The Wild West – Injury Risks – Part Two

Grant Campbell

2024-09-16

We should look at each team in the Western Conference and see what players have been, or could be, an injury risk in 2024-25. This is such a contact sport that any player can be injured at any time, but these players seem to have either bad luck or a style that leads to more injuries than normal.

You can get your injury updates here once the season is back in full swing.

https://dobberhockey.com/category/hockey-home/injury-ward

Credit to nhlinjuryviz.blogspot.com for the historical injuries and tracking the nature of them.

For our purposes, I'm only going to go back as far as 2018-19 as some players get tagged with the band-aid tag early in their careers, but figure it out or have better luck later on. It is easy to see a player who played more than 75 games in 2023-24 and assume that they should play the same if not more but you should always know their history.

Nashville Predators

Filip Forsberg played 82 games in 2023-24, but it was the first time he had played more than 69 games since 2016-17. Since 2018-19, Forsberg has missed 18, 17, nine and 65 games, with an upper body injury (UBI) in four of six seasons. He missed an additional six games in 2018-19 with a lower body injury (LBI). 82 games in 2023-24 is not the norm for him.

Steven Stamkos has missed just five games since 2020-21, playing 81, 81 and 79 games in his last three years with Tampa Bay. He did miss 17 games in 2020-21 and 24 games in 2019-20, so there is a history there with UBIs. He will be 35 years old before the end of 2024-25 and is not a perimeter player, so there is risk moving forward.

San Jose Sharks

Logan Couture missed 76 games in 2023-24 with a groin/LBI issue which is a concern for the 35-year-old coming into 2024-25. Aside from last year and missing 17 games in 2019-20 with an ankle injury, Couture had been relatively safe from injury over the past six seasons. It could be difficult for him to be back at 100% in 2024-25, let alone play 70 games or more.

Mikael Granlund missed seven games in 2023-24 with an LBI and six games with a shoulder injury. In the three years prior, he missed just three, two and three games. He is a compact, smaller player who gets involved (hits/blocks) and perhaps has a little more risk to miss 10-15 games than most 32-year-olds in the league as he kills penalties and averaged more than 20 minutes per game.

Jake Walman has never played more than 63 games in his four full NHL seasons. He missed 19 games in both 2023-24 and 2022-23, with a shoulder injury and an LBI. In three AHL seasons, he never played more than 66 games. Playing 70 games would be a huge deal from Walman in his first year with the Sharks.

Mackenzie Blackwood has played more than 40 games twice in six NHL seasons, playing 44 in 2023-24 and 47 in 2019-20. He has also missed quite a few games due to injury. In 2023-24 he missed 11 games due to a groin issue, 2022-23, 36 games due to knee/LBI injuries and 46 games in 2021-22 due to a heel injury and two for a neck injury. It has to be concerning for a goalie to miss more than 10 games, three years in a row due to lower body injuries.

Seattle Kraken

Jaden Schwartz hasn't played more than 71 games in a season since he played 78 in 2016-17. He has played 71 games twice, in 2022-23 and 2019-20. He has missed 20 games in 2023-24, 11 in 2022-23, 45 in 2021-22, 15 in 2020-21, 11 games in 2019-20 and 13 games in 2018-19. It is fair to say he will play no more than 71 games in 2024-25. He has been an equal opportunist, missing 53 games due to LBI and 40 games with UBIs since 2018-19.

Andre Burakovsky has missed 33, 33 and 24 games in 2023-24, 2022-23 and 2019-20. He missed six playoff games in 2021-22 and 14 games in 2022-23. For a player who is 6-3 and 209 lbs, he is not a physically involved player by any means (hits/blocks) and should play more than he has. I wouldn't bet on him playing more than 65 games in 2024-25 as he can't seem to avoid being injured.

Vince Dunn has one season (2022-23) playing 81 games and another (2018-19) playing 78 games. Outside of that he has missed 23 games (2023-24), nine games (2021-22), 12 games (2020-21) and 12 games (2019-20). He missed six playoff games in 2018-19 and four in 2020-21. Out of 43 injury games documented, 40 were missed with UBI and three were with LBI.

Brandon Montour missed just nine games between 2020-21 and 2022-23 including Covid-related games in 2020-21. Bookending that is 28 games he missed in 2019-20 with a shoulder injury and 16 games in 2023-24 with 14 being from a hand injury. Newly signed for seven years in Seattle, they are hoping that they get 75 games or more from Montour. He is 30-years old now and will be 37 when the deal ends so it's likely he is under that more often than above.

Philipp Grubauer has been plagued with LBIs in three of the past six seasons. He missed 20 games (including six in the playoffs) in 2019-20, 11 games in 2022-23 (his second in Seattle) and 20 games in 2023-24. Through below-average play and injuries, it has allowed Joey Daccord to get some crease time in Seattle and run with it. Daccord should be the clear number one goalie going into 2024-25.

St. Louis Blues

Robert Thomas has a career-high of 16 hits after six NHL seasons, so he is unlikely to get hurt hitting someone else. 2023-24 was his first year where he didn't miss at least nine games because of injury. Outside of 2023-24 (no missed games) and 2020-21 (24 missed games), Thomas has missed between nine and 16 games in four other years in the league. His injuries have been shoulder (12 games), wrist (four), thumb (19) and UBI (5). It's just a guess, but the wrist and thumb were probably the result of getting slashed while stickhandling.

Pavel Buchnevich has a similar story to Robert Thomas just above. He played a career-high 80 games in 2023-24 after never playing more than 73 games in his seven other seasons. He missed 14 games in 2018-19 (one for a concussion) (13 thumb), three in 2021-22 for another concussion, and 18 in 2022-23 (four ankle) (10 LBI) and (four UBI). He is more physical than Thomas but does handle the puck a fair amount as well, which puts targets on their backs.

Justin Faulk is a four-time member of the 100/100 club (hits/blocks) after 902 career games. He is 32-years of age and kills penalties and averages 22-24 minutes per game. He missed 22 games in 2023-24 (17 LBI and five UBI). In the three years prior, he missed just six games (Covid) and two games in the playoffs in 2020-21 for a concussion). I'd classify Faulk as a risk based on his age and the game he plays.

Utah Hockey Club

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Nick Schmaltz played 79 games in 2023-24 which was a career-high and only the third time he had played more than 63 games in eight seasons. Schmaltz missed 43 games in 2018-19 (LBI), nine in 2019-20 (undisclosed), four in 2020-21 (head), 19 in 2021-22 (LBI) and 19 in 2022-23 (16 UBI/three LBI). He is a peripheral player, who has a career-high of 20 hits.

Barrett Hayton seemed to have it all figured out in 2022-23 when he played 82 games and posted 43 points. Outside of that, he has missed 18 games in 2019-20 with a shoulder injury, 16 games in 2021-22 (16 due to hand) and 49 in 2023-24 (32 due to hand again/17 LBI). His injuries last year could prove disastrous to his progression and perhaps to his time in Utah. If he can play more than 65 games in 2024-25, it would be an achievement.

Mikhail Sergachev missed 48 games in 2023-24 due to a scary broken leg. In his six prior years, he missed more than 10 games just once (12 in 2019-20) and had been a rock on the blueline for Tampa Bay. One never knows how a player reacts after a fairly serious injury, but Sergachev might struggle to be 100% in 2024-25 (at least the first 20-30 games).

Vancouver Canucks

Brock Boeser played 81 games in 2023-24, scored a career-high 40 goals, but then missed the crucial game seven against Edmonton in the playoffs with a blood clot. Before that, 74 games was his career-high and he had played more than 71 games just twice in six seasons. He missed 13 games in 2018-19 (groin), 25 games in 2019-20 (ribs), 11 games in 2021-22 (arm/wrist) and eight games in 2022-23 (hand). I would never count on Boeser for anything more than 70 games, with anything more being gravy.

Elias Pettersson appears to have turned the corner after some early injury woes. He missed 11 games as a rookie in 2018-19 (concussion six games/knee five games), 14 games in 2019-20 (LBI) and 30 games in 2020-21 (UBI), which most people in Vancouver figured was his wrist/shoulder. He has missed just four games since 2020-21, but it did come out that he was playing injured for the second half of 2023-24 with tendonitis in his knee. He plays a more physical game than most people realize (125 hits/71 blocks).

Thatcher Demko has had his share of injuries since 2018-19. He missed nine games as a rookie with a knee injury, six games in 2019-20 with a concussion, 35 games in 2022-23 with an LBI and then 14 games in 2023-24 with a knee injury which cost him 12 playoff games and possibly the start of 2024-25. The worry for me with goaltenders and injuries is recurring issues with the lower body and Demko is well down that path. 

Vegas Golden Knights

Jack Eichel had a well-documented neck issue which might have started in 2019-20 and played out through 2020-21 when he missed 33 games and decided on having surgery to fix the issue. It caused a rift between the Buffalo Sabres and himself and resulted in Eichel being traded to Vegas. In 2021-22, he missed 48 games but did play 34 games with Vegas, just none in the playoffs. In 2022-23 his neck appeared to not be an issue, but he did miss 13 games with an LBI. In 2023-24, Eichel missed 19 games with a knee injury. He hasn't played more than 68 games since 2018-19 and I would be hesitant to think he will play more than that.

Mark Stone has had recurring back issues for a number of years and has missed quite a few games because of that. There has to be some load management involved for the Golden Knights as well as salary cap relief through Stone's LTIR, but the bottom line is that Stone can't be trusted to play any more than 60-65 games. He hasn't played more than 65 games as a member of the Golden Knights in a single season. In 2023-24, his official injury for missing 26 games was his spleen.

William Karlsson used to be a bit of an iron man. Between 2015-16 and 2018-19, Karlsson missed just two games and played 82,82,81 and 81 games consecutively. In 2019-20 he hurt his finger and missed 19 games followed by playing every game in 2020-21. In 2021-22, he missed 15 games with a foot injury and in 2022-23 played 82 games again. Injury struck again in 2023-24, when he missed 12 games with an LBI. This is the flip year, where he should play 82 games again, but buyer beware.

Tomas Hertl has avoided injuries for most of his career. He has missed significant time twice (both knee injuries) in the past seven seasons. He missed 22 games in 2019-20 and 28 games in 2023-24. Other than the knee he has played 75 games or more for much of that time.

Shea Theodore is entering into the final year of his contract in Vegas and is coming off of missing 27 games in 2022-23 with a leg injury and 35 games in 2023-24 with an UBI. It won't help him in re-negotiations or in free agency if he doesn't play at least 70 games in 2024-25. I'd expect him to suit up and play in games, which might have been 50/50 in the past.

Alex Pietrangelo played 80 games in 2021-22 but has missed time in every other year since 2017-18. In 2018-19 he missed 11 games (hand), in 2020-21 he missed 12 (hand), nine games in 2022-23 (undisclosed) and in 2023-24 he missed 18 games split between 13 (illness) and five (UBI). He blocks a lot of shots (164,177 and 161 in the past three years), so there is always added risk for him (see hand injuries).

Adin Hill has never played more than 35 games which he did in 2023-24. He has been plagued with LBI since 2021-22, missing 39 games that year, 18 in 2022-23 and 22 in 2023-24. After leading Vegas to a Stanley Cup in 2022-23, he was able to play in just three playoff games in 2023-24. He's tempting to target as a top-tier goalie, but it's unlikely he will regularly play 50 games or more.

Winnipeg Jets

Gabriel Vilardi has had back issues that go back to his OHL days. He played just 49 and 32 games in his last two OHL seasons (2016-17 and 2017-18) and then just four games in his first pro year in the AHL in 2018-19. In 2019-20 he was able to play 32 AHL and 10 NHL games. He only missed two games as a rookie in 2020-21, but missed 18 in 2021-22 split between the AHL and NHL. In 2022-23 he missed 10 games with an LBI and was a healthy scratch nine times. In 2023-24, his first year with Winnipeg, he missed 35 games due to knee (18), LB (two) and spleen (15) injuries. I wouldn't earmark him to play anymore than 55-65 games until he proves he can.

Nikolaj Ehlers had a disappointing 2023-24 but he played all 82 games for the first time since 2017-18. In fact, it was only the second time he had played more than 62 games since then (he played 71 in 2019-20). Many people hoped that if he could just stay healthy he could put up a point per game pace in 80 games and he might very well one day but he had 61 points (0.74/g). He has missed 20 games in 2018-19 (shoulder), nine games in 2020-21 (UBI), 19 games in 2021-22 (knee) and 36 games in 2022-23 (hernia). The hope is now that he wasn't 100% in 2023-24 and now with a full campaign behind him he can produce at a better level.

Cole Perfetti had his least injury-plagued season in 2023-24 where he missed 11 games (healthy scratch). In 2022-23 he missed 31 games and the playoffs (UBI/suspected to be shoulder). In 2021-22 he played just 18 games for the Jets and 17 games in the AHL and in 2020-21 he played just 32 games in the AHL. He is a bit of a perimeter player who needs to prove he can survive at the NHL level and be productive.

Thank you very much for reading and if you have any comments, please leave them below or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15

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