Ramblings: Training Camp Questions in the Central Division, Including Johnston, Cooley, Faulk, and More – September 10

Michael Clifford

2024-09-10

My last few Ramblings have covered one training camp or preseason question looming over each of the 32 NHL teams. We have already covered the Atlantic Division, Metro Division, and Pacific Division. Today, we will finish the league by looking through the Central.

Dallas Stars: What is Wyatt Johnston's Role?

Joe Pavelski retired in the offseason and the only player brought in from outside the organization was Colin Blackwell. Mavrik Bourque is expected to be promoted from the AHL, so there are a couple of players that will be in the lineup that were not in 2023-24, but the Stars are largely running back the same roster. That leaves the question as to what Johnston's role will be.

For most of 2023-24, Johnston played a middle-6 role and off the top line of Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson. However, with Pavelski's play showing a clear decline, there were times that Johnston was moved to the top line. That includes some time in the postseason as well where Johnston led the team's forwards in ice time per game. Dallas was not a team to heavily use their top forwards last year as Robertson (18:19) was the only player to crack 18 minutes a game. There is a big difference between Johnston playing 17:30 a game in the middle-6 and 19-plus minutes a game on the top line.

Johnston had a 30-30 season last year and he is heading into his age-21 season. He looks to be on the cusp of being a superstar, but he needs a role commensurate with that talent to be an elite fantasy option. With a lack of hits, he needs to make up the difference in production, and more ice time would help a lot.

Winnipeg Jets: Is This the Year for Nikolaj Ehlers?

In 2023-24, only 14 forwards had more 5-on-5 points than Ehlers's 47. He had more than names like Elias Pettersson, William Nylander, and Jason Robertson. The problem is he wasn't used much on the power play and finished with just seven power play points in 82 games. With a full power play role all season, he would have easily been a 70-point player, and could have pushed for 80.

Ehlers has never had a 65-point season, let alone 70-point effort, but Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli are both gone. Even with Gabriel Vilardi healthy and on the top PP unit, there is a spot for a fourth PP forward, and Ehlers is in the perfect spot to do so. This is a player who will lack in areas like hits and penalty minutes, but has averaged over three shots per game across the last three seasons despite averaging just 16:32 per game. He also averaged 67 points every 82 games without much of a power play role and that meagre ice time.

Ehlers has 80-point upside if he has a prime PP role and can sleepwalk to 70 points with that role and a healthy season. He will be a free agent after the 2024-25 campaign, so he has a bit of extra motivation to show what he's fully capable of. There should be the role for him to do so, but it's up to the coaching staff to give him that chance.

Colorado Avalanche: What is the Health Situation Like?

Few teams in the league have as many offseason question marks around the health of their key players than the Avalanche do:

  • Gabriel Landeskog has missed two years with his knee cartilage surgery but is hopeful to return somewhere around the start of the season. He turns 32 years old in November and has missed a lot of time.
  • Valeri Nichushkin is available to return from his six-month suspension and subsequent time spent in the NHLPA Player's Assistance Program.
  • Artturi Lehkonen was seen on the ice doing light drills as he returns from shoulder surgery but no official timeline or update exists yet.

Those three names, along with Mikko Rantanen, could comprise the top two winger groups for the Avalanche (Jonathan Drouin's usage pending). It is a lot of talent with a lot of uncertainty and that puts a lot of things in flux. If everyone is healthy and in the lineup in November, what does that mean for Drouin? Will Landeskog be anywhere close to the player he was 3-4 years ago? What is the team's reception of Nichushkin? Is Lehkonen's shoulder going to be 100% or will it take him more time to fully heal?

For now, we are truly guessing in fantasy drafts, but there might be some value depending on when these players return. Once we get clarity, that value likely disappears.

St. Louis Blues: Scott Perunovich and Philip Broberg

On the topic of injuries, Torey Krug was trying to rehab an ankle injury that has gotten worse as he's gotten older. Things didn't go well which forced a surgery and he won't play in the 2024-25 season. While that would likely mean a straight line for Justin Faulk to earn top PP minutes, there is some competition.

Scott Perunovich hasn't been able to stay healthy in his own right, but if he's 100%, he can run a power play. The Blues also brought in Broberg via the offer sheets in Edmonton. Not that he'll go right to the power play, but it does give the Blues options when it comes to the top PP guy, so it's not guaranteed to be Faulk.

We will see what the team does in training camp, but having Perunovich shares in dynasty leagues is still a profitable move, I think.

Nashville Predators: Is Tommy Novak The Team's Second Centre?

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Both Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault were signed by Nashville, and both will be in the team's top-6 forward mix. The question is where they slot in. There has been some offseason chatter about Stamkos moving back to centre where he played less of in 2023-24 than in recent seasons. He was a 56% faceoff guy last year, so there is one reason to use him there, but he is also turning 35 years old this winter, so the question of footspeed is a fair one. If they decide to use Stamkos on the wing, does this open a spot for Tommy Novak to be the team's second line centre?

Nashville extended Novak for three more years, so they clearly like the player. The question is whether he is reliable enough to be a second-line centre for a team that is making a push to be a Stanley Cup contender. He could probably slot in easily as the second-line centre in Calgary, Montreal, or Chicago. Whether he can be that for Nashville is another matter entirely.

Novak won't get top PP minutes, so his fantasy upside is capped. He also doesn't hit or shoot much. However, he has averaged 59 points per 82 games over the last two seasons so he can very much be a 50-point fantasy guy even without top PP time. A lot will depend on how the team intends to use him at even strength.

Chicago Blackhawks: Are the Power Play Units Reliable?

Connor Bedard is a lock on the top PP unit. It seems that Philipp Kurashev and Teuvo Teravainen are as well. My guess is that Tyler Bertuzzi is the fourth forward, but the Dobber Guide (available now in the Dobber Shop!) believes it'll be Taylor Hall. There is also Lukas Reichel's potential, and Nick Foligno was often on the top unit last season, even if that was related to the team's lack of depth and surplus of injuries.

All this is to say is that aside from Bedard, it's fair to ask just how reliable the top PP unit is. And that matters because there really isn't enough talent to put together a competent second PP unit, and that unit will also not have Bedard. There is likely to be a steep drop-off in goals per minute between Chicago's two PP units, so drafting guys that stay on the first is paramount. Does anyone really feel good about which guys will be flanking Bedard, though? I don't.

The good news is that aside from Bedard, no Blackhawks player is likely to be a top-100 fantasy pick, so the investment won't be steep. There are players worth taking a flyer on, just be ready to play the waiver wire as the team shifts its ancillary players around.

Minnesota Wild: Marco Rossi and Joel Eriksson Ek

In a Ramblings a couple weeks ago, I mentioned how Joel Eriksson Ek is in a great spot to be drafted, based on his ADP in a few spots. The one caveat to that is the role of Marco Rossi. He had a successful rookie season with 21 goals and 40 points in 82 games, and if he takes another step in his development, he may turn into the top-line centre Minnesota's been wanting him to be for a few years. If Rossi can hold down a spot next to Kirill Kaprizov, that is great news for Rossi's fantasy value and not-so-great news for Eriksson Ek's.

My early guess is the team wants to see if they can make Rossi and Kaprizov work, but that is something written in pencil and not in pen. It may take a few preseason games for some clarity, and things may even change through the season, but top line/top PP minutes with Kaprizov would be tremendous for Eriksson Ek. Moving down to the second line would be suboptimal.  

Utah: Is Logan Cooley Going to Be The Guy or A Guy?

Nick Schmaltz has often been a centre for Arizona and the team re-signed Barrett Hayton. However, Logan Cooley took tremendous strides as a rookie last season and showed promise with Dylan Guenther. No disrespect intended towards Schmaltz and Hayton, but Cooley is the future top-line centre of the team. The question is whether that future is in 2024-25 or later than that.

There is a chance Cooley is a top line/top power play centre for Utah immediately. There is also the chance he's a third line/second power play centre for Utah immediately. It is the difference between being a 40- to 50-point guy and a 60- to 70-point guy. Where he's being used in training camp will influence his low ADP quite a bit.

At the outset, my guess is that Schmaltz is left on the top line, perhaps with Hayton and Clayton Keller. Utah could then insulate Cooley a little bit, using him as a the second-line centre with the likes of Guenther, Matias Maccelli, and Lawson Crouse. Then again, maybe they just move Cooley right to the top line between Schmaltz and Keller and leave Hayton in a lesser role. This team has options with what they want to do with their top-6 and top power play mixes. That is good news for the team but less good news for fantasy owners.

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Nov 18 - 19:11 PHI vs COL
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Nov 18 - 19:11 MTL vs EDM
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Starting Goalies

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  Players Team
OLEN ZELLWEGER ANA
MARTIN NECAS CAR
WYATT JOHNSTON DAL
JAKE WALMAN S.J
JASON ROBERTSON DAL

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  Players Team
JACOB FOWLER MTL
KEVIN LANKINEN VAN
PYOTR KOCHETKOV CAR
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD S.J

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency DAL Players
24.4 TYLER SEGUIN MASON MARCHMENT MATT DUCHENE
21.5 JASON ROBERTSON ROOPE HINTZ EVGENII DADONOV
19.6 LOGAN STANKOVEN WYATT JOHNSTON JAMIE BENN

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