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The Buffalo Sabres opened training camp basically with their expected NHL roster in one group. That group included Jiri Kulich:

Jiri Kulich is with the Sabres' first practice group, which looks like the team that they're going to bring to Europe.

Thompson, Tuch, Peterka, Quinn, Cozens, Benson, McLeod, Zucker, Greenway, Lafferty, Malenstyn, Aube-Kubel, Krebs, Greenway, Dahlin, Samuelsson, Power,…

— Lance Lysowski (@LLysowski) September 18, 2024

It is just something to keep an eye on. We saw Zach Benson surprise a year ago, so maybe they find a way to keep Kulich on the NHL roster.

Rasmus Dahlin also left practice early and did not return. Hopefully they are just being overly cautious but we'll update whenever we hear more.

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An injury to keep an eye on in Pittsburgh:

Per @PenguinsPR, Erik Karlsson is day-to-day with an upper-body injury.

— Pens Inside Scoop (@PensInsideScoop) September 18, 2024

It makes me wonder about value from the blue line in Pittsburgh. Erik Karlsson is often being drafted as a top-20 defenceman, and I do wonder if there's some value to be had with Kris Letang.

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Updates from Edmonton on Darnell Nurse and Evander Kane:

Bowman confirms Kane will have surgery soon.

Says Nurse will be ready late in training camp. They're being cautious.

— Ryan Rishaug (@TSNRyanRishaug) September 18, 2024

Kane won't be back for a while but it looks like Nurse should be good to go relatively soon. We know how teams get about injuries, though.

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The Dallas Stars announced that forward Jason Robertson will miss most of training camp due to an offseason foot surgery, though he's expected to be ready for the start of the season. They said it was for a cyst, so it doesn't appear it's anything structural, but we'll wait to see when he actually returns.

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The Anaheim Ducks announced their training camp roster, and if we want to read the tea leaves, it looks like the top lines from each of the three groups, and the second line from Team 2, will be the cursory lines the team wants to run:

The teams for tomorrow's Training Camp practices ⬇️

Team 1 – 9:15 a.m.
Team 2 – 10:45 a.m.
Team 3 – 12:15 p.m.#FlyTogether | @ochealth pic.twitter.com/eetDlBXWaZ

— Anaheim Ducks (@AnaheimDucks) September 18, 2024

Colour me intrigued by a second line of Trevor Zegras, Troy Terry, and Mason McTavish. More on Terry later in these Ramblings.

Also, Pavel Mintyukov will not start camp due to injury and is considered day to day.

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Back on Tuesday, I started going through my projections and those Ramblings covered even-strength goal scoring among some forwards. The projections have been slower coming than I would like, but I have finished the forwards. Let's take the rest of these Ramblings to talk about even-strength point production among forwards.

As a quick refresher about these projections, here are a few guidelines:

• There are no rookies included yet. Those are a separate calculation that will be added later.
• Assumptions are made about line mate quality. Examples of this include assuming Mikko Rantanen will spend the vast majority of his EV time on ice with Nathan MacKinnon, and that Timo Meier spends half his EV time with Nico Hischier.
• All players are projected for 82 games played.
• Age adjustments have yet to be made.

With that in mind, let's talk about some of them.

Nikita Kucherov

The very top didn't surprise me – Nathan MacKinnon and Connor McDavid are first and second – but it did surprise me to see Nikita Kucherov in a tie with David Pastrnak:

Kucherov's expected decline in EV production is largely tied to his assists as he had a career-high 60 EV assists last season. He had cracked 50 EV assists in one other season (54 in 2018-19) and his prior two seasons saw an average of 41 per 82 games. When his power play projections come in, he'll likely be in the 120-point(ish) range, which is still a phenomenal season. It is just that expecting him to repeat 140-plus points is expecting a lot.

Evolving Centre Tiers

In early drafts I have been doing, the Vancouver Canucks skaters have been going earlier and earlier. It isn't just my imagination, either, as @PuckOracle on Twitter has kept track of ADPs since July and all of Elias Pettersson, J.T. Milller, and Quinn Hughes have been going earlier in drafts now. In fact, Pettersson has moved up about a full round by ADP with Hughes just shy of that:

Centers pic.twitter.com/nyMqBz98Kb

— Fantasy Hockey Oracle (@PuckOracle) September 11, 2024

I bring this up because there is a trio of centres in my projections all coming in around the same even-strength point mark:

Let's talk about these separately.

It might be a surprise to see Thompson at this level, given his 2023-24 season, but he had 26 EV goals in both 2021-22 and 2022-23. He also had 33 EV assists in 2022-23, so seeing 35 here isn't preposterous. The reasons expected for the jump are two-fold: an expected ice time rise, and a much-improved Buffalo offence under Lindy Ruff. If he can get to 60 even-strength points, it easily puts a point-per-game season on the menu. A lot of this is banking on a big offensive turnaround under their new coach, so anyone skeptical of the projection is more than justified.

Tim Stutzle getting to a career-high 64 EV points kind of feels right. We found out over the summer that he was playing with a wrist injury for nearly the entire 2023-24 season, so that effort can be discounted a bit. Back in 2022-23, his 82-game pace for EV point production was 61. Seeing him at 64 might seem a bit high, but he is heavily-used, the team is in line for an offensive rebound with everyone healthy (and not suspended), and he's just entering his prime. Expecting him to be at least a point-per-game player seems reasonable.

The one that might really raise some eyebrows is Pettersson, but here are the issues:

• Pettersson had a large EV shot volume decline in 2023-24 – about 25% on a per-minute basis from the year before – and while he can be expected to have a very high shooting percentage, when we're talking about elite fantasy performers, volume matters a lot.
• He saw a small EV ice-time decline last season as well.
• Vancouver shot 14.9% with Pettersson on the ice at even strength, a career-high.

At a projection of 64 EV points, Pettersson would easily clear last season's total of 56. However, if he puts up 64 EV points, it likely puts a 100-point season out of reach, or at best it would be his ceiling. Considering he's going as a top-30 pick now in some drafts, there is likely better draft value with Thompson or Stutzle anywhere from 2-3 rounds later.

There is a trio of young forwards that catch the eye because, like the centres listed above, they're all in a similar grouping together:

Again, let's go through these one by one.

Last season, Bedard's 82-game pace for EV points was 48, finishing with 40 in 68 games overall. The increase shown here is largely due to a (presumed) improvement of the team around him. In all likelihood, once his age adjustment is completed, because of the nature of his profile (a genuine superstar), his projection probably gets close to 60 EV points. It will obviously get posted once projections are completely finished, but my guess is that when the power play portion is finished and the age adjustment is made, Bedard is somewhere in the 90-point(ish) range.

Lucas Raymond had 56 EV points last season, so seeing him with 54 here is a bit jarring. Once we adjust for his age, it's probably closer to 60 EV points than 55. The two issues here are him shooting 19.5% at even strength last year (averaged 12% in his first two seasons) and that the team doesn't really have a good offensive centre for him to play with unless he's with Dylan Larkin. The assumption is Raymond spends about 60% of his even strength time with Larkin, but that remaining 40% is a big drop in quality from the top line.

It is really interesting to see Byfield at 53 EV points. He was written about in the Tuesday Ramblings mentioned earlier, and the expectation was that expecting more than 70 total points, including power play, was expecting too much. However, projection for 53 EV points puts 70 firmly within range when including the power play. The underlying assumptions are that he sees an ice-time rise and shot-volume rise while the team scores a bit better around him. When projections are finalized, he'll almost certainly be over 70 points.

Lastly, we'll go through a trio of wingers who are all very different players but all project for just under 50 EV points:

The projections expect Anaheim to be a lot better offensively thanks to more puck-movers on the blue line, a healthy Trevor Zegras, a full season from Leo Carlsson, and the introduction of Cutter Gauthier. Troy Terry had 49 EV points in 70 games two seasons ago and had 41 in 76 games last season. I will be honest: 49 EV points is probably a little light and he'll likely project for over 70 points when all is said and done.

Timo Meier makes for an interesting player this season. While his per-minute production has declined from the end of his San Jose era, he also lost a lot of ice time. The assumption is that the team around him will be much better in 2024-25 than 2023-24 and that, with a small ice time increase, will boost his production.

Over the last two seasons, Jared McCann has averaged 45 EV points every 82 games. The small jump here is attributable to an expected ice time rise under new coach Dan Bylsma, so if that doesn't happen, he'll probably land somewhere around the 43-45 EV point range. All told, he's easily a 60-point guy if he stays healthy, but there are points left on the table if he's again in the 16- to 17-minute range.