Ramblings: Impact of Hughes Injury, Potential Gains for Wild and Habs Players (Sep 14)
Ian Gooding
2024-09-14
Some news items to start. Ilya Sorokin is dealing with an upper-body injury from offseason training. GM Lou Lamoriello is unsure whether Sorokin will be ready for training camp but says he should be ready for the start of the season. This doesn't sound like cause to drop Sorokin down your rankings (yet), but the Isles have also brought in veteran Keith Kinkaid on a PTO for insurance. Sorokin is coming off a season with career-worsts 2.99 GAA and .909 SV%, which should be more of a consideration of where to draft him. But like any injury situation, just keep an eye on it.
Staying with the Islanders, they have signed Matt Martin to a PTO. Martin has been a hits machine throughout his career and would be again if he lands a contract with the team he has spent most of his career with. However, he offers minimal value elsewhere in both real life and fantasy leagues, and he would probably be at risk of being healthy scratched as well.
–
Artturi Lehkonen won't be a full participant when training camp opens, and it sounds like he may not be ready to start the season. Lehkonen is already a Band-Aid Boy, having averaged just 55 games per season over the past two seasons. Although his value has increased after being traded from Montreal to Colorado, Lehkonen should be considered more of an option in deep leagues or those with generous IR slots.
–
Evander Kane is scheduled for sports hernia surgery sometime within the next 10 days. Kane seems very unlikely to be ready for the start of the season, and it looks like he could be placed on LTIR and miss considerable time. This isn't really breaking news, as Kane was already reported to be dealing with some sort of significant injury.
–
In case you missed it, Luke Hughes is expected to need 6-8 weeks of recovery time as a result of an offseason left shoulder injury. That timeline means that Hughes should be back in the lineup in late October or sometime in November.
One prominent question this offseason was whether Hughes or Dougie Hamilton would cover the point on the Devils' top power play. That debate should be put to bed for now, with Hamilton's preseason fantasy stock increasing as a result of this news. Hamilton averaged only 35% of his team's available power-play minutes in his 20 games last season, but he had a dominant 2022-23 season that included a career-high 28 power-play points. Only seven defensemen registered more power-play points than Hamilton that season, so he has proven he is able to get the job done. He will still need to be at the top of his game to hold off Hughes, who registered 25 power-play points in his rookie season.
Simon Nemec is another potential beneficiary of Hughes' absence. However, it is worth mentioning that Nemec was injured in an Olympic qualifier a couple weeks ago. Reports are that he didn't suffer a broken bone, but the Devils have been silent on this injury. They were forced to say something about Hughes after a picture surfaced of him at a Michigan football game with a sling on his arm, so perhaps they wanted to keep quiet about that injury as well. The Nemec injury might be a nothingburger, but it's something to keep in mind anyway.
–
The September update for the Roto Rankings will appear on Sunday. I'm happy to say that Bangers Fantasy Hockey will be back providing the preseason rankings again this season. In fact, if you would like to view the rankings before Sunday, you can head over to the Bangers website and become a subscriber, then download the rankings (PIM and non-PIM versions). Or you can wait for them to appear here on Sunday.
Also a heads up: I will be removing penalty minutes from the categories covered. Bangers has a PIM and non-PIM version to its rankings, so I have opted for the latter. The inclusion of penalty minutes in a fantasy league is debatable. Some view it as a measure of toughness, while others see it as contradictory in the sense that a fantasy team should not be rewarded by having more penalty minutes, which forces a team into more penalty-killing situations.
Personally, I think the toughness composition of a team can now be measured in the form of hits and blocked shots, which is a reason that penalty minutes aren't as popular a category anymore. But as I said last week when discussing categories, you be you, so you decide whatever increases the level of enjoyment in your league.
To preview some increases in the rankings, I'm pulling two specific teams that have multiple players that are on the plus side of the changes. These players could be worth looking out for in your draft, as they could be in for big seasons.
Minnesota
All of Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, and Joel Eriksson Ek are climbing up the rankings. I don't know that the Wild make a huge corresponding jump in the standings this season, as 2025-26 will be when they can finally (mostly) free themselves from the salary cap shackles of the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts. Yet you shouldn't have to wait another season for this potential line to be highly effective.
There are signs that this Wild unit could continue a strong second half of 2023-24 into 2024-25. Not long after John Hynes took over as head coach, Boldy's production increased to a point per game during the second half (41 PTS in 39 GP). Hynes rewarded Boldy by increasing his icetime to just over 20 minutes during the final quarter.
It's possible that Mats Zuccarello replaces Boldy on the top line with Kaprizov, which could cut into Boldy's value. However, the Kaprizov – Boldy – Eriksson Ek unit was the most frequent line used based on icetime, according to Frozen Tools. The Wild line combinations will be worth watching at the start of the season.
It's clear that the place to be in Minnesota is Kaprizov's line. Even though Kaprizov missed seven games, he finished just outside of the top 10 in league scoring and within the top 10 in points per game (1.28 PTS/GP). He is a first-round-quality player (in 12-team leagues) who is falling outside of the first round in drafts for some reason. If you have one of those less desirable draft spots at or near the end of the first round (10-12), Kaprizov is a player that you should be targeting.
Montreal
Any of the non-playoff teams from the Atlantic Division in 2023-24 could theoretically take a step forward in 2024-25. Could that team be Detroit, Buffalo, Ottawa, or Montreal? If it is the Canadiens, then Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki will likely lead the charge.
Finally playing more than 70 games in a season, Caufield posted career highs in goals (28), assists (37), and points (65). He was simply dominant in the shots category, finishing in the top 10 in that category (314 SOG) while averaging nearly four shots per game. Caufield also finished with a sub-10% shooting percentage when he usually shoots at over 10%. That could mean more goals are on the way, and you'll want to be there for that. Caufield seems like a strong bet to reach 30 goals for the first time in his career.
Suzuki is practically joined at the hip with Caufield, as the two were on the ice for over half of their available even-strength minutes. Like Boldy, Suzuki benefitted from a strong point-per-game second half (40 PTS in last 39 GP). Not missing a game in four seasons, Suzuki has registered at least 40 assists in each of his last three seasons, demonstrating remarkable consistency for a team in transition. Opponents will need to divert some of their attention away from Suzuki with more scoring depth being either acquired (Patrik Laine) or returning from long injury layoffs (Kirby Dach, Alex Newhook). That could help Suzuki reach 80 points for the first time in his career.
–
Follow me on X @Ian_Gooding and Threads.