Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

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The 2024-25 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide is available in the Dobber Shop! The nice thing is that because it is digital-only, updates can be made as news changes, and there’s certainly been a lot of that this week.

Our French version of the Guide, Le Guide des Poolers, is also available via this link.

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1. The Utah Hockey Club has secured a big part of their future, agreeing with Dylan Guenther on an eight-year contract with a cap hit of just over $7 million. This AAV and term serve as proof that Utah really believes in the 21-year-old over the long haul after just 78 NHL games. By also acquiring Mikhail Sergachev and his $8.5 million cap hit earlier this offseason, Utah is also showing it is ready to compete on a serious level in a way the Coyotes couldn’t.

In his second NHL season, Guenther was already being used on the top power play. His icetime should also increase over the 16 minutes that he averaged in 2023-24, which should allow him to build on his output of 18 goals and 35 points in 45 games (a 64-point pace over 82 games). Guenther should already be rostered in keeper leagues, and he should also be a late-round flier option in standard-sized single-season leagues. (sept21)

2. One more RFA is has now been signed, as Dawson Mercer and the Devils have agreed to a three-year extension with a cap hit of $4 million. Production-wise, Mercer took a step back in 2023-24, finishing with 20 goals and 33 points after a very promising sophomore season of 27 goals and 56 points the season before.

Mercer’s overall icetime and power-play time increased a little bit in 2023-24, but he simply did not have the same quality of linemates. He has never been regularly used on the Devils’ top line, and it seemed as if he was used in a bottom-6 role at times in 2023-24. As a result, his shot rate dipped from 2.0 SOG/GP in 2022-23 to 1.6 SOG/GP in 2023-24. Another concerning number is his assist total, as only six of his 13 helpers were primary assists. Again, better linemates could help, which would improve his relatively low 7.7% 5-on-5 shooting percentage. But so far in his young career, Mercer seems like the kind of player who won’t drive play on his own.

One positive regarding Mercer is durability. In three NHL seasons, he has yet to miss a game. (sept21)

3. One type of fantasy hockey that seems to be under-utilized (at least by my observation) is the auction league. Perhaps that is because fantasy hockey leaguers that want to use dollar figures often choose the salary cap league format.

As realistic as salary cap leagues are, auction drafts have the advantage of assigning dollar values to players based on what those in the league are willing to pay. As well, they are easy to learn if you’ve already played in an auction-style fantasy baseball or fantasy football league.

Follow the link for more… and to check out the top players that I’ve won in auction and why I targeted them. For example, Jesper Bratt below: (sept21)

4. In this league, we have a rule where you can simply match any bid and not bid at least 10% higher than the last bid if the player was on your roster last season. That’s how I was able to re-sign Bratt, who was easily one of the auction’s higher-priced players.

Bratt continued his climb toward fantasy hockey stardom in 2023-24, finishing with a career-high 83 points for his first point-per-game season. He also averaged three shots per game for the first time in his career, a number that was helped by an icetime increase of nearly two minutes per game to 19:18 TOI. He also does this while playing right wing, which I would consider the shallowest of the three forward positions. Bratt is also a strong enough option to make the recent Top 10 Fantasy Right Wingers.

What I like about Bratt is the fact that he projects to be fairly consistent relative to 2023-24. His overall shooting percentage of 10.9% is a bit lower than his career average, although his 5-on-5 shooting percentage of 10.7% is a bit higher than the career average. A secondary assist percentage of 35.7% means that he could creep up a little in the assist department. Overall, another season of point-per-game numbers seems fairly realistic. (sept21)

5. Thatcher Demko worked out on the ice on his own before the start of Canucks’ training camp on Thursday. However, he did not participate with his teammates afterward during main camp and would not offer a timetable for his return.

The positive from all this is that Demko did not appear to look the part of an injured goalie in his training, but I am not a doctor or even a goaltending specialist. Demko also sounded certain that he was headed in the right direction with significant progress over the last 2-3 weeks, and he even sounded optimistic about a full recovery soon.

Demko also revealed that this particular injury is unique, which would explain why a timeline isn’t possible. If we have nothing to compare it to, then we don’t really know when Demko will start the season. With all of this still so very unclear, avoid reaching for Demko in drafts and be prepared to start the season without him if he’s already on your roster. Demko has an ADP of 55 at Yahoo, which is a bit too high for my liking. In fact, he should be drafted outside of the top 10 goalies until we become more clear about a return date.  

For now, playoff hero Arturs Silovs should be drafted in most leagues, while Jiri Patera is projected to be his backup. The Canucks are reportedly still interested in signing free agent goalie Kevin Lankinen, who at minimum would be a backup and could even push Silovs for starts while Demko is out. (sept20)

6. The Red Wings finally took care of business with Moritz Seider, signing him to a seven-year contract with an AAV of $8.55 million. Seider reportedly took one year less to be slightly lower than Dylan Larkin for AAV. The $8.7 million AAV in Larkin’s contract seems to be the benchmark that the Red Wings had set internally.

Seider is the Red Wings’ most important defenseman and a cornerstone player on their team, as he has demonstrated that he can do it all. Seider finished second in the league in hits and blocks (424 HIT+BKS) in 2023-24, and he has been the only player since 2010 to finish with both 200 hits and 200 blocks in a season. Add that to his ability to reach 40 points in each of his three seasons, and you have an ideal defenseman for roto leagues.

The offseason departure of Shayne Gostisbehere could result in Seider regaining the top power play again for the Red Wings, as he dipped below 50% of his team’s available power-play minutes in 2023-24. Offseason free agent signing Erik Gustafsson might be more of a true power-play specialist than Seider, but he has been a healthy scratch risk throughout his career due to his defensive play. Seider, meanwhile, has not missed a game in his three NHL seasons, and now we don’t have to worry about a contract holdout breaking that streak. (sept20)

7. Jeremy Swayman won’t report to training camp until a contract is agreed upon. Bruins GM Don Sweeney said he believes that they’ll have a contract done by the December 1 deadline for RFAs to be able to play in 2024-25. Aiming for December 1? That sounds like the two sides are still far apart, although he might be subscribing to the “under promise but over deliver” theory. Still, that isn’t reassuming for anyone who drafted Swayman early now that he has the starter job all to himself.

I don’t think I’d downgrade Swayman as far as I would Demko, because one phone call is all that is needed to end this stalemate. As appealing as Swayman might be, I’d suggest drafting him outside of the top 5 at the moment. (sept20)

8. Suddenly, Joonas Korpisalo is a possible late-round draft option or preseason waiver-wire pickup. Korpisalo wasn’t expected to play a whole lot backing up Swayman, but he is the most experienced option the Bruins have in camp and the most likely starter should Swayman miss regular-season games. His one season in Ottawa was less than outstanding, but he has the potential to show better numbers with the Bruins. Once Swayman returns, Korpisalo has the potential to be one of the better backups and a possible streamer. (sept20)

9. Brandon Bussi has been a top-searched player on Frozen Tools recently, and for good reason. Bussi has spent the past two seasons in the AHL, posting solid numbers for the Providence Bruins. He’s already 26 years of age, which might seem too old to be a prospect, but goalies generally need more time to cook in the AHL before they’re NHL ready. Korpisalo has been inconsistent in the past, so Bussi could easily challenge for starts if the Swayman situation extends into the regular season. (sept20)

10. In case you missed it, James van Riemsdyk signed a one-year, $900,000 contract with the Columbus Blue Jackets. The move was likely necessitated by the recent tragic passing of Johnny Gaudreau; otherwise, van Riemsdyk was probably looking at signing a PTO somewhere.

JVR isn’t the effective fantasy option that he once was, as he has finished with around a 40-point pace in each of the last three seasons. He should add some value to Columbus’s power play, as 12 of his 38 points in 2023-24 came on the man advantage. Only two players on the Jackets’ roster last season (Gaudreau and Kirill Marchenko) registered more power-play points than that, although there are no assurances that JVR would play on the top unit. Regardless, I wouldn’t draft van Riemsdyk in anything but the deepest of leagues.

Since he is on a one-year contract, van Riemsdyk is also a candidate to be flipped at the deadline for some futures, assuming that the Jackets are out of the playoff race by then. (sept20)

11. Brett Pesce is considered week-to-week following offseason surgery on his lower leg. Pesce was signed by the Devils in the offseason after spending his entire career with the Hurricanes. The Devils are already dealing with multiple injuries on their blueline, as neither Pesce nor Luke Hughes (shoulder) are able to participate at training camp and could miss the start of the season.

12. Kyle Okposo announced his retirement on Thursday after 17 NHL seasons. Okposo played over 1000 games mostly with the Islanders and Sabres, but he finished his career on the highest of high notes by winning a Stanley Cup with the Panthers. His best season came in 2013-14, when he finished with a career-best 27 goals and 69 points with the Islanders. I also had the pleasure of watching him get drafted live back in 2006 (7^th overall) in Vancouver, which I just realized happened nearly two decades ago. All the best to Okposo in retirement. (sept20)

13. 52-year-old Jaromir Jagr is finally expected to play in his final season of professional hockey in the Czech league. Those of us who are around that age probably can’t imagine being a professional athlete this long, with the only real hockey comparison being Gordie Howe. Should Jagr finally retire at the end of the season, he will be eligible for the Hall of Fame in… 2028. That’s a long wait for a player drafted in 1990. Good that he’ll finally get in. He deserves it. (sept20)

14. The Dallas Stars announced that forward Jason Robertson will miss most of training camp due to an offseason foot surgery, though he’s expected to be ready for the start of the season. They said it was for a cyst, so it doesn’t appear it’s anything structural, but we’ll wait to see when he actually returns. (sept19)

15. Back on Tuesday, I started going through my projections and those Ramblings covered even-strength goal scoring among some forwards. The projections have been slower coming than I would like, but I have finished the forwards. Let’s take the rest of these Ramblings to talk about even-strength point production among forwards.

Nikita Kucherov

The very top didn’t surprise me – Nathan MacKinnon and Connor McDavid are first and second – but it did surprise me to see Nikita Kucherov in a tie with David Pastrnak:

Kucherov’s expected decline in EV production is largely tied to his assists as he had a career-high 60 EV assists last season. He had cracked 50 EV assists in one other season (54 in 2018-19) and his prior two seasons saw an average of 41 per 82 games. When his power play projections come in, he’ll likely be in the 120-point(ish) range, which is still a phenomenal season. It is just that expecting him to repeat 140-plus points is expecting a lot. (sept19)

[Follow the link for more…]

16. Let’s take a quick look at the list of PTOs, and note anyone who could have some fantasy relevance this upcoming season if signed.  

Tyson Barrie, CGY 

Barrie is the only one here who would be a presence on a team's top power play unit. He didn't fit at all in Nashville, but otherwise has a lot of recent success with power play production. He could easily bump Mackenzie Weegar and Rasmus Andersson off the top unit, that will likely feature Jonathan Huberdeau, Nazem Kadri, Andrei Kuzmenko, and Yegor Sharangovich up front.  

Jakub Vrana, WAS 

Vrana may be on his part NHL chance after inexplicably being pushed out of the lineup in St Louis. He has excellent goal scoring rates despite limited minutes. As a comparable I would value him similarly to Daniel Sprong.  

Max Pacioretty, TOR 

Last year with Washington Pacioretty’s shot rates were way down, to only 2.0 per game. He was a top-20 fantasy player in his prime mainly because he was up closer to 4.0 per game. Now he is a few years and two Achilles surgeries removed from being that player, and we have to change our perception of him. Despite the drop in shots, he was serviceable in a middle six role for Washington last season, and Toronto has more goals to go around that Pacioretty could work his way into getting points on. However, there won't be top power play time for him, and he is almost 36 years old. He could catch lighting in a bottle and have a solid season or fade out of relevance very soon. (sept18)

[Follow the link for more…]

17. Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins put an end to the ceaseless rumours of his future with a two-year contract extension (AAV of $8.7 million). It includes a full no-move clause, too. This covers his age-37 and age-38 seasons, so we’ll probably be back in the rumour mill 18 months from now, but at least this can be put to bed. At least he made it easy on salary cap fantasy managers. (sept17)

18. One big domino for the Red Wings was knocked down as Lucas Raymond signedan eight-year deal for a little over $8M AAV. He certainly turned some heads in 2023-24 and is looking to build on his breakout season. It is a bit sketchy as to his value in cap leagues, though. The peripherals, for now, are fine but not great and he needs to be more than a 70-point player with modest peripherals to really be worth that cap hit. (sept17)

19. I’ll share five tips to consider in your upcoming fantasy drafts. Let’s get right into it!

1) Maximizing Games Played – Light Nights

‘Light nights’ refer to days when there aren’t many games scheduled. For our purposes, we’ll use a threshold of eight games – meaning 16 or fewer NHL teams in action. If you’d like to use a lower threshold, you can input a different number into Dobber’s Schedule Planner. By incorporating players with light nights into your roster, you can lower the chances of every skater at a given position playing on the same day, which would otherwise force you to bench active players. 

In most fantasy leagues, you have a set number of roster slots and bench spots. In the early rounds, when you’re drafting those top players that will be on your starting roster every night, I wouldn’t focus too much on the light-night effect. Just pick the best players available. However, as the draft goes on and you begin selecting your bench players, considering light nights becomes more important. Let’s say at the end of your draft you have two center slots but three centers, Robert Thomas (St. Louis), Macklin Celebrini (San Jose), and Elias Lindholm (Boston). Three players on teams with minimal light nights, which means they’re mostly playing on busy days.

20. At this point, I’d like to introduce you to one of the most underrated tools for your fantasy draft: Dobber’s Roster GP Maximizer. The rest of this paragraph explains how to use it, so feel free to skip to the next one if you’re not interested in the process right now. First, enter the date range you’re interested in. For the purposes of draft planning, I usually select ‘custom date range’ and set it from the beginning of October to the end of April to capture the full campaign. After you click the big green ‘generate report’ button, you can scroll down to the ‘compare player schedules‘ section. Here, you can set the number of players at your position of interest. In our example above, we have three centers. Next, we input each player’s team and set the ‘max active players per day’ to two because we only have two starting center slots. Finally, we hit that beautiful green ‘compare schedules’ button.

21. From this magical resource, we learn that a Thomas/Celebrini/Lindholm combo requires us to bench an active player 45 times during the season. In contrast, if we swap Celebrini for someone like Trevor Zegras – who plays for a Ducks’ team with the most ‘light nights’ on tap – then there are only 29 of these scheduling conflicts. If you pick a center from Chicago, it’d be 35. From Vancouver or the Rangers? 33. Obviously there’s more to schedule overlap than just light nights, as two teams might play on different busy nights throughout the year. However, the light-night effect is a good general guiding principle, and the GP Maximizer tool can help you tackle more specific situations.

[Follow the link for more…]

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Be sure to also grab your copy of the 2024 Dobber Fantasy Hockey Prospects Report!

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Have a good week, folks!
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