Cap League Goalie Rankings – September 2024
Alexander MacLean
2024-09-26
Not too many updates this month as we await the big contract from Jeremy Swayman that may reset the goaltending market. Thatcher Demko drops down the rankings with news of his injury affecting his projected numbers for the year. Some smaller adjustments made to others as well, but the consistency on the list should hopefully serve well moving into the season.
But first, the 19th annual Fantasy Hockey Guide was released just a couple of days ago. That’s right, I’ve earned your trust for 19 years. You can order your digital copy here for immediate download, or for another $5 you can get the Fantasy Prospects Report along with it (Value $14.99) here.
Standard pre-rankings note:
Cap hit is used for the player cost, so if your league uses salary or AAV, please account for that, as it can greatly change the impact of entry-level deals. The rankings are set up so as to provide the most value in the current season, while providing some value in future years, based on modeling for predicted salary increases and production growth.
The stats used for the goaltenders attempt to balance both ratio stats as well as volume. For those of you with variations towards either end of the spectrum, leaning more towards volume or rate stats, you will want to account for that change in value. Same thing goes for setting variations such as: number of teams, salary space, or roster positions. This list is made to be a baseline guide for player evaluation, and to promote discussion and understanding of how to optimize rosters in a cap league setting.
The goalie list comes not only with a value system, but with value tiers. The tiers (also computed by a formula of mine) represent a more general view on a goalie's value taking into account a few overarching factors. Cheap backups can have higher ratings but show up lower down the tier rankings. The high ranking is due to their low cap hits coupled with an established floor with some possible upside. The lower tier is a result of them having uncertain volume, and the lower likelihood of hitting their upside in any given year. In general, aim to have the highest rated players if you are looking to be most cap efficient, but use the tiers if you just want to focus on having the best goalies and you are comfortable paying a little more for that security (my preference is usually to lean towards the more cap efficient options because of how variable goalies can be).
If you note a mistake, or have any further questions about the ranking system, please let me know. You can find me on Twitter here @alexdmaclean.
Comments help with optimizing the values, because they're not perfect and they never will be.
We're sticking with the +/- 5.0 rating that Dobber uses on all of his rating schemes as the range for approximately equivalent value. The skater and goalie rankings are synched so that the value of a skater against a goalie can be compared, though the scale of the ratings has changed a little since the last update.
Rank | Name | Age | Cap Hit | Yrs | Value | Tier | Prev Rnk |
1 | Stuart Skinner | 25 | $2,600,000 | 2 | 255.0922306 | 1 | 1 |
2 | Pyotr Kochetkov | 25 | $2,000,000 | 3 | 232.6491054 | 1 | 2 |
3 | Juuse Saros | 29 | $5,000,000 | 1 | 197.5554169 | 1 | 4 |
4 | Igor Shesterkin | 28 | $5,666,667 | 1 | 196.8249739 | 1 | 5 |
5 | Jake Oettinger | 25 | $4,000,000 | 1 | 191.3743466 | 1 | 6 |
6 | Connor Hellebuyck | 31 | $8,500,000 | 8 | 176.8817702 | 1 | 7 |
7 | Logan Thompson | 27 | $766,667 | 1 | 257.5962635 | 2 | 8 |
8 | Joey Daccord | 28 | $1,200,000 | 1 | 236.2102388 | 2 | 9 |
9 | Alexandar Georgiev | 28 | $3,400,000 | 1 | 226.2460596 | 2 | 10 |
10 | Ilya Samsonov | 27 | $1,800,000 | 1 | 185.6393716 | 2 | 11 |
11 | Anthony Stolarz | 30 | $2,500,000 | 2 | 173.5413469 | 2 | 12 |
12 | Linus Ullmark | 31 | $5,000,000 | 1 | 166.4405107 | 2 | 13 |
13 | Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | 25 | $4,750,000 | 5 | 165.6115856 | 2 | 26 |
14 | Jeremy Swayman | 25 | RFA | 0 | 162.1606468 | 2 | 14 |
15 | Andrei Vasilevskiy | 30 | $9,500,000 | 4 | 151.7206693 | 2 | 15 |
16 | Thatcher Demko | 28 | $5,000,000 | 2 | 147.3462322 | 2 | 3 |
17 | Charlie Lindgren | 30 | $1,100,000 | 1 | 272.8705807 | 3 | 16 |
18 | Samuel Ersson | 24 | $1,450,000 | 2 | 239.1014236 | 3 | 17 |
19 | Joseph Woll | 26 | $766,667 | 1 | 235.1140825 | 3 | 18 |
20 | Connor Ingram | 27 | $1,950,000 | 2 | 234.34902 | 3 | 20 |
21 | Lukas Dostal | 24 | $812,500 | 1 | 221.5292831 | 3 | 19 |
22 | Devon Levi | 22 | $925,000 | 1 | 172.3007755 | 3 | 22 |
23 | Frederik Andersen | 34 | $3,400,000 | 1 | 168.9642467 | 3 | 23 |
24 | Jordan Binnington | 31 | $6,000,000 | 3 | 159.4386314 | 3 | 24 |
25 | Adin Hill | 28 | $4,900,000 | 1 | 154.498714 | 3 | 25 |
26 | Ilya Sorokin | 29 | $8,250,000 | 8 | 145.6013781 | 3 | 27 |
27 | Filip Gustavsson | 26 | $3,750,000 | 2 | 143.7441994 | 3 | 28 |
28 | Sergei Bobrovsky | 35 | $10,000,000 | 2 | 134.5145608 | 3 | 29 |
29 | Jesper Wallstedt | 21 | $925,000 | 1 | 103.4028258 | 3 | 30 |
30 | Dustin Wolf | 23 | $850,000 | 2 | 217.0859268 | 4 | 47 |
31 | Joel Hofer | 24 | $775,000 | 1 | 204.8068055 | 4 | 31 |
32 | David Rittich | 32 | $1,000,000 | 1 | 200.9305495 | 4 | 21 |
33 | Daniil Tarasov | 25 | $1,050,000 | 1 | 180.3858942 | 4 | 32 |
34 | Calvin Pickard | 32 | $1,000,000 | 2 | 173.9290412 | 4 | 33 |
35 | Jacob Markstrom | 34 | $6,000,000 | 2 | 148.2318911 | 4 | 35 |
36 | Cam Talbot | 37 | $2,500,000 | 2 | 145.8018064 | 4 | 36 |
37 | Tristan Jarry | 29 | $5,375,000 | 4 | 143.3872678 | 4 | 37 |
38 | Karel Vejmelka | 28 | $2,725,000 | 1 | 142.9184942 | 4 | 34 |
39 | Mackenzie Blackwood | 27 | $2,350,000 | 1 | 129.6144237 | 4 | 38 |
40 | Petr Mrazek | 32 | $4,250,000 | 2 | 122.0361098 | 4 | 39 |
41 | Elvis Merzlikins | 30 | $5,400,000 | 3 | 114.5557095 | 4 | 40 |
42 | Philipp Grubauer | 32 | $5,900,000 | 3 | 109.7198123 | 4 | 41 |
43 | Justus Annunen | 24 | $837,500 | 2 | 105.2596186 | 4 | 42 |
44 | John Gibson | 31 | $6,400,000 | 3 | 100.5898726 | 4 | 43 |
45 | Yaroslav Askarov | 22 | $925,000 | 1 | 99.99604559 | 4 | 44 |
46 | Spencer Knight | 23 | $4,500,000 | 2 | 14.31956804 | 4 | 45 |
47 | Casey DeSmith | 33 | $1,000,000 | 3 | 168.2978191 | 5 | 46 |
48 | Arturs Silovs | 23 | $850,000 | 2 | 166.9295223 | 5 | 55 |
49 | Alex Lyon | 31 | $900,000 | 1 | 139.4174493 | 5 | 48 |
50 | Laurent Brossoit | 31 | $3,300,000 | 2 | 133.2823134 | 5 | NR |
51 | Vitek Vanecek | 28 | $3,400,000 | 1 | 123.6387766 | 5 | 49 |
52 | Chris Driedger | 30 | $795,000 | 1 | 120.7491316 | 5 | 50 |
53 | Sam Montembeault | 27 | $3,150,000 | 3 | 120.0864182 | 5 | 52 |
54 | Jonathan Quick | 38 | $1,275,000 | 1 | 115.5622233 | 5 | 53 |
55 | Darcy Kuemper | 34 | $5,250,000 | 3 | 112.8500651 | 5 | 54 |
56 | Ville Husso | 29 | $4,750,000 | 1 | 87.98045994 | 5 | 57 |
57 | Jack Campbell | 32 | $775,000 | 1 | 66.57298352 | 5 | 58 |
58 | Mads Sogaard | 23 | $775,000 | 2 | 65.50977423 | 5 | 59 |
59 | Ivan Fedotov | 27 | $3,275,000 | 2 | 62.45515869 | 5 | NR |
60 | Brandon Bussi | 26 | $775,000 | 1 | 36.45725298 | 5 | 60 |
61 | Cayden Primeau | 25 | $890,000 | 1 | 143.3904443 | 6 | 62 |
62 | Kevin Lankinen | 29 | $875,000 | 1 | 141.5259538 | 6 | 61 |
63 | Scott Wedgewood | 32 | $1,500,000 | 2 | 127.2961966 | 6 | NR |
64 | Dan Vladar | 27 | $2,200,000 | 1 | 127.0770308 | 6 | NR |
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Semyon Varlamov?