Ramblings: Notes on the Top-25 Players by ADP Plus Some Favourites (Sept 11)
Alexander MacLean
2024-09-11
What I've done in past years around this time is writing a quick note on each of the top 100 players by ADP, and it has generally received positive feedback. However, as I am now a dad of three girls, two of them newborns, I don't have as much time to put together a Rambling article that's three or four times the usual length. This time around, to make it work, I'm going to cover each of the top 50, plus a few of my favourites and targets after that point.
Connor McDavid – The undisputed first-overall pick. What is going to be interesting this year is whether the 44 power play points he has put up in two of the last three years is now the bar for him. If he can approach the 71 PPPs from 2022-2023, then it's not going to be close in value between McDavid and whoever comes in as the second-most valuable fantasy asset.
Nathan MacKinnon – After hitting 111 points for three straight years, MacKinnon has since improved his total each of the last two campaigns. Playing nearly 23 minutes a night and launching 400 shots on net makes it seem like the now-29-year-old has reached his ceiling.
Nikita Kucherov – Right-wing is always a tough spot to fill, and the reigning Art Ross winner gives your team a huge leg up here. He is 31, is due for a little regression, and lost running-mate Steven Stamkos – though he was replaced by Jake Guentzel. I might expect somewhere in the 110-120 range for points as opposed to another year over 140. Just make sure your expectations are properly adjusted.
Leon Draisaitl – Having LW eligibility right off the bat makes him an easy top-five pick. For leagues that count PPPs and FOWs as separate categories you might even take Draisaitl as a top-two player. As it is, he's coming into his contract year so expect another big season.
Auston Matthews – The target is now 70 goals (well that and a Stanley Cup), and if he's healthy the whole year then it's a fun over to bet for the new Captain. He lost Tyler Bertuzzi as a linemate though, so we'll have to see whether the change to Max domi or Matthew Knies is a net positive or negative one.
David Pastrnak – Pasta is one of the top SOG players and didn't miss a beat even without Patrice Bergeron last season. Another season of 110 points and 400 shots seems like a fairly safe bet as long as he's healthy. The addition of Elias Lindholm doesn't hurt either.
Brady Tkachuk – The peripherals monster, his cross-category coverage is unrivaled right now, and in leagues where SOG, Hits, etc are counted he should be a top-five pick. In points-only leagues he's still a good player, but nowhere near worth a top-10 pick.
Mikko Rantanen – He might not even be a top-two fantasy asset on his own team, so this feels a little early for me for a player who is likely capped out at last season's 40 PPPs, 23 minutes of ice time per game, and his 105 points that he has scored each of the last two years. He's probably still a top-10 guy, but I have him closer to 10 than this.
Matthew Tkachuk – More scoring and just a little lighter on the peripherals than his brother, but still a top-tier player all around. He's a little higher on my draft list, but does the shorter summer for him and his teammates affect his volume a little this coming year?
Cale Makar – The top defenceman on the board, and this is right within the range that I would consider taking him. He could easily go as early as sixth in some drafts, and he shouldn't be falling past 12 in any league with defence slots to fill. If you end up with Makar in that range it's easy to still get a top scoring winger in rounds two or three as well, which can give you a step up on leaguemates if you don't have the advantage of drafting in the first few slots of round one.
J.T. Miller – One of the best multi-category players, especially since he still has winger eligibility and wins a ton of faceoffs. He doesn't have the same floor/ceiling combo as other players in this range when it comes to scoring, but the high peripherals bring the overall floor up much higher than most.
Jack Hughes – The complete opposite of Miller when it comes to floor/ceiling, Hughes has the highest scoring upside left at this point in the draft, but doesn't bring any peripherals, and comes with a bigger injury risk to boot. You can shuffle him down a little if you don't have much ability to replace injured players in-season.
Artemi Panarin – Panarin shattered his previous career high in scoring last year, putting up 120 points, and should find himself with the exact same linemates and power play unit this coming year. However, he is turning 33 in October, so the 120 points should be the absolute ceiling, and anything over 100 might have to be considered gravy this year.
Igor Shesterkin – Our first goalie comes in, and depending on your league I could see the appeal of taking a goalie this early. I wouldn't but some people would, and if you're going to be the one taking the first goalie off the board, it has to be Shesterkin. He has the track record, the talent, and the top team in front of him.
Kirill Kaprizov – One of the last players with a real shot at 100 points, and an improving team around him. He won't last much longer.
William Nylander – With a jump up to 20 minutes of ice time per game, Nylander provided fantasy owners with a 98-point season. That might be the high end of what he's capable of producing, but with a floor in the 80s he's an excellent pick here.
Elias Pettersson – EP40 took a step back offensively last year, but upped his peripheral production to 125 hits. If he can get back to 100 points with those same peripherals, then he jumps ahead of everyone up to about J.T. Miller in categories leagues.
Filip Forsberg – Everything went right for Forsberg last season, but it was a high mark in his career, and the ballooned numbers should come back down from the top-10 value season to something more realistic around the top-25 range. He's going to go too early in drafts for me to jump on him.
Zach Hyman – Hyman saw an explosion in production next to Connor McDavid the last two years, but it's worthy to note that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins couldn't keep up his 100-point production from the year prior. Along with McDavid, Draisaitl, and now Evan Bouchard, there isn't too much room for multiple complimentary players to put up top-25 seasons. Hyman could repeat another 80+ point season, but the better odds should be stacked against it, and maybe just as likely that RNH will outscore him despite being available at least 40 picks later.
Sam Reinhart – After a huge jump in scoring thanks to scoring at nearly a 25% clip on the season Reinhart is due for some serious regression, at least back to his 85-point pace from two years ago, and at worst all the way down to his 67-point pace from the season prior. He's not a risk worth a top-20 pick. Top-50 for sure, but there's zero chance he's still on the board by then. Someone will reach.
Quinn Hughes – The reigning Norris winner is the second defenceman on the board, after scoring 92 points last year to go with 200 shots, and 38s across the board in plus-minus, PIMs, and PPPs. There's a debate to be had between him and a few other defencemen in the top-five, but no one will fault you for taking him next after Makar.
Evan Bouchard – One of the contenders to challenge Hughes is Evan Bouchard, especially after his exceptional playoff run where he posted 32 points in 25 games (a season after putting up 17 points in 12 playoff games). His regular season scoring hasn't yet surpassed a point-per-game, but we know he has it in him, and it's likely only a matter of time before he hits 100 points.
Sidney Crosby – I want to dive into Crosby a little more for what we can expect at his age, but that will be a deeper dive in a future Ramblings before the season starts. For now, he's as safe of a bet as they come, and the saying goes that you can't win a league in the first couple of rounds, but you can lose one. Crosby is not going to be the cause of anyone losing a league next year. If he's on your team and you don't win, it was the rest of the roster that was the issue.
Jason Robertson – Can Robertson hit the 110-point pace from two years ago? The underlying numbers say it's possible, and if so then he's a steal outside the top-20. Worst case is he's over a point-per-game player who produces across the board in categories leagues.
Roman Josi – A nice spot to end off the top-25 with my favourite player, and one more of those top defencemen options noted earlier. Rasmus Dahlin and Adam Fox would be the other two in that top tier, and for any fantasy team I would be aiming to have one of that group on my roster. Like Crosby above, Josi is a safe pick, with his high points floor and astronomical shot volume for a defenceman. It will be interesting to see if the extra scoring additions to the roster boost his point totals or take away volume because he isn't carrying the puck quite as much.
Rasmus Dahlin/Adam Fox – Getting either of these two in the 30s is a steal. Fox might give you more points, while you'll get the peripherals from Dahlin, but either way it's a fairly equivalent defenceman to Josi/Hughes/Bouchard who are going 10-20 picks earlier.
Tage Thompson/Aleksander Barkov/Connor Bedard – Maybe the last of the tier of those players with truly elite upside who could return first round value, and the three of them are back-to-back-to-back in ADP as of writing, right at pick 50. If you can grab two wingers early plus one of the top Dmen, then swing one of these guys as your top centre, then you're loaded.
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See you next Wednesday, and if you want to keep up with it you can find me on Twitter/X here, or BlueSky here if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.