The New Jersey Devils said yesterday that defenceman Luke Hughes suffered an offseason shoulder injury but does not require surgery. However, he is still expected to miss 6-8 weeks with the injury.

That timeline of 6-8 weeks means he's going to miss the start of the season and may not return until November. In fantasy terms, that means Dougie Hamilton may have up to a month where he's the unquestioned top power play blue liner for the team, and depending how well they do, he may have just secured the role for the season. That is a huge jump in his fantasy value.

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In yesterday's Ramblings, we went over the case for and against a handful of defencemen in fantasy this year. This is based off ADPs from Yahoo, Underdog, and Fantrax, though things are surely to change over the next four weeks.

Data is from Natural Stat Trick, Frozen Tools, and Evolving Hockey, unless otherwise indicated. Remember that a lot of this is based off ADPs, and not just whether a player is likely (or not) to have a good season. A good season for the seventh centre off the board is not the same as a good season from the 27^th centre off the board.

** Don't forget to grab your copy of the 2024-25 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide! **

Jack Eichel (VGK-C)

Yahoo: 40, C12

Underdog: 46.3, C11

Fantrax: 28.4, C9

Case For: Across the last two seasons, Eichel is over a point per game (1.03) and has averaged nearly four shots per game (3.9). Though he doesn't bring much for hits, he does have 117 blocks in his last 130 games, so he offers a good total to that category despite being a forward. Add that to his prolific shooting, and there is a guy here that can go 40-50 with 300 shots and 70 blocks if he can manage an 80-game season. Despite some losses to the Vegas lineup, there is still Mark Stone, William Karlsson, Tomas Hertl, and good puck-movers on the blue line.

Case Against: Even as he's moved beyond his neck injury, Eichel has had a tough time staying healthy, missing 19 games last year and 15 the year before. It might be fine for head-to-head formats as long as he's healthy in March and April, but that hurts his roto and points value a lot. Jonathan Marchessault is gone and Stone has had trouble staying healthy himself. There is some uncertainty with the Vegas lineup and how they'll perform offensively, and Eichel's own health issues make for some question marks here.

Verdict: Once the top five centres are off the board, there are only so many names that can be top-5 centres in multi-category formats. Eichel is one of them and does not require a top-25 pick. If I'm someone who plays in several leagues – and I am – I would draft him a couple times without going all-in.

Mika Zibanejad (NYR-C)

Yahoo: 75.6, C27

Underdog: 86.6, C19

Fantrax: 55.9, C16

Case For: Even as New York leaned more on the Vincent Trocheck line in 2023-24, Zibanejad still skated 19:45 per game, basically in line with the prior two seasons (19:48). Going into last season, his three-year average shooting percentage was 14.4% but he shot just 11.8%, his lowest mark since 2016-17. The team has been looking for his right winger for years now, and may have found just that in Reilly Smith (depending on how they deploy him). Zibanejad is still a lock for a top PP unit that is usually very good, too. He has also missed just two games across the last four seasons.

Case Against: A shooting percentage drop could also be a sign of age-related decline, as that's something that can go for players, particularly ones that thrive on shooting from distance like Zibanejad does. If Smith doesn't work out as his right winger, the team could still be in trouble in finding someone to complete that line, and that might mean even more ice time going to Trocheck's trio. Zibanejad also saw a shots/game decline of about 10%, and if that persists, he doesn't bring much in multi-cat formats.

Verdict: This is a clear case where ADP matters. I am not taking Zibanejad as the 16^th centre off the board, as on Fantrax; that site has names like Vincent Trocheck and Joel Eriksson Ek going over a round later and that seems like a better idea in multi-cat leagues. However, taking him as the 20^th-25^th centre off the board on Yahoo or Underdog feels like fine value.

Brayden Schenn (STL-C)

Yahoo: N/A

Underdog: 191.6, C52

Fantrax: 233.9, C69

Case For: Few players have the across-the-board consistency that Schenn does with three straight seasons of at least 20 goals, 25 assists, 115 hits, and 110 shots. That includes one season where he missed 20 games, so his 80-game paces over the last three years works out to 23 goals, 37 assists, 152 hits, and 150 shots. If he can do that in 2024-25, he'll blow his ADPs out of the water. Despite a 10-season low in share of the power play time, he was just a shade below 50% and still managed 12 PPPs. He also shot just 11.8% against a three-year average of 16.6%, so he could have had more than the 20 goals he managed.

Case Against: Jake Neighbours took over the top PP role in the middle of the season so even if Schenn had nearly 50% of the PP share, it was lower than that after the All-Star break (around 45%). If he remains largely on the second PP unit all season, he'll be in tough to improve much on the 12 PPPs he has last year, so he'll need a big increase at 5-on-5. The compounding problems are the addition of Dylan Holloway and Schenn's age as he turned 33 years old last month. With more internal competition, he could have his lowest per-game TOI average in a Blues uniform.

Verdict: There is no guarantee Neighbours is the top PP guy all season and Schenn has a very cheap ADP regardless of site. Once the top-50 centres are off the board, he makes some sense in banger formats. In leagues that don't count hits, there are other upside plays to target. 

Matt Boldy (MIN-W)

Yahoo: 73.5, LW24

Underdog: 42.6, W21

Fantrax: 45.4, RW9

Case For: In his three seasons, Boldy has an 84^th percentile goal-scoring rate on a per-minute basis, and an 86^th percentile shot rate. He has seen his ice time increase each season he's been in the league and averaged 19:17 per game from December 1^st onward last season. If he is a 19- to 20-minute winger, including skating on Minnesota's top PP unit, he is a 30-40 player with three shots per game as a reasonable expectation. Of course, there is a lot of upside beyond that, and he could be a 40-goal scorer if all goes well. At 23 years old with over 200 games under his belt, he's just entering his prime, too.

Case Against: In multi-cat formats, things could be tough sledding. He isn't quite the elite shot-volume option that Cole Caufield is, he won't rack up the hits like Timo Meier, and he's not guaranteed to stay on the top line with Kirill Kaprizov as the team looks to deepen its scoring options.

Verdict: Taking him as a top-10 right winger on Fantrax feels steep, though a top-20 left winger on Yahoo is very palatable.

Brandon Hagel (TBL-W)

Yahoo: 112.7, LW33

Underdog: 104.5, W46

Fantrax: 103.7, LW21

Case For: Two seasons ago, Hagel put up 30 goals and 34 assists with over two shots per game. Last season, he managed 26 goals and 49 assists with 184 shots. He has blocked over 100 shots across his last two seasons, so he does provide some peripherals even if he doesn't put up significant hit totals. The 2023-24 season saw Hagel skate a career-high 19:15 per game and for those in leagues with penalty minutes, he was just shy of one per game (79 PIMs in 82 games). Having turned 26 years old a few weeks ago, he is still in his prime and on a team with a number of high-end offensive options.

Case Against: The bane of Hagel's existence the last two years is his power play role. He saw 43.4% of Tampa's PP time in 2022-23 and last season that fell to 25.1%. Even though Steven Stamkos is gone, the team has brought in Jake Guentzel so they can basically run back the same power play with Nick Paul in his net-front-type role, meaning Hagel's power play role is still a secondary one. The team also shot 10.5% at 5-on-5 with him on the ice, by far a career high (9.6% with Chicago in 2021-22).

Verdict: In a season where everything went right for Hagel, he was the 90^th ranked player in standard Yahoo leagues. If he were to get even a 50% share of the power play time, a top-100-ish pick is just fine, but it's hard to see him being a great fantasy value at those ADPs with a 25% power play share.

Oliver Bjorkstrand (SEA-W)

Yahoo: 168, RW51

Underdog: 188.6, W84

Fantrax: 206.5, RW45

Case For: Bjorkstrand is coming off a season where he had a career-high 59 points, managed 67 hits with 186 shots, and did all that while skating just 16:11 per game. He has seen his ice time decrease since making his way to Seattle, but the team has a new coach in Dan Bylsma, so there's no guarantee there'll be the sharing of ice time like there was under Dave Hakstol. Seattle is basically running back the same forward group, save for Chandler Stephenson, and he's not a threat to Bjorkstrand's even strength role, so the right winger has a chance to earn more ice time under a new coach.

Case Against: There is every bit the chance Bjorkstrand is a second-line, second power play guy, which means not much ice time improvement on the 16:11 he got last year. He also registered a point on 78.1% of Seattle's power play goals when he was on the ice; he averaged 53.9% across the prior three seasons. Even if the team has a more heavily-used top PP, and Bjorkstrand is on it, we could see his 25 power-play point total decline. Also, unlike some other wingers, he doesn't have dual eligibility on Yahoo, and that limits his usefulness a lot.

Verdict: In a 12-team league, drafting Bjorkstrand as a fourth right winger seems like it's fine value. There is upside here – not top-50 skater upside but he can be a top-100 in the vein of a 25-goal, 35-assist, 180-shot, 20-PPP winger if all goes well. It seems worth the gamble that he'll impress Bylsma and earn a bigger role than he had in 2023-24.