Dobber’s Offseason Fantasy Grades: Winnipeg Jets

Michael Clifford

2024-09-06

For the last 21 years (12 with The Hockey News) Dobber has reviewed each team from a fantasy-hockey standpoint and graded them.

The 22nd annual review will appear here on DobberHockey throughout the summer. This is not a review of the likely performance on the ice or in the standings, but in the realm of fantasy hockey both for the season ahead as well as the foreseeable future. Offensively, will the team perform? Are there plenty of depth options worthy of owning in keeper leagues? What about over the next two or three years? These questions are what I take into consideration when looking at the depth chart and the player potential on that depth chart.

Enjoy!

Gone: Rutger McGroarty, Tyler Toffoli, Sean Monahan, Nate Schmidt, Brenden Dillon, Collin Delia

Incoming: Jaret Anderson-Dolan, Mason Shaw, Brayden Yager, Haydn Fleury, Dylan Coghlan, Eric Comrie, Kaapo Kahkonen

Impact of Changes: There wasn't much done to improve the team in the offseason. There were depth pickups like Anderson-Dolan, Shaw, and Fleury but there was no one added that could be a direct replacement for guys like Toffoli, Monahan, or Dillon. Those replacements will come from internal options, so look for guys like Mason Appleton and Vladislav Namestnikov to be important pieces of the lineup.

Schmidt played 63 games last year and Dillon played 77. Neither Fleury nor Coghlan are significant contributors so they should be looked at more as depth options in case of injury or gross underperformance rather than replacements for those that have left the organization.

Connor Hellebuyck now has two backups in Kahkonen and Comrie. Neither will get many starts as long as Hellebuyck is healthy but if the team can be as good defensively as they were for about three-quarters of 2023-24, it makes them streaming options when fantasy managers need a goalie to fill in.

The big offseason move was the trade of a player who has yet to suit up in the NHL as McGroarty was sent to Pittsburgh for prospect Yager. Whatever was going on behind the scenes, it was clear that McGroarty wasn't signing so the Jets went out and got a prospect who could be a good second-line goal-scoring centre. It doesn't change much for now, but it could give the team their first in-house second-line centre since Bryan Little.

Last season's two big acquisitions in Monahan and Toffoli have both moved on. These players leaving the organization should ostensibly open up more ice time for younger players like Cole Perfetti, David Gustafsson, and Rasmus Kupari but this is also a team that has its favourites they like to play. Even with a new coach, there is no guarantee that the younger players will see a bigger role, though there is room to move up now.

The changes in favour of younger players also apply to the blue line. Schmidt was bought out and Dillon is now in New Jersey. This should mean a regular turn in the lineup for Logan Stanley as well as a real chance for Ville Heinola to get into the lineup. However, with Colin Miller re-signing and Dylan Samberg coming off a full season, Heinola might be the odd-man out unless the team runs a seven-defencemen lineup. More on that in a bit.

From the All-Star Game in February onward, Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, Gabriel Vilardi, and Monahan were typically on the top PP unit. After those four, Toffoli was the next-most used forward on the power play, especially when Vilardi was injured. In other words, Monahan and Toffoli leaving opens up a top PP role for Nikolaj Ehlers. Last season, Ehlers had 47 points at 5-on-5, or as many as Filip Forsberg, Kirill Kaprizov, and Brady Tkachuk. If Ehlers can earn top PP minutes all season, he can be a 70-point player. It is a matter of him earning that spot and it not going to Alex Iafallo, Nino Niederreiter, or Perfetti.

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With Scheifele, Connor, Vilardi, and Ehlers in the top-6, there are two spots open with Monahan and Toffoli gone. This should mean a full-time role for Perfetti, but he remains unsigned (at time of writing) and was a healthy scratch down the stretch last season. There is the outside chance of a top-6/top PP role for Perfetti, but he also could be third line/second PP, or not even on the Jets' roster, when the season rolls around.

Ready For Full Time: Ville Heinola

Heinola signed a two-year deal in the offseason, and this should be the year when, if ever, he starts to make his mark. Dillon and Schmidt are gone and the only defencemen brought in were borderline NHLers. When the Winnipeg blue line is fully healthy, Heinola may be the seventh defenceman, but he should at least spend the whole year in the NHL. He may only end up playing half the season as he spends time in the press box, but he should be done with the AHL for now.

We will quickly mention Brad Lambert. He finished second in AHL rookie scoring last season, trailing only Dallas's Logan Stankoven. He might be ready for the NHL but the Jets, once they sign Perfetti, will have 14 forwards signed to one-way NHL contracts. They have the cap space to bury someone, but as with most teams, the player most likely to be buried is the one that can be sent down without waivers, and that means Lambert.

Fantasy Outlook: The Jets were a mid-pack scoring team in 2023-24 but that was with 47 games from Vilardi, Connor missing 17 games, and Perfetti being a late-season healthy scratch. The big problem was the power play, which never really got going and finished 24th by goals per minute in the league. Scheifele, for example, saw his lowest on-ice goal rate with the man advantage in an 82-game season since 2016-17, and that's with power play scoring being higher than it was 5-7 years ago. If the team cannot fix that power play, we may not see point-per-game seasons from Scheifele and Connor once again. Maybe it changes with new coaching, but we just won't know until the games start.

Winnipeg was at its best last season when they were playing lock-down defence and backed by an elite performance from Hellebuyck. They may figure that is their path to success once again and while that would be great for Hellebuyck, and values for some players in plus/minus fantasy formats, it might not be great for their fantasy production.

The Dobber Draft Guide has two Jets players cracking 70 points, none cracking 80, and one of the 70-point players is defenceman Josh Morrissey. There will be good fantasy values here, depending on league formats, but unless they get big contributions from their secondary options, and the team fixes its power play, it's hard to see how this team is much better offensively than the 2023-24 edition.

Fantasy Grade: B- (Last year: B-)

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