It is full-on fantasy hockey draft season now. NHL rookie camps are in the rearview mirror and regular training camps start later this week. There are fewer than three weeks left until the season starts with the Stars and Panthers kicking things off in Europe on October 4^th. Anyone looking to brush up on the upcoming fantasy hockey season would do well to check out the 2024-25 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide which is available for purchase here. It has depth charts, projections, prospect updates, league-specific articles, and a whole lot more. It is a digital-only copy, which allows Dobber to update constantly right until the season starts, so help support what we do by grabbing yours today!

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Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins put an end to the ceaseless rumours of his future with a two-year contract extension:

THE CAPTAIN IS COMMITTED.

The Penguins have re-signed Sidney Crosby to a two-year contract extension, running through the 2026.27 season and carrying an average annual value of $8.7 million.

Details: https://t.co/13N1vhbR2S pic.twitter.com/zgLb01EpgY

— Pittsburgh Penguins (@penguins) September 16, 2024

It includes a full no-move clause, too. This covers his age-37 and age-38 seasons, so we'll probably be back in the rumour mill 18 months from now, but at least this can be put to bed. At least he made it easy on salary cap fantasy managers.

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One big domino for the Red Wings was knocked down as Lucas Raymond signed an eight-year deal for a little over $8M AAV. He certainly turned some heads in 2023-24 and is looking to build on his breakout season. It is a bit sketchy as to his value in cap leagues, though. The peripherals, for now, are fine but not great and he needs to be more than a 70-point player with modest peripherals to really be worth that cap hit.

Detroit also signed Jonatan Berggren to a one-year deal for $875K.

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Some confirmation on the Islanders' top line, at least for now:

Duclair will start with Horvat and Barzal at camp, per Roy #Isles

— Stefen Rosner (@stefen_rosner) September 16, 2024

We will see how long this lasts.

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Speaking of projections, the work continues on mine. I am not going to lie, I'm a little behind right now because we've had absolutely gorgeous weather over the last month and I've been spending more time with friends, family, or just spending time out of the house. The good news is that I'm nearly done with forward projections and want to start talking about them today.

For this Ramblings, I am going to focus on even strength goal scoring. While power play production is a crucial part of the fantasy upside of most fantasy skaters, even strength production is the foundation. Without good/great EV numbers, players cannot reach elite fantasy status.

With that in mind, here are my preliminary EV goals projections. A few notes on these:

• Rookies are not included yet – those skaters require a separate calculation that will be completed later.
• All players are projected to play 82 games, and this approach serves two functions. First, it helps in demonstrating a player's upside if things go well. Secondly, it helps remove bias I may have for players that have been injured in order to mine for fantasy value.   
• There is a focus on a player's role and expected line mates. For example, these projections assume Alexis Lafrenière will play the wide majority of his even strength time next to Artemi Panarin. If he starts training camp on the Mika Zibanejad line, that changes the equation.
• Age adjustments haven't been done yet, but I will get around to them. While they do matter, the biggest impacts are at the extremes, particularly those well over the age of 30. Otherwise, it will only marginally improve/decrease a goal projection when looking at the entire league.  

Alright that's enough rambling (pun 100% intended). Let's talk about some of the projections. Data from Natural Stat Trick and AllThreeZones.

The Top

There isn't much surprise about the top of the list. Auston Matthews leads the way, David Pastrnak isn't far behind, and Jack Hughes rounds out the top-5:

It might surprise some people to see Mikko Rantanen just behind Nathan MacKinnon but over the last two seasons, MacKinnon has scored fewer than three more EV goals per 82 games than Rantanen. The latter is an efficient shooter and that matters a lot.

The 30-Goal Club

Coming in at exactly 30 even strength goals (rounded up or down) is a quartet of players that are each very interesting for the upcoming fantasy season for different reasons:

Kyle Connor has reached 30 EV goals just once in his career, but he had 28 in 71 games in 2019-20 and 29 in 65 games last season. He also had a career-high EV shooting percentage in 2023-24, and the assumption is some pullback is coming. This shows us that he absolutely has 40 goals in sight this season, and that also puts a point-per-game season on the menu.

Sebastian Aho has never reached 30 EV goals, but he did have 25 in 68 games in 2019-20 and 26 in 75 games in 2022-23. While the 82-game projection is one reason for him getting to 30 EV goals this season, the other is the assumption of a rise in ice time. He posted 15:16 per game in EVTOI after the Trade Deadline last season – that would be a career-high in a full season – and that was with Carolina comfortably near the top of the Eastern Conference. With the forward group thinned out, the assumption is the top of the lineup sees more ice time, Aho included.

Alexis Lafrenière might be one of the most fascinating cases in fantasy this season. A season of 30 EV goals would be four more than in 2023-24, and the big reason is an assumption his shooting percentage rises a bit. The issue with his fantasy outlook is that as long as he remains on the second PP unit, 70 total points should be seen as his ceiling rather than an expectation. I think some fantasy drafters are assuming he'll hit 70 total points as he continues to grow but without that top PP time, it's hard to see it happening. All the building blocks are there for a high-end fantasy season, but he needs the PP role to make it happen.

Clayton Keller hit 30 EV goals in 2022-23 but fell to 24 in 2023-24 as his shooting percentage declined. Improvements from the young forwards around him, healthy centres in the lineup, and an improved blue line have him bouncing back and if all goes right, I think he can get to 90 points this season.

Aside from Alexis Lafrenière, there are a number of younger players that are expected to make a jump in their 82-game even-strength goal scoring when compared to the last two seasons:

While Quinton Byfield landing at 19 EV goals might seem disappointing, this is a reminder that age adjustments haven't been made yet. When those happen, he probably lands around 20-21 EV goals. If he scores 21 EV goals in 2024-25, that would be a 50% increase from last season, so there is probably a large jump coming, but maybe one more year before he really takes off production-wise. We'll see where he lands when projections are done, but I suspect expecting more than 70 points is expecting too much.

Similarly, it might seem disappointing to see Guenther at 17 EV goals, but I wager the age adjustment has him between 19-20 EV goals. Last season, he paced for under 15 in 82 games, so there is a sizable jump expected. He is also expected to be a significant power play contributor, so I wager when all is said and done, his goals projection is around 30.

I am not sure what to make of Alex Holtz here. The biggest reason for the increase is the assumption he finds a consistent middle-6 role in Vegas, something he never had in New Jersey. So, if he can play 12-13 EV minutes a game, maybe a jump is in the offing. If he's closer to 10 minutes a game like last season then there won’t be.

As a Habs fan, I am extremely excited about Juraj Slafkovsky. That is why it may be jarring to see him projected for 17 EV goals, but his issue is shot volume. Even next to Nick Suzuki, he averaged just a shade over 6.0 shots per 60 minutes at even strength which is the rate of a low-end third liner. The assumption is he sees a shot-volume rise, but there is a long way to go before his EV goal scoring takes a big leap. He is like Byfield in that sense.  

Seeing Matthew Knies project for 21 EV goals perked my ears (eyes?) up a bit. The assumption in the projection is that he effectively takes over Tyler Bertuzzi's role from last season, and that means adding about 1:40 per game in EVTOI. If that happens, and then we adjust for age and add maybe 1-2 power play goals, that puts 25 goals well within reach. If he can have a 25-goal, 30-assist season, which is probably where his final projection lands, while adding over two hits per game? There is a multi-cat gem in the making here.

Let's finish off with the two players with the biggest drops:

It isn't really hard to figure out why Anders Lee is expected to drop here. The two reasons are declining shooting percentages (age- and injury-related) and a reduced role. He saw a per-game EVTOI decline under Patrick Roy and that's likely to continue with Anthony Duclair being brought in. Add the drop in ice time with a declining shooting percentage and here we are.

Tyler Toffoli is an interesting case. Assuming Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith are on the roster, with an improved blue line (that's a low bar), the San Jose Sharks should be better in 2024-25 than whatever it was they did last season. It is still a step down from either New Jersey or Winnipeg last year and unless they give him a lot more ice time than I'm assuming (about 14:20 per game in EVTOI), then it could be tough sledding for Toffoli to get back to 30 goals.

Alright, I'll get back to the forwards when I have everything done, which will probably be closer to the start of the season.