It has been a brutal preseason for goalies as Vancouver's Thatcher Demko's injury status is uncertain, Boston's Jeremy Swayman still hasn't signed a contract, and it was revealed Ilya Sorokin suffered an offseason back injury that require surgery. It isn't outlandish to think that if all three were healthy/signed and in the lineup for Game 1 of the regular season, they could all be top-5 fantasy goalies. At the least, we did get a positive Sorokin update:

BREAKING: #Isles Ilya Sorokin (back) is on the ice taking shots.

— Stefen Rosner (@stefen_rosner) October 2, 2024

Mr. Rosner would also say that Sorokin didn't practice with the team, but was working with the coaches off to the side. That he's on the ice, taking shots, and working with the coaches is a good sign. There is no firm update on when he'll be ready to go for game action, but a lot of steps in the right direction.

It is also notable that Maxim Tsyplakov was on the second line for Islanders practice even with all the regulars on the ice. In their preseason game on Monday, he also skated on the top PP unit in a game with mostly regulars, including Kyle Palmieri and Brock Nelson. Those latter two names might be getting the heave-ho (for now) to the second PP unit in favour of Tsyplakov and Anthony Duclair.

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An update on Luke Hughes:

Tom Fitzgerald told me Luke Hughes (left shoulder) has yet to start skating and remains 5-7 weeks away.

— Mike Morreale (@mikemorrealeNHL) October 2, 2024

That timeline means sometime in November. Something to keep in mind when drafting him or Dougie Hamilton.

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A sort-of update on Artemi Panarin after he left New York's latest preseason game with an injury:

Team is off today, so I wouldn't expect any updates on Panarin until tomorrow. But as I mentioned last night, it sounds like the #NYR are optimistic this was more of a precautionary measure than anything serious. https://t.co/RT5rshrKVg

— Vince Z. Mercogliano (@vzmercogliano) October 2, 2024

Hopefully that good news holds.

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It's just a look, but an important development for Moritz Seider's fantasy value:

Seider getting a PP1 look at practice today

— Max Bultman (@m_bultman) October 2, 2024

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Some very notable Chicago Blackhawks training camp cuts:

The Blackhawks have made their decision: Frank Nazar, Kevin Korchinski and Louis Crevier have been sent to Rockford.

AJ Spellacy has been returned to OHL Windsor.

— Ben Pope (@BenPopeCST) October 2, 2024

Kevin Korchinski spent the year in the NHL last season, but he's still just 20 years old and the team added TJ Brodie and Alec Martinez in the offseason. He will be back up at some point, it's just a matter of when.

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San Jose deemed rookie Macklini Celebrini day-to-day after he took a spill into the boards during the team’s preseason game on Tuesday night. Looks like he avoided serious injury, which is great to see.

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Anaheim welcomed back some injured players to the preseason on Wednesday night:

Beckett Sennecke, Pavel Mintyukov and Nathan Gaucher will all be in the Ducks' lineup for their game tonight vs. Utah. All had been recovering from injury. Lukas Dostal will star and go the distance.

— Eric Stephens (@icemancometh) October 2, 2024

Notable that Jackson LaCombe again ran the team’s top PP unit for this game. He sure has been getting a lot of power play time so far…

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Back in Tuesday's Ramblings, I started talking about my point projections for defencemen. They mostly focused on high-end options like Dougie Hamilton and Josh Morrissey, so go check that out for players that are mostly in the upper echelon.

Today's Ramblings will be looking more at the depth options. This is where league-winning value can be found, so it's very much worth reviewing them. A reminder on some of the parameters:

• All players are projected for 82 games.
• In a small change from prior Ramblings on projections, I have addedrookies. Age adjustments on the entire player pool have not been completed yet, though.
• Assumptions are made to roles. Who plays true number-1 minutes, who is probably on the bottom pair, who gets power play time (and how much of it), and so on. One example of this is Mike Matheson and Lane Hutson in Montreal. Matheson is the top power play guy for now, but there is a challenger coming, so I have Hutson taking 15% of the top PP time this season. If he takes 50%, or 0%, that changes the equation, but those are the kinds of assumptions being made.
• I am going to release a skater rankings based on multi-cat formats in Tuesday's Ramblings, but not my full projections. We have projections available as part of the 2024-25 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide, which is available in the Dobber Shop, and which has been constantly updated throughout the preseason.

Let's get to some projections. Data used is from Natural Stat Trick, Frozen Tools, and AllThreeZones.

Calgary's Blue Line

There has been lots of discussion about what to do with MacKenzie Weegar's 20-goal season, whether Daniil Miromanov is a top power play option, and where Rasmus Andersson fits in. My assumption, based on their usage post-Trade Deadline last season and what's happened so far in the preseason, is that Weegar gets most of the top PP minutes this season, Andersson mixes in sometimes, and Miromanov has some PP2 time though Tyson Barrie throws a wrench into things. All told, I have two Calgary defencemen worth drafting in most multi-cat formats, and this is where they sit:

A big reason for Weegar's 50-plus projection is his ice time. It is a full season without Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev, and replacements like Barrie, Miromanov, and Jake Bean are not big-minute threats. From March 1^st onward last season, Weegar skated 24:52 per game. My projections for this season have him around 24:10 per game, or an additional 75 seconds per game from last year's overall average. That additional ice time, a good chunk of it on the power play, helps soften the blow from a decline in shooting percentage. If he can be this kind of producer, with his shot/hit/block potential, it is reasonable for him to be a top-10 blue line option.

In 2023-24, Andersson failed to crack the 40-point plateau for the first time in three seasons despite having a higher points-per-60 minutes rate at even strength (1.2/60) than the prior two seasons (1.13). Losing that top power play time is a tough break for his fantasy value.

Carolina Changes

Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce are gone while Shayne Gostisbehere and Sean Walker were added to the roster. Gostisbehere is going to run the top PP unit, and Walker will take some of the missing even-strength minutes, but Carolina had three defencemen skate at least 35% of the even strength time available last season, and two of them are on new teams. Walker can take some of those minutes, but Burns could see an uptick in usage after a down year, so this is where the top projections are:

Gostisbehere's makes sense, given his top PP status. It is entirely dependent on that power play, though, as roughly half his point projection is derived from the man advantage. Something to keep in mind.

When age adjustments are done, Burns probably comes down to around 40 points, but if he sees an uptick in usage, he could push for 200 shots and 100 blocks again. There is a lot of risk because he's now in his age-39 season, but there is still some upside to his game if he can stay consistent.

Utah's New Look

All offseason, one player I've been very high on is Mikhail Sergachev. In the one season where he ran Tampa Bay's top PP unit, he managed 64 points. He is expected to run Arizona's top PP unit and with the team's top stars rebound in their even strength scoring, my projection for Sergachev is just over 60 points. He is still an excellent draft value.

However, that does change Sean Durzi's role. I thought his projection was going to get nuked, but he's just shy of the 40-point mark:

It is a drop from the 2023-24 season and largely driven by the loss of the top PP role, but the team's expected rise in even strength scoring is helping float his point production. He is still projected for around 22 minutes a game and he put up 2.1 blocks per game last season skating 22:43 per contest. Like Burns earlier, there is still some secondary value here, and a lot more if he ever gets that top PP role back.

Something in San Jose

As expected, the San Jose blue line isn't boasting much point upside – there is one defenceman projected here for more than 25 points. It is noteworthy that in training camp, prospect Luca Cagnoni was getting a lot of top PP reps, but Jake Walman has taken over that role as camp has worn on. We will see if Cagnoni breaks camp with the team due to injuries elsewhere, but I'm skeptical he plays anything close to a full season. The assumption is that Walman takes the vast majority of PP1 time this season with Henry Thrun getting infrequent top PP minutes, being largely stuck on PP2. That gives me this projection for Walman:

On top of a big PP role, there is also an assumption of a big even-strength ice time rise for Walman. Last year in Detroit, he skated 16:38 per game at evens. Last year in San Jose, four defencemen exceeded that mark and two are gone from the team. Cody Ceci probably takes some EVTOI, but the bet is Walman does too. Add in some penalty killing, and the projection has him between 22-23 minutes. San Jose might not be a good team, but they had a decent power play last year, and an additional 3-plus minutes per game for Walman will only help his peripherals – he averaged under 20 minutes per game in his two full Detroit seasons but managed over 2.1 blocks per contest.  

Drew Doughty's Injury

A preseason injury to Doughty is going to keep him out for a while. The official designation is month-to-month, but one bit of news was that he would be available for the Four Nations Cup in mid-February. Reading between the lines, that likely means no longer than three months, so the estimation in my projections is he misses half the season.

The question is who gets his minutes because Doughty was the top PP option in 2023-24 and he skated over 20 minutes a game at even strength alone. With Matt Roy now in Washington added to Doughty's injury, about 38 minutes per game of even strength time alone is up for grabs. Add in the power play time, and there is a lot here.

It seems near-certain Brandt Clarke takes the top PP time while Jordan Spence is the PP2 option. It is also notable that in Los Angeles's preseason game after the Doughty injury, Kyle Burroughs was over 25 minutes, and Spence was over 21 minutes. The assumption is that Burroughs takes most (not all) of Doughty's EV minutes, Spence is on the second pair with secondary PP time, and Clarke is on the third pair. This is how Spence and Clarke stack up with the adjustments to Doughty's injury:

A big reason for the similar projection is that Spence is expected to get a lot more even strength time, at least for half the season. Of course, if Clarke takes off and starts really fulfilling his upside, he can push past 40 points. However, Los Angeles really loves its veteran defencemen, which is why Joel Edmundson was signed, Kyle Burroughs was brought in, and Andreas Englund is still on the roster. Even with top PP time, Clarke is in tough to skate more than 18 minutes a game (maybe even 17 minutes) unless he blows the doors off.