The puck drops Friday on the 2024-25 regular season, albeit with the full schedule not commencing until October 8th. But as always, before game number one it's time for me to make my annual Fearless Forecasts for fantasy. 

Here's the part where I usually talk about how my prior season's Forecasts fared, toasting my successes and lamenting those where I wasn't even in the ballpark. The problem is none of my 2023-24 Forecasts ended up being correct; not a single one! That's a bad look for sure; however, I take solace in that for 2022-23 I had my best results ever. Also, as I always make sure to emphasize, these are termed Fearless Forecasts for a reason, as they're usually bolder than garden-variety predictions, such that if I get even half correct I'd consider it an outstanding result. I realize that begs the question as to why, if that's the case, should you bother reading any further? Because even for ones which ultimately turn out wrong, my reasoning in making them in hopefully can give you insight to help you in your leagues.

I decided that for 2024-25 I'm including 12 forecasts, down from 15 last season. For one, a couple had to be scraped (due to Luke Hughes' injury and Tyson Barrie likely signing in Calgary), plus I didn't want to make 15 just for the sake of keeping things constant, as that likely would result in me reaching on at least a couple, making them not only less likely to be correct, but perhaps also less insightful to you. 

Another nice part of this process is you get to have your voices heard, as there will be a link at the end of the column to where you can vote for which Forecasts you believe will come true, or if, yet again, none will. With all that out of the way, onto what you're here for………..the Forecasts!

1) Anze Kopitar will produce at or below a 55 point scoring pace

Kopitar sure has seemed like an ageless wonder, as despite 2023-24 representing his 18th NHL season, he scored at a 70+ point pace for the second campaign in a row and still commanded nearly 20:00 of TOI per game. But all good things must come to an end, and I feel the writing is on the wall for Kopitar for several reasons.

First and foremost, he tallied 26 goals, which not only was the third highest total for him in his last ten seasons, but also came despite him taking only 133 SOG, for an average of 1.64 SOG per game and a shooting percentage of nearly 20%. Had he shot at 12.7%, which was his career rate coming into the 2023-24 season, he'd have tallied nine fewer goals. Perhaps some of those might have been repackaged as assists, yet there's no denying he benefitted from a lot of luck. It gets worse, as Kopitar had the most goals of anyone in the NHL who hit zero posts and crossbars – not a single one!

Placing those factors aside, Kopitar's explosiveness also seems to be abating. That's because in tallying 70 points, he had a point in 61.7% of his games. In turn, he had just 18 games with two or more points, of which only two saw him tally three points and none more than three. By comparison, in 2022-23 he had 74 points, but scored a point in only 53.6% of his games, with 22 multipoint games, four of which were three point efforts on top of one four point contest. In short, Kopitar is becoming less explosive. In 2023-24 he was able to compensate by being consistent; but at age 37 upon entering 2024-25, he could be at the point where he will no longer hit the scoresheet as often. Look no further than Joe Thornton, who at age 36 had a point per game season but at age 37 his production fell to 50 points in 79 games, or Patrice Bergeron, who saw his scoring rate drop from 65 points in 73 games at age 36 to 58 in 78 games at age 37.

No question Kopitar has had a stellar career, but he looks to be ripe for a sizeable decline in production. If you own him in a keeper, I'd sell now, while I'd avoid him in one-year leagues because he'll be drafted too early for what he'll likely produce.

2) Victor Olofsson will score 30+ goals if he plays 75+ games

Most certainly Olofsson had a 2023-24 to forget, scoring at just a 24 point pace while averaging 1.3 SOG per game and not even logging 12:00 of TOI per contest. As a result, he was only able to land himself a one-year deal for barely over $1M and is predicted by most to not even get 30 points, let alone goals. But I think the fact he inked a "prove yourself" deal, and is on Vegas, not to mention past performances, will lead to him thriving in 2024-25.

Let's keep I mind that Olofsson had 28 goals in 2022-23 despite only 14:21 TOI per game and taking the ice for less than 50% of Buffalo's man advantage minutes, on top of hitting five posts. To help put that in perspective, his goals per 60 minutes rate for 2022-23 landed him just outside the top 20 among all NHL forwards who played 60+ games that season, ahead of the likes of Matthew Tkachuk, Elias Pettersson, Sebastian Aho, Tim Stutzle, and Steven Stamkos to name just a few.

Olofsson also hit the 20 goal mark in two other prior seasons, including 2019-20 where he did so in just 54 games while sharing the ice for more than 80% of the time with a guy by the name of Jack Eichel, who just so happens to be in Vegas now. Of those 20 goals, 11 came on the PP, where Olofsson was a PP1 fixture, also with Eichel. Go figure! Also, only one other winger had 10+ PPGs as a rookie in the past ten seasons, and that was Brock Boeser, who just exploded for 40 goals at a point in his career which is just beyond where Olofsson will be in 2024-25.

Let's also not forget that Vegas' top six has three locks in Eichel, Mark Stone, and Tomas Hertl, the latter two being injury prone. Also in the mix for spots are Ivan Barbashev, William Karlsson, Pavel Dorofeyev, and Alexander Holtz; however, only Karlsson has three 20+ goals seasons like Olofsson, and he'd gone four seasons between doing so before hitting the 30 goal mark in 2023-24. Even then, Karlsson didn't see even 50% of Vegas' PP time.

Given the prior Olofsson-Eichel connection, Olofsson playing for his NHL future, his success as recently as 2022-23, and a pathway toward Olofsson seeing top six and PP1 time, I think the ingredients are there for Olofsson to explode. Accordingly, when all is said and done for 2024-25, look for Olofsson to snipe his way to 30+ goals if he plays 75+ games. 

3) If Alexis Lafreniere does not average at least 3:00 per game on the PP, he will have a lower scoring rate for 2024-25 than he did for 2023-24

Pretty much no one would argue that Laffy's career prior to 2023-24 had been a huge disappointment, with him not even once finishing with better than a point per every other game scoring rate. But there was a glimmer of hope even before 2023-24, as he did somehow manage to improve his scoring rate with each passing season. As we all saw, he made a major leap for 2023-24, to a 57 point scoring rate, then punctuated that with a 72 point scoring rate in the playoffs. Suddenly everyone is back aboard the Laffy train, setting high expectations for him for the 2024-25 regular season. But I think people are failing to realize that if past examples are illustrative, Laffy not only won't see gains, but is a good bet to fare even worse than he did in 2023-24.

The problem is the power play. New York had the third best PP in the league in 2023-24, and how that unfolded was by having Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, Vincent Trocheck, and Chris Kreider each take the ice for 74%+ of New York's man advantage minutes. That's three-quarters of all PP minutes, which in turn left Laffy not only with scraps, but also having to line up with Kappo Kakko, Blake Wheeler, Johnny Brodzinski, Jimmy Vesey, Alex Wennberg, and Jack Roslovic when he did manage to take the ice on the PP. No wonder that of Laffy's 57 points, a mere six came on the PP.

Beyond that, of the 18 points Laffy scored in his final 20 games, ten were goals on just 51 SOG; so although his SH% was seemingly not unreasonable for the season, it was actually inflated given how Q4 unfolded. Laffy's OZ% was also an astronomical 72.9%. To provide perspective on just how high that is, it put him third highest among all forwards who played 60+ games, and would have been second highest in 2022-23, and fourth highest in 2021-22. That is likely unsustainable; and who knows how he can fare if his OZ% drops to a number more typical for top six forwards?

Don't get me wrong – I definitely think Laffy has talent; and there are examples (Brad Marchand and Carter Verhaeghe) of players who likewise tallied 55+ points with six or fewer PPPts on their way to becoming much better players. The difference is they had a path to PP1, whereas Laffy, at least for now, does not. Instead he might be comparable to Alex Burrows or Michael Bunting, who played with top tier talent at ES and scored 55+ points without more than Laffy's six coming on the PP, but failed to thrive without a path to PP1 and, as such, were unable to score as well the following season. 

4) Timo Meier will produce at a 90+ point scoring pace

For all his accolades, and the high regard in which he's been held in fantasy, Meier has never – not even once – finished a season with point per game scoring. He came close once, with 76 points in 77 games in 2021-22; but otherwise, he's never had a 70+ point scoring pace. Since his arrival in New Jersey, his cumulative point total is 66 in 90 games, for a scoring pace of barely 60 points. What's more – his SOG rate plummeted from 4.2 per game in each of the two prior seasons, including his 2021-22 best, to just 3.0 in 2023-24.

Why then, given all this, is there reason for optimism? It's because if we focus on just Q4 of 2023-24, we see he connected the dots big time, to the tune of 24 points in 21 games, with 15 goals and ten PPPts. How is that not just an unsustainable hot streak? It coincided with Meier finally being placed on a line at ES with Nico Hischier, who is an offensive talent yet has enough two-way focus to allow Meier to be unleashed. It's not a perfect analogy, but think Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak. Also, Meier was finally receiving upwards of 3:00 per game on the PP in Q4, which marked a first for him in his entire career. And with the Devils having only Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, and Hischier as locks for PP1, that leaves a spot for Meier.

Also important is Meier's IPPs were barely below 70%, which is impressive since for the first time in his career he was playing alongside higher caliber talent, in turn suggesting he will still be able to continue to factor prominently into the scoring that occurs while he's on the ice. On top of that, Meier's offensive zone starting percentage for 2023-24 was 51.5%, which is neither high nor low, and his secondary assist percentage of 41.7% was the second lowest of his career. Although Meier might not thrive to quite the extent he did in Q4, which projects to 93 points, he should do well enough to be able to produce at a 90+ point pace amid a full season with Nico Hischier and on PP1. 

5) At least one of Elias Pettersson or J.T. Miller will double Jake DeBrusk's scoring rate

DeBrusk never seemed happy in Boston, nor has he come close to living up to being drafted 14th overall in 2015. Turning 28 in October, DeBrusk has a fresh start with Vancouver, which locked him into a seven year, $38.5M contract this offseason.

On paper, it looks like a huge win for DeBrusk, as he's all but assured to play with one of Pettersson or Miller at even strength, plus likely with both on PP1. But guess who else had that going for him? Andrei Kuzmenko, and we know how that turned out. Yes, Kuzmenko made a lot less money and was signed for far fewer years. Still, Kuzmenko had a red carpet rolled out for him yet still failed, in large part because Rick Tocchet felt his effort wasn't consistently there.

That could be a problem for DeBrusk, who last season had a scoreless stretch of 14 out of 15 games. Also, when DeBrusk was given ample PP time with the Bs, he didn't capitalize, as the eight games in 2023-24 which saw him take the ice for 3:00+ of PP time resulted in zero PPPts. Yes, in those games he still wasn't on PP1; but it's not a great sign no matter how you slice it. Also, in 2022-23 when DeBrusk was actually put on PP1 for the Bs, he had an IPP on the PP of just 43.8%, which is incredibly low for a forward, and strongly suggests that if on the ice during the PP with the best of the best of a team on the PP, he's the odd man out. That's also reinforced in general by DeBrusk's 56.8% overall IPP for 2022-23, when he skated most often at ES with Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron, versus the two immediately prior seasons, when he played with less talented players, but had an IPP over 70%. Also, that 2022-23 season saw his 5×5 team shooting percentage be 9.1%. For context, Marchand's was 8.2%, for a player who in the two previous seasons was into the double digits. And DeBrusk's 5×5 team SH% in other seasons have been dismal, with a best of 8.2% but marks of 8.0%, 6.6%, 7.1%, and 5.5%.

Based on this data, an unmistakable conclusion to be drawn is that DeBrusk is able to factor into the scoring well when not paired with top tier talent, but that not much actual scoring occurs. Beyond that, the one time he was fortunate to be paired with elite players, he brought them down, and lost his nose for scoring both at ES and in particular on the PP.

Rick Tocchet is a hard-nosed coach who isn't above deemphasizing underperforming players, having done so with Kuzmenko and, before that, Pettersson. He even has put players like Pius Suter and Dakota Joshua on the top line at times due to their effort level. While Vancouver will do what it can to try to make things work with DeBrusk given what he earns, I see this as a failure waiting to happen.

6) However many wins Ottawa gets, Linus Ullmark will have no more than half of them

To make this clear, let's say Ottawa wins 42 games in 2024-25, I'm saying that Ullmark will have a total of 21 or fewer of those wins. In short, I'm forecasting that Ullmark is not going to be the #1 goalie many have him pegged to be.

Why not? Yes, I realize Ullmark is on the last season of his current deal and therefore will have added motivation to play especially well as a UFA to be; however, I think his recent success was far more about being on the Bruins versus a function of his own skill. After all, he'd never had a GSAA above 5.1 before joining the Bs. Also, despite still being on the Bruins and the team performing well, Ullmark's GAA and SV% were worse in 2023-24 than during his last season as a Sabre. Also, Ullmark has never – not even once! – played 50 games in a season, and just once has previously played over 41. He's definitely not tested in terms of being a true #1 netminder.

I realize that Anton Forsberg has been subpar since his 46 game season in 2021-22, and even then he was not great. Still, he's making $2.75M, which isn't too much less than Ullmark, and is playing for a UFA deal as well. Also, the Sens have Mads Sogaard, who in 2023-24 seemed to prove he's better than an AHL goalie. It almost reminds me of what happened in Dallas in 2021-22, with a veteran (Braden Holtby) who was brought in to be the starter, and a back-up (Anton Khudobin) who was making decent money but considered insurance should the starter falter. Yet when the dust settled, it was Jake Oettinger, who then was the same age Sogaard is now, who emerged as the true starter. It also says a lot that Ullmark didn't ink an extension upon landing in Ottawa, as perhaps it might be due to the team being concerned.

As for the favors Boston did Ullmark, the average shot distance he faced among goalies who played 1000+ minutes was middle of the pack, while his average goal distance was among the top third highest, whereas top tier goalies like Sergei Bobrovsky, Jake Oettinger, Connor Hellebuyck, Igor Shesterkin, and Jeremy Swayman were all in the bottom ten.

Moreover, Ullmark's SV% was .an unimpressive 906 on one day rest, which is commonplace for starters. He was also outside the top 20 for goalies who played 25+ games when it came to SV% while his team was on the PP or shorthanded. The Sens likely will expose him more in these areas than the Bs.

Lastly, there's the issue that not since the 2023 playoffs has Ullmark been consistently looked upon as an everyday goalie, and his performance during those playoffs was seen as a contributing factor as to why a historically great Bs team that season was unceremoniously bounced in the first round. And again, that was on a Bruins team which was leaps and bounds above what Ottawa will ice in 2024-25.

While I'll admit there isn't ironclad data supporting this forecast, something just doesn't sit right for me when I consider how Ullmark will fare for the Sens. As always though, time will tell.

7) If Moritz Seider has an OZ% above 45% and gets a 55%+ share of Detroit's PP minutes, he'll score at a 65+ point pace

I realize Seider's 2023-24 season appeared to be a major disappointment after many felt his second campaign was a studder step. Yes, that is not one but two qualifiers in my Forecast. But hear me out on this.

For sure even a 60 point pace would be a huge jump from 42 points last season, and from the 50 points he had as a rookie. But if we peel back the onion a bit, Seider's 42 points in 2023-24 was an amazing accomplishment all things considered. For one, his OZ% was a miniscule 39.0%, which was 18th lowest among 234 d-men who played in 30+ games, with the best points pace of any of the 18 with a lower OZ% being 31, and more than half not even pacing for 20 points. For him to best the point per every other game mark despite a headwind like that is quite impressive.

But there's more. Seider’s 17 PPPts put him tied for 19th among all rearguards, this despite receiving only the 29th most PP minutes among all rearguards. And his 58.6% PP IPP was higher than the likes of Victor Hedman, John Carlson, Erik Karlsson and Miro Heiskanen to name a few. Yes, I realize part of his PP IPP being that high was due to less talented forwards being on PP2; but this signifies he has a nose for PP scoring, which was proven with an even higher 65.6% PP IPP as a rookie when he was manning the point on PP1.

What about Erik Gustafsson, whom the Wings inked to a two year deal? How does a team sign Gus if not to use him on PP1? Perhaps that is indeed the plan; however, I have zero faith in Gus being able to produce, plus he's only being paid $2M, or less than half what Shayne Gostisbehere earned last season, meaning it should be a lot easier for the Wings to elbow Gus out of the PP1 picture if indeed he falters. Why might Gus falter? For one, he's now five seasons removed from his only great NHL campaign, and the Wings will be the EIGHTH team he’s played for since 2019-20! In short, although Gus likely has an inside track at PP1 entering 2024-25, in view of his fairly low salary and recent journeyman ways, it is realistic to envision Seider finding a path to PP1, or at least being on the top unit far more frequently than when the more talented, higher paid Ghost was still in the picture.

If Seider gets a real chance to play without the hindrance of an ultra-low OZ%, plus spending more time on PP1 than not, I think the sky is the limit. Yes, those are two ifs, but I think both have a good shot of happening.

8) If he plays 75+ games, Zach Werenski will lead the Blue Jackets in scoring by at least 15 points

The Blue Jackets were already going to enter 2024-25 without Patrik Laine, who, disappointing 2023-24 aside, had been nearly a point per gamer since his arrival. Now on top of that there's the tragic loss of Johnny Gaudreau, where, say what you want about how Gaudreau had done for Columbus thus far, he still was a player seemingly capable of ascending back to – and perhaps well beyond – the point per game mark.

Who, then, is left for the forward corps? The team added Sean Monahan, who rebounded to 59 points but for whom there are legitimate question marks since his rebound happened to coincide with him being a UFA. Other than him though, among current Blue Jacket forwards only Boone Jenner has ever scored at a 60+ point pace, but was just one time, and three seasons ago. There are younger players with realistic potential, including Adam Fantilli, Cole Sillinger, Kirill Marchenko, Dmitri Voronkov, and Yegor Chinakov. But are any of them ready to truly step up this season? Probably not.

What we do know, however, is Werenski had 57 points in 70 games last season, which translates to a scoring pace of 67 points. But I think he has even more in him, plus will realize he needs to step up in much the same way Roman Josi did for several years when the Preds lacked forward firepower.

Also, Werenski had 20 of his 57 points in his last 21 games, with 71 SOG and six PPPts. Also, in the 12 games that Werenski missed, the Blue Jackets scored 33 goals, for an average of 2.75 goals per game, or lower than their 2.85 goals per game season-long average, already showing that Werenski adds offense to their team.

Moreover, Werenski has realistic room to see his numbers improve. After all, of the 11 defensemen who had more points than him last season, only two had a lower overall IPP. His PP IPP, at 66.7%, is already quite good, as only four rearguards who outscored him had a higher mark. Add to that the fact Columbus' PP was among the worst in the NHL last season, and thus has only one way to go, namely up, with Werenski being a major beneficiary since he will likely get all the PP minutes he can handle.

Also, Werenski was able to produce as well as he did despite only 12 multi-point games, or one per every six games. If he'd played 82 games he'd likely have had 14, and even still that number would have lagged well below those ahead of him in d-man scoring, who collectively averaged 18 multipoint games, with more than half tallying 20+.

Werenski ended the 2023-24 season on a tear, yet still has realistic room to do quite a bit better, and Columbus will need to lean on him more so than ever. Thus, the ingredients are there for him to lead the team in scoring by a considerable margin if – and with him it is a bit of an if – he stays healthy.

9) Jacob Markstrom will have more wins, a lower GAA, and a higher SV% than Jake Oettinger

It seems longer ago than 2021-22 when Markstrom was Vezina-worthy, especially since he ended up destroying the 2022-23 season for many, with 14 really bad starts in 59 games and a .892 SV%. But he appeared to right his ship somewhat in 2023-24, with Q2 and Q3 numbers that were quite good. Also, his stats in 2023-24 were pronouncedly better away (2.63 GAA, .915 SV%) than at home (2.91, .894), meaning he likely was feeling the pressure after having disappointed his hometown fans in 2022-23.

Now Markstrom is in New Jersey, with a fresh start and, I'd argue, a much better overall team in front of him, as we need look no further than just Alexandar Georgiev and Thatcher Demko as the only two goalies who both started more games than Markstrom and faced a higher percentage of high danger shots in 2023-24. Beyond that, Markstrom's average shot distance faced was 33.2 feet, with no goalie who started more games seeing that low an average, and the two with the next lowest distances who started more games being John Gibson and Jordan Binnington, who also disappointed. In New Jersey, things should be a lot better, and Markstrom likely will rise to the occasion. Yes, the team has a capable back-up in Jake Allen; however, New Jersey is only on the hook for half of Allen's salary, making Markstrom, whom the Devils are paying over double the salary at $4.13M, the clear favorite to be a true starter. 

In Dallas, Oettinger is for sure being looked upon as the true #1, just as he was last season. But things are not trending well for the Stars' franchise goalie.

In 139 games prior to 2023-24, Oettinger had a total of nine really bad starts. But last season alone, he had ten in just 54 games. Also, although the definition of “Really Bad Start” is when a goalie’s SV% in a game is 0.850 or worse, Oettinger had a lot of really, really bad starts, as in more than half his SV% was under .800. Also, he had four more starts with a SV% under 0.875 but above 0.850, meaning he just as easily could’ve had four more Really Bad Starts.

Although only 23.9% of the saves Oettinger had to make were "high danger" saves, ranking as 19th most in the NHL, his .777 high danger SV% was tied for dead last among the 31 goalies who appeared in 41+ games in 2023-24. To make matters worse, Oettinger’s SV% in terms of days rest were for one day (0.893) and two days (.877), which are the typical rest amounts for a workhorse, with only his SV% of .927 for three days rest and 0.932 for four or more days rest preventing his SV% from being truly dismal.

Seeing this, I feel like Oettinger, as someone who was quite young when he took over the starting role, might become more like Cam Ward or John Gibson than Andrei Vasilevskiy, Connor Hellebuyck, or Carey Price. Given this, look for Markstrom to surprisingly outperform him in all three of these key stats. 

10) Owen Tippett will be in the top 15 in goals per game

Top 15 is quite bold even if it doesn't sound like it, as Tippett wasn't in the top 50 last season. After making a big splash with Philly in 2022-23, Tippett's scoring rate basically stayed stuck in neutral for 2023-24 and his goals per game rate actually dropped a bit. So why is it that I see him now becoming a big-time sniper?

For one, Tippett had the fourth highest shots per 60 minutes rate in the entire NHL in 2023-24 among forwards who played at least half their team's games, behind just David Pastrnak, Brady Tkachuk, and Filip Forsberg, and the average number of goals scored by them last season was 44, with Tkachuk being the lowest of the three but still potting 37. All three also had at least 12 PPGs, whereas Tippett had a mere five. Yes, that was due somewhat to him taking the ice for less PP time; however, their PP SOG totals were 97 for Pastrnak, 95 for Forsberg, and 84 for Tkachuk. Tippett had 62, translating to a 8.1% shooting percentage on the PP which not only was lower than his overall SH%, very uncommon in and of itself, but among the 36 forwards with more PPSOG last season a third had a PP SH% that was at least double his rate, and only four others were in single digits, so Tippett could easily have tallied several more PPGs in the normal course. 

Also, Tippett hit a combined nine posts and crossbars, plus had 112 missed shots, with the lowest ice time of any of the 25 forwards who had more missed shots being a full minute more than him. He really is a pure shooter. On top of that, Tippett ended 2023-14 with 15 points in his last 17 games, with more than half those games seeing him take 4+ SOG, so he should be on tap for a bigger role in 2023-24, big enough, I think, for him to become a full-fledged sniper.

11) If Petr Mrazek plays 50+ games, he'll be in the top 10 in wins and/or the top five in SV%

Last season, Mrazek was one of only 20 goalies to appear in 50+ games; but not only did all other 19 of them win more games than him, so did nine other netminders, putting Mrazek way down in 29th in wins overall. That's awful no matter how you slice it.

Why then do I feel he could finish in the top 10 for 2024-25? For one, Chicago, as we know, will be a vastly improved team, having brought in Teuvo Teravainen and Tyler Bertuzzi, but also, perhaps even more importantly for Mrazek, T.J. Brodie and Alex Martinez. Yes, I realize the Blackhawks also added Laurent Brossoit, who is being paid $3.3M per season, which is not even $1M less than the $4.25M per season Mrazek is being paid, and that Mrazek has historically not done well when there was another goalie pushing him for starts. But if we look at what Mrazek did last season, it's a lot better than what it seems.

Although Mrazek's 3.03 GAA was second worst of the 20 goalies who appeared in 50+ games last season, his .908 SV% put him in the middle of the pack. And in fact, dating back to 2000-01 there were 49 other goalies who, like Mrazek last season, appeared in 50+ games and had a GAA of 3.00+; but his .908 SV% is tied for fourth best among them. Also, he had a 10.84 GSAA in 2023-24, ahead of, among others, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Juuse Saros, Jake Oettinger, Stuart Skinner, Andrei Vasilevskiy, and Alexandar Georgiev. And Mrazek somehow only had seven really bad starts, which was tied for the second lowest among all goalies last season who appeared in 50+ games.

Among the 20 who appeared in 50+ games, his average shot distance was fourth lowest, which did him no favors, while the percentage of high danger shots he had to face was seventh most. His SV% while his team was shorthanded was third worst, and while his team was on the PP it was second worst.

Brodie and Martinez should help a lot on the PK, while more veterans manning the PP should leave Mrazek less out to dry far less often in terms of goals while his team is on the man advantage. Those are key, as when it came to even strength, Mrazek was just fine, with the sixth best ES SV% among the 20 goalies who logged 50+ games last season.

The duo of Brodie and Martinez being elite shot blockers will also cut into the number of pucks that make it to Mrazek, which is key since he faced the third most SOG of any goalie last season. Even if he still sees a good number of high danger shots, he had the eighth best HDSV% of the 41 goalies who played 1500+ minutes last season.

In sum, Mrazek's 2023-24 was much better than it seemed. And since I believe not only will Chicago be a better team in terms of being able to actually win games, but the additions of two veteran d-men will help Mrazek's cause, it should be enough to lift him- if he plays 50+ games – into the top ten in goalie wins and/or the top ten in Save Percentage among those who likewise play 50+ games.

12) By the end of the season, Joonas Korpisalo will not be the Bruins' starter or back-up

Going into this season, many think Korpisalo will fare quite well for the Bs, and not just because there is a chance Jeremy Swayman holds out, leaving Korpisalo the starter. They also point to how well he fared when he was on the Kings, arguably the first very good team for which he played. But I'm not buying it. There's a reason the Sens not only were insistent upon the Bs taking him, but will be paying 25% of Korpisalo's salary on his remaining deal.

I won't mince words – Korpisalo is a bad goalie. Like really bad. Since Korpisalo's debut in 2015-16, he is one of 34 netminders to play a collective 250+ games. Among them he ranked 34th, i.e., dead last, in GSAA, GAA, and SV%, and second to last in quality start percentage and Goalie Point Shares. He also had just four – yes, only four – shutouts in 250 games started.

I know what you must be thinking – it's not fair to assess him against the best of the best. Okay, fine. Let's look instead at goalies who played between 150 and 300 games in that time frame, so as to get more back-ups and others who might not have thrived. Of the 39 goalies who meet these criteria, Korpisalo's Quality Start percentage is 36th, his shutouts tied for worst, his GSAA still worst, his SV% still worst, and his GAA third worst. Keep in mind goalies among the 39 were the likes of Mikko Koskinen, MacKenzie Blackwood, Carter Hutton, Jonathan Bernier, Jack Campbell, Vitek Vanecek, Brian Elliott, Anton Khudobin, and Aanti Raanta. In other words, some bad, bad goalies, Yet there he is, still collectively the worst of them all.

Yes, Korpisalo has played for some bad teams, but so did others, and they didn't fare as poorly. There is no way to sugarcoat this, I'm afraid. And although Korpisalo is not cheap, I feel he will suffer a fate similar to Campbell, and be banished to the AHL, or another NHL team, before the end of 2023-24.

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There you have it – 12 Fearless Forecasts for 2024-25. How many will proven correct, or will once again I be left licking my wounds in the spring due to none coming to fruition? You get to decide! Click here, to cast your votes on which Forecasts you agree with, or, if you're not sold on any of them, to vote for "None of the above." No matter how many I get correct, I do hope there have been useful takeaways from the column, and I wish all your fantasy teams great success!

Questions for Mailbag 

My next monthly mailbag has room for plenty more questions. To get your questions to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.