Ramblings: Hanifin & Ehlers on PP1; Underrated Third Wheels in Novak, Killorn, Tatar & Smith (Sep 30)

Brennan Des

2024-09-30

It looks like Noah Hanifin has the luxury of starting on Vegas' top power play, but Shea Theodore will be champing at the bit if he falters. The sample is small but after Hanifin was promoted to the top unit on April 2nd, he racked up eight power-play points in 14 games over the regular and post-season. While it's true that Theodore has the longer history of offensive and power-play excellence, he's a UFA at the end of the season and will be tough to re-sign given Vegas' minimal cap space. The team is much more invested in Noah Hanifin, who's on contract for eight more years at an AAV of $7.35 million.

In nine NHL seasons, not once has Nikolaj Ehlers finished with a majority share of his team's power-play time. That seems destined to change now that he's starting on Winnipeg's top unit. If he can stay healthy, that previous career high of 64 points should be shattered this year.

This is strange from the Rangers considering how well the unit of Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, Vincent Trocheck, Chris Kreider, and Adam Fox fared last year. However, the team already knows that group can be successful, and the players are already familiar with each other, so it makes sense to test out new combinations during the preseason. This is something other teams may also be doing – auditioning new talent and slowly reverting to what works if experiments aren't successful. Some changes will stick, and others won't, so be careful about making hasty decisions based solely on training camp news.

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Looking for solid fantasy production at discounted rates? Here are a few under-the-radar names riding shotgun beside talented duos:

Tommy Novak

The 27-year-old center might be my favourite fantasy target this year as he's set to line up between two 40-goal scorers in Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault. That alone would have my salivary glands working overtime, but I'm even more excited because Novak's own ability remains under the radar. His first real season was the 2022-23 campaign. Since then, he's scored at a 59-point pace despite averaging just 14 minutes a night. While he'll be stuck on Nashville's second power-play unit, there's plenty of room for his even-strength role to increase. More minutes beside Stammer and Marchessault can only be a good thing.

I often preach that we should avoid recently signed free agents because their fantasy values tend to be inflated. When a good player joins a new team, fantasy managers treat best-case scenario as a given, failing to account for adjustment periods or incompatibility with projected linemates. That would apply twice here, with both Marchessault and Stamkos being new additions, making my endorsement of Novak seem somewhat hypocritical. Am I not treating an unseen product – the Marchessault-Novak-Stamkos line – as if it's already a successful entity? Well, yes, but since the cost to acquire Novak is so low, the risk isn't as concerning. Now, if you were to target Stamkos or Marchessault, you'd need to use a valuable top 100 pick. If things don't work out, you've missed out on a massive amount of value. However, by investing in the most affordable share of Nashville's 'second line' stock, you have access to most of the profit without nearly as much risk. In fact, I bet Novak is currently sitting on the waiver wire in a bunch of your leagues. If a 60-point center could be valuable to your roster, grab Novak and don't look back.

Alex Killorn

Under most circumstances, I wouldn't endorse a 35-year-old winger coming off an injury-riddled campaign. However, considering how low the cost is to acquire Killorn in fantasy leagues today, I'd be remiss if I didn't highlight his potential. It's funny how much one season can change perceptions. Fresh off a career-high 27 goals and 64 points with Tampa during the 2022-23 campaign, Killorn inked a $6.25 million AAV with Anaheim last summer. Fantasy managers were pessimistic given his age and the downgrade in team quality, and their concerns were warranted as his point pace went from 64 to 47. However, a closer look reveals that he suffered from some bad luck along the way, fracturing his finger during preseason action. He was just finding his footing while everyone else had a month of action under their belts, so I'd excuse his first 12 games where he only posted four points. However, from that point on to late January (when he suffered a knee injury), Killorn posted a respectable 55-point pace. I think that's a fair mark to expect from him this year if he can stay healthy. My reason for mentioning Killorn, however, isn't solely based on last year, it's also related to what's happening this preseason. He's currently riding shotgun beside elite young talents Cutter Gauthier and Leo Carlsson – a unit that's quickly developing chemistry.

Given their pedigree, Gauthier and Carlsson are more likely to receive fantasy attention this year, but you can get Killorn, a silent beneficiary of their success, at a bargain price. If he's not someone you want to roster all year, he makes for a good streaming option considering the Ducks have a league-leading 41 light-night games this year. Although he'll probably slot in on the team's second power-play unit, Anaheim is one of a few teams that split time evenly between two groups, so Killorn should get more PP reps than your typical secondary option.

Tomas Tatar

Sticking with the theme of older player, coming off a disappointing year, playing beside two young studs (it's a little spooky how many similarities there are here actually), we have none other than Tomas Tatar. The 33-year-old Slovak is back in New Jersey after underwhelming stints in Seattle and Colorado last year. He should slot in on the Devils' second line, beside Nico Hischier and Dawson Mercer. He held that same spot during the 2022-23 campaign, when he racked up 48 points. His 44 points at even strength that year placed him 70th in the league. Hischier, Mercer and Tatar were excellent together, dominating opponents in shots and scoring chances, ultimately outscoring them 23 to 10. With so much talent in NJ's roster, first year bench boss Sheldon Keefe may be tempted to tinker with the lines, but I think this trio will play well enough to stay intact.

Tatar's hideous 28-point pace last year was influenced by his measly average ice time of 12 and a half minutes – a significant drop from the 15 minutes he skated the year before in NJ. Not only will he be returning to his old linemates this year, but I imagine he'll also return to that beefier average ice-time. Tatar won't turn many heads in shallow leagues, but if you're in a deeper format where a 50-point pace is useful, snag Tatar from the waiver wire before comeback season commences.

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Morgan Geekie

I'm not as enthusiastic about Geekie as I am other players in this section, but that has more to do with his linemates than him.

Call me a hater, but I just don't think that a 36-year-old Brad Marchand – coming off three surgeries and his lowest point pace of the past eight years – can drive play like he used to. Still, a consistent top-six role beside two players with 60-point potential (Marchand and Charlie Coyle) isn't a bad place to be. Sporadic stints in the top six and top power-play time led Geekie to average 15 minutes of action last year, which was significantly more than anything he'd seen previously in his career. I'd expect a similar, if not slightly greater, even-strength role this year, allowing him to remain relevant in deeper fantasy leagues – especially those that track faceoff wins and hits. Unfortunately, his power-play outlook isn't as rosy since he probably falls to the second unit following the offseason acquisition of Elias Lindholm. If injury opens a spot on that top unit, Geekie's fantasy stock may increase, but in the meantime, I expect he flirts with a 40-point pace again.

Reilly Smith

Although Smith didn't mesh with the Penguins last year, chemistry doesn't seem to be an issue early on in New York as he's been clicking with Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider in training camp and preseason.

It's a spot that Kaapo Kakko seemed destined to fill for a while now, but even if Kakko takes a step forward this year, there's no guarantee he's promoted to New York's second line. Kakko has shown good chemistry with fellow youngsters Filip Chytil and Will Cuylle on the Rangers' third line, so coach Peter Laviolette might opt to keep that trio intact and deploy three strong lines.

Prior to last year, Smith frequently flirted with a 60-point pace despite holding a secondary power play role in Vegas, so I think it's fair to hope for 50-55 points if he sees big minutes beside Zibanejad and Kreider all year. Although predecessor Blake Wheeler managed a measly 32-point pace in the same spot last year, Wheeler was four years older and limited to less than 13 minutes a night. Jack Roslovic filled his shoes after the trade deadline, but his minutes were also limited. The amount of ice time Smith gets will have a major influence on his output.

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Additional third-wheel storylines to monitor include…

Alex Laferriere beside Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe in LA

Jack Roslovic beside Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis in Carolina

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Thanks for reading! If you ever have any fantasy hockey questions, follow me on Twitter @BrennanDeSouza and shoot me a message!

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UPCOMING GAMES

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PATRIK LAINE MTL
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MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
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