Ramblings: 14 Team Mock Draft, A Thought or Two About Scoring Systems (Sep 8)
Ian Gooding
2024-09-08
Filling content during the offseason is difficult. Perhaps the easiest way for me to break the writer's block is to participate in a mock draft. I decided to join a 14-team mock draft at Yahoo, since once of my leagues has 14 teams. Even if Anthony Stolarz's rank is way too high, mock drafts are still good practice for my real drafts later this month. The rankings are never going to be perfect, and you just have to avoid the outliers.
Standard positions: C, C, LW, LW, RW, RW, D, D, D, D, G, G, BN, BN, BN, BN.
Standard categories: Goals, Assists, Plus/Minus, Powerplay Points, Shots on Goal, Hits, Wins, Goals Against Average, Save Percentage, and Shutouts.
Before the draft, I used the random number generator to award me the 13th pick. That's hardly ideal, because it's near the end of the draft, and I have to make two picks fairly close to one another. It is possible to make it work, particularly if you have two players that you have your eye on.
You can view the full results at my personal blog Goods Fantasy Hockey. As always, first number shows round, then overall pick.
1-13 – Matthew Tkachuk (FLA – LW,RW) – Tkachuk was a top-5 pick in many drafts last season, yet he falls a bit this season after sliding below 90 points. His two 100-point seasons have been with different teams, which means he is not heavily linemate reliant. At 26 years of age, Tkachuk could easily reach 100 points again.
2-16 – Elias Pettersson (VAN – C,LW) – There's sort of a high risk/reward here. Pettersson's late-season/playoff performance has some Canucks fans worried that he won't be worth the huge extension that he just signed. However, I picked him at around this spot in one draft last season and he turned out fine.
3-41 – Steven Stamkos (NSH – C,LW) – I've noticed Stamkos falling a bit in drafts. Maybe it's because he's on a new team and may need time to get used to the system. Yet he is coming off a 40-goal season and has reached at least 80 points for three consecutive seasons.
4-44 – Andrei Svechnikov (CAR – LW,RW) – I like Svechnikov for his scoring, but even more for his upside in peripherals.
Four picks, four forwards. If I've done this before, I haven't done it in a while. Before Zero G grew in popularity, I would have usually picked a goalie by now. In recent drafts, I'd usually have picked a defenseman by now. I'll target defensemen next, as you'll see.
5-69 – Noah Dobson (NYI – D) – The undervalued Dobson is at the top of the draft list, so I know exactly what to do here! I'm repeating myself by now in saying how I think his ranking should be higher.
6-72 – Charlie McAvoy (BOS – D) – I was also going to pick a defenseman here, and I think I went with the safest option. I say this because Dougie Hamilton was also available. Dougie has been great in the past in multicategory leagues, but I'm a bit uneasy about him this season. First, I don't know how effective he'll be after being sidelined for most of 2023-24. As well, I don't know if he'll be used on the top power play.
7-97 – Morgan Rielly (TOR – D) – I continue to fill my defense with some reasonable options here. I don't know who else would play the point on Toronto's top power play.
8-100 – Linus Ullmark (OTT – G) – He'll play in more games for the Senators, but his ratios will probably take a hit. It was between him and Jordan Binnington here, and I literally made this pick in the blink of an eye.
9-125 – Martin Necas (CAR – C,RW) – I needed someone to fill the right wing slot (even though Tkachuk and Svechnikov are RW-eligible), and he seemed to be the best available option. I didn't pick two Hurricanes on purpose.
10-128 – Drew Doughty (LA – D) – Best available d-man, and a decent option to fill the fourth D slot.
11-153 – Quinton Byfield (LA – RW) – This is where the real fun in the draft starts. A high-upside play like Byfield makes sense here.
12-156 – Filip Gustavsson (MIN – G) – After regressing significantly in 2023-24, Gustavsson could be a Zero G winner if he bounces back.
13-181 – Evgeni Malkin (PIT – C) – Bench slot time! Now 38 years of age, Malkin's fantasy value has really fallen. He should no longer be considered a point-per-game player. Despite that, I think this is great value for Malkin. If he reaches 60 points again, then this pick makes sense. Band-Aid Boy Malkin has also not missed a game in two consecutive seasons.
14-184 – Pavel Buchnevich (STL – C,LW) – Buchnevich could have easily been picked shortly after pick 100. This is a game of finding the best player available, and he might be it at this point in the draft.
15-209 – Tristan Jarry (PIT – G) – Jarry has had his struggles, but I was considering him when I selected Gustavsson. The fact that he's still on the board at this point means I might as well grab him.
16-212 – Cutter Gauthier (ANA – LW) – I'm not big on rookies until late in single-season drafts. Yet I can get behind this pick because the last-round pick is the easiest one to justify a drop if he's clearly not ready.
Not bad for a 14-team draft, although I have to give an assist to the autopickers and anyone who bailed out at the last minute!
As much as mock drafts might seem repetitive, not a representation of real-life drafts, and filled with autopickers, it's good to get some practice. In addition, you can familiarize yourself with some of the names later in the draft and don't necessarily default to the replacement-level options.
–
I was recently asked a question about my opinion about scoring categories. I won't share the specific question, but it got me thinking about what I would look for in scoring categories when setting up a league. I won't go through all of that today, but instead I'll disclose what was ultimately my answer: Pick scoring categories that the majority of your league can get on board with.
There is no perfect set of scoring categories in a fantasy league – there are just varying opinions out there of what one might be. Want to use plus/minus or shorthanded points? Go ahead, and don't let the naysayers tell you otherwise. Yet I'm also not telling you that you have to use those categories if you think they are too simplistic (+/-) or too random (SHP). It's your league. You decide what makes everyone happy.
I'll share an additional thought about scoring systems. Even if you believe your league has that perfect scoring system, you may want to revisit it every now and then. In one points league, I noticed that goalies were more often finishing with negative points than they used to. To explain, goalies would receive negative points for every goal allowed, and then negative points for every loss. You can probably figure out that the more goals a goalie allows, the more likely they are to lose. A goalie with a really bad start could wipe out a team's entire scoring on a light night and a chunk of a team's entire scoring on a busy night.
Because scoring is up from when this league was formed (just after the dead puck era/season-long lockout), goalies were becoming riskier to start. To make starting a goalie worthwhile, our league decided to eliminate the negative points for losses and keep them for only goals allowed. That way, goalies were not double dinged for bad performances. My larger, more macro opinion is that the increase in scoring and resulting decrease in goalie performance is driving the move toward Zero G. That could mean my own Zero G strategy might not be as effective this season.
–
Don't forget to pick up your Fantasy Guide, if you haven't already. You can always go back to your Downloads folder to download the most updated version of both the PDF and the Excel spreadsheet.
–
Follow me on X @Ian_Gooding and Threads.