PP minutes.

The good news is that means someone other than Fowler, despite being on PP2, should see close to 50% of Anaheim's PP minutes. The issue though is if the best forwards are on PP1, will PP2 be conductive for whoever is the PP QB to score points? Perhaps, especially since Anaheim's forward ranks, after the retirement of Jacob Silfverberg and exodus of Adam Henrique, are even thinner, and it might just be that the Ducks have two of its d-men on PP2, meaning each of Fowler, Zellweger and Minyukov end up with nearly identical man advantage minutes.

But if you're a Zellweger owner, you are not turning cartwheels about the near-term PP outlook for him, as even if he gets the PP1 QB prize, it likely won't come with ample minutes, at least not if Anaheim's ice time philosophy from last season continues. Even in the longer run, when Fowler ages out of the picture, Zellweger will have to outshine Mintyukov to land the PP1 gig, and, on top of that, hope that by then the team will be more generous will PP1 minutes for its top defensemen. Good question!

Question #5 (from Joe)

In a 16 team, keep 12 H2H league with 25 player rosters (4C, 4RW, 4LW, 6D, 2G start), and categories of G, A, PIM, PPP, SHP, SOG, FW, HIT, BLK, W, GAA, SV%, SHO, I'm planning to keep Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, Seth Jarvis, Martin Necas, Matty Beniers, Cole Caufield, Wyatt Johnston, Scott Laughton, Mikhail Sergachev, Brady Skjei, Pyotr Kochetkov, and Frederick Andersen. Should I accept an offer of another GM's Juraj Slafkovský straight up for my Matty Beniers?

Before I get into answering the question, I'll say a few words about my philosophy regarding trades, since now is probably the second most active time of year for them to occur, other than right before fantasy playoffs. I realize that trades are very normal in some leagues, but I think poolies are often too eager to make too many trades. They are best in one-year leagues, since there is a refresh every season, or in dynasties, since otherwise there could be no chance to get a particular player. In limited keepers though, I think too many teams do too much tinkering.

How do I decide whether to make a trade? I do so if I'm the clear winner, or it is a win-win that does not benefit my trading partner more than me. Of course, it is difficult to be a clear winner in a trade, so that results in me rejecting a lot of deals. In some instances that just causes other GMs not to approach me about trades, which, although not ideal, doesn't mean I can't approach them. But in other cases, it can lead to them coming back with a more favorable offer. Don't be afraid to play hardball.

A win-win trade is where two teams are addressing needs or trading from weakness or strength, such that both teams improve. In cases like that, I want to ensure that I get more benefit than them, if not now than likely down the road. That also brings up another point, which is a trade can be a win in the short term or long term, but rarely both.

Lastly, as I've said many times, I'm generally not in favor of deals which involve more than two players coming and going from each team. That's because it can mask trades that are more unfair than they seem, plus the more players involved the more opportunity for a trade to go wrong. While I know many like to make major trades with 4+ players on both sides, and I'm not saying don't ever do them, do approach them very cautiously and scrutinize them all the more than you normally would.

Okay, back to Beniers and Slaf. Offseason events have increased their values. Gone from Seattle is Dave Hackstol, who believed in spreading ice time, such that top tier talent did not get top level deployment, as the highest TOI per game was Alexander Wennberg, who's gone, with all others stuck below 18:00, while on the PP it was even worse as no forward logged more than 2:38 per game. In his place is Dan Bylsma, who hasn't coached in nearly a decade, but when he last did there were three forwards who each received 2:56+ in PPTOI, and four who had 18:58+ TOI per game. While not a huge leap, it'd certainly be large enough to expect top Kraken players – like Berniers – to see healthy gains. Beniers also got inked to a $7M multiyear extension, showing the team is fully committed to him.

Montreal didn't rest on its laurels either though, bringing in Patrik Laine. Yes, Laine and Slaf are both natural right wings; however, with a top-six that features them, plus Nick Suzuki, Alex Newhook, Kirby Dach, and Cole Caufield, Slaf will skate with talent at ES. Although two of those four figure to be the odd men out when it comes to PP1, chances are it won't be Slaf, who has size and scoring touch. Slaf is also one of the best forwards already in HIT and BLK. Yes, part of that might be a desire to make a strong early impression, and those numbers could drop; however, they still will likely double if not triple what Beniers provides in those categories. Neither is a high volume shooter; however, Slaf's numbers were trending up in that area too in Q4, to go along with 19 points in 21 games. Slaf also is a winger, a more coveted position than center, which is where Beniers stands to be eligible.

I think the only way Slaf isn't the easy pick here is if he somehow doesn't land on PP1. Even then he probably would still be who I'd choose, albeit in a somewhat closer call. Slaf is the guy. I'd also say you are very heavy on Carolina players, which seems like it would be great but they're another team which throttles ice times, so you might look into dealing Jarvis or Svech. Good luck!

Question #6 (from Neil)

I'm in a points only keeper league and trying to figure out my final drop, which I've narrowed to Daniel Sprong (not much hope for big gains, but still seems to find a way to produce), Philipp Kurashev (will a spot beside Bedard still be there), or Connor McMichael (youngest but least proven). Which of the three would you drop and why?

When faced with a situation where you're on the fence about borderline keepers, you want to think in terms of floor and ceiling, plus redraft potential. If someone has the highest floor but the lowest ceiling, that might be enough reason to keep him, due to being able to count on him for guaranteed production. But by the same token, a low floor guy who has a high ceiling also could make sense, especially if you're already otherwise well set enough to stomach the risk. Redraft potential matters, as whoever will be the one you'd be able to redraft the latest might be the one you should drop.

These things having been said, Sprong has shown for two seasons that he can score despite low ice times. Heck, for 2023-24 his P/60 rate was higher than, among others, Mika Zibanejad, Travis Konecny, John Tavares, Connor Bedard, Nick Suzuki, and Vincent Trocheck. Yet his ice time didn't rise, and he's on his third team in three seasons, meaning despite how well he was able to fare neither the Kraken nor Wings opted to keep him, and it's not like both teams were bursting at the seems with top tier forward talent. If somehow Vancouver was hit hard by injuries, Srpong could make noise; but I suspect he will again toil in the bottom six and, at best, do as well as he has the past two seasons.

Kurashev was a point per game player over his last 20 games when skating with Bedard. Yet he is far from a lock to stay in that spot, nor to snag a suddenly coveted PP1 spot. But I suspect he will get his chances and if he makes them count he easily has the highest ceiling. Plus, even if relegated to the second line and PP2, he might be able to produce near or even above a point per every other game given that other teams will focus so much on Bedard's line.

McMichael's outlook was sunnier before Pierre-Luc Dubois entered the picture, as Dubois makes too much money to not be given a top-six spot. McMichael might spend another season waiting in the wings so to speak. But he could outplay PLD, and the Caps are still looking to stay in the playoff picture such that if PLD falters, they could do what LA did and deemphasize PLD.

Highest floor goes to Sprong, highest ceiling to Kurashev, and easiest redraft likely Sprong although perhaps McMichael. To me, that makes Kurashev a keep, and I'd opt for McMichael over Sprong since I think Sprong's run of production might be over, and McMichael likely will get chances to produce. The drop is Sprong, who, as noted, should be the easiest redraft. Good luck!

Question #7 (from Cam)

I'm in a 14-team, points only, dynasty cap league where we're allowed to dress 9F, 4D, 1G for each week. Roster size is capped at 30. We are also allowed to keep up to 5 prospects whose salary doesn’t count against the cap until they play 25 NHL games.

Given my salary situation, I will need to drop two of Thomas Chabot, Timo Meier, Valeri Nichushkin, and Nicolaj Ehlers. My thoughts are that Chabot gets injured a lot and $8 million in a points only league is a tough pill to swallow, yet what if Ottawa makes a leap? I expect a stronger season from Meier, but will it be enough to justify keeping him in points only league? Nichushkin’s troubles are well known; but when healthy, he’s productive at a nice price point. And Ehlers is of course frustrating since he's someone you don't want to drop in case he gets traded or finally receives better deployment, yet has that ship sailed? 

For certain Nichushkin is a risk; however, you have a deep bench and he might be the best of the bunch if he is able to return. As for Chabot, his is expensive, but Ottawa might see him as the Alex Pietrangelo to Jake Sanderson's Shea Theodore, meaning that Chabot is not removed from the picture just yet. He is tried and tested, and the team will regard him as their steadying blueliner, but also likely not deploy him in a purely shut down role. He could realistically hit 50 points if Ottawa connects the dots.

Meier had a scorching Q4, with 24 points in 21 games including 15 goals. He was a PP1 staple as well. Best yet, there was a logical explanation in that it was the first time he and Nico Hischier were on the same line at ES, with it being hugely beneficial to both. I see that continuing, with Meier able to reap the benefits and likely achieve point per game production for the first time in his career.

What can be said about Ehlers that has yet to be said? The Jets seem unwilling to part with him, yet have done him no favors in terms of deploying him favorably. He has never – not any single season of his career – taken the ice for even 50% of Winnipeg's PP minutes, which defies explanation. While part of me thinks he still can thrive if given the chance, as long as he's on the Jets the ingredients are not there for him to succeed enough to be kept.

It boils down to Chabot, Nichushkin, and Meier. I like Meier for sure, so it's really whether you think Chabot won't be put out to pasture by Jake Sanderson, and, as well, if Nichushkin not only will be able to return, but will be welcomed back by the Avs, given great deployment again, and not have his demons resurface. That is a lot of ifs. But, if you can shoulder the risk and have other options on your roster to be able to plug his hole for however long it takes for him to return, the rewards could be huge. If you are not risk averse and can play the waiting game, I'd keep Nichushkin. Otherwise, the second keep I see as Chabot. Good luck!

I'm always looking for mailbag questions, so don't hesitate to sent them to me. You can get do so in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.